College basketball season is here, and that means the return of the always entertaining SEC basketball predictions.
I started doing these several seasons ago on my previous site (Southeast Hoops) and people loved it, so they are back for another season.
There are lots of intriguing matchups for opening night of the new season, and many SEC teams are trying to get off to a strong start in what should be another competitive campaign around the league.
As for the picks? I’ve always made straight-up picks on who will win each game. However, if there is more demand for picks against the spread, I’ll add that to the repertoire this season (hit me up on Twitter @theblakelovell if that’s your preference).
And for those who want an audio version with random thoughts on the games, here’s a Periscope from Monday night.
Let’s get to the SEC basketball predictions for Nov. 5.
Season Predictions Record: 0-0
Georgia (-16.5) vs. Western Carolina: Anthony Edwards is the real deal, but how far the Bulldogs go this season will depend on who emerges around him and standout junior Rayshaun Hammonds. The Bulldogs must also fix two big weaknesses – 3-point shooting and free-throw shooting. Georgia was 289th nationally in shooting just 32.2 percent from beyond the arc last season and 333rd nationally with 15.8 turnovers per game. As for Western Carolina, it struggled to only seven wins in Mark Prosser’s first season mostly due to finishing as the nation’s worst in turnovers with 18.2 per game. The Pack Line Defense is never easy to prepare for, but Edwards and company should get the win here. Prediction: Georgia 82, Western Carolina 63.
Florida (-19.5) vs. North Florida: The Gators, on paper, appear to be a legitimate national title contender. Adding Kerry Blackshear Jr. was huge, as it gives them an experienced player with tremendous offensive talent. Defensively, Florida has finished in the top 25 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency ratings in each of Mike White’s five seasons thus far in Gainesville. And defense will be important in this game since Matthew Driscoll may have one of his best teams at North Florida. The Ospreys return four starters and will continue to play fast, which could present some challenges. Florida won by 32 when these two teams played last season, and while it should be a better game, Blackshear and company figure to take care of business. Prediction: Florida 84, North Florida 68.
Tennessee (-29) vs. UNC Asheville: With a big three of Lamonte Turner, Jordan Bowden, and Josiah-Jordan James, the Vols should once again compete for an NCAA Tournament bid. But the non-conference portion of the schedule will tell us a lot about how players like Eves Pons and John Fulkerson step into much bigger roles. UNC Asheville won just four games a season ago and was one of the worst defensive teams in the country. One of the main reasons for that was due to freshmen playing over 75 percent of the team’s minutes. While the Bulldogs will be older and better, Tennessee is the pick. Prediction: Tennessee 78, UNC Asheville 54.
Arkansas (-18) vs. Rice: The Eric Musselman era begins in Fayetteville, and the Razorbacks boast one of the SEC’s top backcourts. Of course, what everyone is talking about is Arkansas’s lack of size, with Musselman’s tallest rotation player likely being 6-8 sophomore Reggie Chaney. That will force the guard group to be active in rebounding if Arkansas wants to be a tournament team. Rice had five freshmen that played 20 or more minutes per game last season, so that should help with experience. But the Owls need to improve defensively to make big strides (294th in defensive efficiency). I’ll take the Hogs since Bud Walton Arena should be rocking. Prediction: Arkansas 84, Rice 69.
Mississippi State (-16.5) vs. FIU: Reggie Perry should have a breakout season after impressive NBA scouts this summer, and he’ll undoubtedly be the driving force for Ben Howland’s squad. But the Bulldogs may look a little different offensively in non-conference play as starting point guard Nick Weatherspoon is suspended for the first 10 games. Not having him might not be a huge deal against certain opponents, but FIU plays faster than any team in the country and forces a lot of turnovers. The Panthers won 20 games a season ago and return four starters, so this is far from a lock for Mississippi State. Perry should be the difference, but as the wise philosopher Lee Corso says, this could be closer than the experts think. Prediction: Mississippi State 83, FIU 74.
Alabama (-7.5) vs. Penn: Nate Oats has a very talented roster in his first season with the Crimson Tide, and it’s why I expect them to be one of the better teams in the SEC. Kira Lewis is a perfect fit in the aggressive style that Oats wants to play, and there are good shooters and other versatile players around him. But this matchup won’t be easy against a Penn team that sports a deep rotation. AJ Brodeur and Devon Goodman are a productive duo that will challenge Alabama’s defense, and the Quakers will try to find a lot of open looks from the perimeter. It’s hard to know exactly what to expect from Alabama’s attack on offense since players will likely still be adjusting to certain roles, but Oats’ team should find a way to get the victory. Prediction: Alabama 83, Penn 73.
Auburn (-14.5) vs. Georgia Southern: The Tigers have a lot of confidence after their first-ever Final Four appearance, and now Bruce Pearl must tweak a few things after losing several key contributors from that group. That will likely force Auburn to play at a slower pace than in recent seasons, with 6-11 senior Austin Wiley being the main focus. But Pearl also brings in a talented freshman group, with Issac Okoro expected to be one of the most impactful in the SEC. Georgia Southern will push the ball up the court after finishing ninth in average offensive possession length last season at 15.1 seconds, but there are unknowns after the graduation of Tookie Brown. The Tigers may work through some issues early on offense, but there’s enough balance to get the win in this spot. Prediction: Auburn 82, Georgia Southern 65.
Kentucky vs. Michigan State (-2.5): In case you didn’t know, both of these teams are pretty good. And honestly, it’s tough to predict how opening games between these types of teams will unfold. We learned that with Duke and Kentucky a season ago. For the Wildcats, there are the usual questions about how quickly the chemistry comes together and whether there’s enough outside shooting. However, John Calipari’s roster is loaded, which is no surprise. Michigan State boasts a player of the year candidate in Cassius Winston, and that’s one of many reasons the Spartans are essentially the consensus No. 1 team in the preseason. This is essentially a toss-up, but I’ll lean towards Winston making a key play down the stretch to give Michigan State the win. Prediction: Michigan State 74, Kentucky 71.
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Blake Lovell is a national college basketball writer for ClutchPoints. He’s also a contributor for the Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook and Athlon Sports College Basketball Preview magazine. He hosts two podcasts: Marching to Madness (CBB) and Establish the Pass (NFL).
You can follow him on Twitter @theblakelovell. Also, be sure to follow the ClutchPoints NCAA Facebook page for more great CBB discussion.
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