There are a ton of uncertainties with the MLB trade deadline less than a week away, but two longstanding truths made things a bit clearer for two specific fan bases. The Seattle Mariners desperately need more offense and the Tampa Bay Rays rarely hand out costly long-term contracts. These two trains of thought converged in the middle of the night.
The Mariners are acquiring 2023 All-Star outfielder Randy Arozarena in exchange for prospects Aidan Smith, Brody Hopkins and a player to be named later. Both of the two known commodities ranked outside the top-10 in Seattle's farm system, which is somewhat surprising given that Arozarena is under 30, has multiple seasons with an OPS+ of 120 or more under his belt and is enjoying a red-hot summer.
Though, the Rays' track record is tough to dispute. They have a carefully crafted reputation of dealing away homegrown talents before they enter free agency and securing valuable future assets and hidden gems in return. It is an unbelievably challenging way to run a baseball team, but the small-market ballclub consistently manages to not just survive, but thrive in the MLB.
That is not the case this season, however. While Seattle and Tampa Bay are both in striking distance, they are also precariously positioned within the American League playoff race. Swift and significant action is probably essential if either team is going to make it to October. And that is exactly what just happened. The only thing is, however, that each franchise clearly views their 2024 prospects in starkly different manners.
With Randy Arozarena officially on the move, we are going to assign a letter grade to the Mariners and Rays for this blockbuster trade.
Mariners' Grade for Arozarena addition
The Chicago White Sox are 51 games below .500, and yet, even they have a higher overall batting average than the Mariners (.216). At first glance, Arozarena is not going to boost that MLB-worst number much, if at all, since he is batting just .211. The 29-year-old left fielder is not the same player who started the year, though.
He was among the least productive hitters in baseball through the first two months of the season, residing well below the Mendoza Line at .158. Although Seattle was floated as a prime landing spot for him, it felt pointless to trade for a statistical liability. But when the calendar flipped to June, everything started to click. Arozarena has reestablished himself as the impactful bat the M's covet.
He is torching the ball during July, posting an OPS greater than .900 to go along with 19 hits and seven doubles. His awakening had an infectious effect on the entire team, as Tampa claws its way back up the standings. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto believes he can ignite the slumping Mariners as well.
His offseason acquisitions (Mitch Garver, Mitch Haniger and Jorge Polanco) have netted shockingly awful returns and the lineup is collectively failing to support a pitching staff that boasts the MLB's best ERA. As a result, a 10-game divisional lead has grotesquely transformed into a one-game deficit. Being swept at home by the Los Angeles Angels was evidently the organization's breaking point.
And that might just be the blessing in disguise the Mariners need. Arozarena is under team control until the end of the 2026 season and is not costing them one of their top-level prospects. Dipoto has made several missteps lately, but this maneuver looks quite magnificent as of now.
Grade: A
Grading the Rays for their Randy Arozarena return value
We have already established that trading a viable player who is unlikely to fit their long-term plans epitomizes the Rays' front-office philosophy. However, the timing of this deal is definitely odd, considering how the team is currently trending.
Tampa split with the New York Yankees and took two of three versus the Toronto Blue Jays on a seven-game road trip to begin its second half. The next five matchups on its schedule come against the depleted Cincinnati Reds and last-place Miami Marlins. That is what the average fan calls a golden opportunity to get back into the playoff picture, which is not far out of the Rays' grasp (trail Kansas City Royals by four games for final AL Wild Card slot).
President of baseball operations Erik Neander does not let emotion or optimism interfere with his methods, though. He clearly deems the Randy Arozarena trade to be a prudent course of action for a barely-above-.500 club to take. But would it not have made more sense to wait until next year or this offseason, or even next week to secure a more notable bundle of players?
Don't get me wrong, there is plenty of promise heading to the Rays' farm system. Outfielder Aidan Smith, who was the Mariners' No. 12 prospect, was cruising in Single-A Modesto (.284 batting average, nine homers and 42 RBIs). His teammate, right-handed pitcher Brody Hopkins (ranked No. 22 in Seattle's organization) has a 2.90 ERA and 95 strikeouts in 18 starts in 2024.
Both of these guys, and the player to be named later, could be key contributors several years from now. That is the Tampa Bay way, after all. It is not sufficient value on paper, however. Randy Arozarena, even in a down year, should have commanded a top-10 prospect from Seattle.
The Rays might have gotten a tad too creative this time.
Grade: B-
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