The 2024 NCAA Tournament has been whittled down to just two teams, and tonight, the Connecticut Huskies and Purdue Boilermakers will square off in what has all the makings of an iconic National Championship Game. While UConn attempts to become the first team in seventeen years to repeat as National Champions, Purdue aims to “pull a Virginia,” and by that I mean winning the National Championship just one year after losing in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament to a 16-seed.

Now before we get started, I feel as though I should acknowledge that I'm a longtime fan of the UConn Huskies, and I typically don't hide my bias all that well. As you'll soon see, some of my bold predictions are rooted in my own personal feelings about the upcoming game, and if that's bothersome, it likely means you aren't rooting for UConn tonight anyway, which means we can't be friends for the next 12-to-24 hours.

(I kid.)

Let's get down to it!

As usual, UConn's offensive output will be balanced among the starting five

Thus far in the NCAA Tournament, Donovan Clingan has led the team in scoring in the 1st Round and in the Elite Eight. Tristen Newton led the team in scoring in the 2nd round. Cam Spencer led the team in scoring in the Sweet Sixteen. And Stephon Castle led all Huskies scorers in their Final Four win over Alabama. As things stand right now, these are the scoring averages for the Huskies starters in the NCAA Tournament:

Donovan Clingan – 16.2 points

Cam Spencer – 13.8 points

Tristen Newton – 13.4 points

Stephon Castle – 12.0 points

Alex Karaban – 10.6 points

And in the regular season, the Huskies were just as balanced:

Tristen Newton – 14.9 points

Cam Spencer – 14.4 points

Alex Karaban – 13.5 points

Donovan Clingan – 13.1 points

Stephon Castle – 11.0 points

I don't expect anything different in the National Championship Game. The Huskies will run their offense — which, as I documented here, is a nightmare to try to stop — and work for the right looks all game long. Because the Huskies offense is built on constant player and ball movement, there's really nothing that Purdue can do to get the Huskies out of their offensive rhythm. The Boilermakers will just need to do their best to stay disciplined, contest every shot as best they can, and hope that the Huskies continue to shoot well below their season average from three-point range in the NCAA Tournament.

Donovan Clingan will find himself in early foul trouble…

Just trying to mentally prepare myself for this ahead of time so I don't lose my mind and scare the hell out of my dog while the game is being played.

… And Dan Hurley will lose his f***ing mind about it

Actually, on second thought, I don't know about this one. Dan Hurley is usually so mild-mannered during the game. Even though this is the biggest stage UConn has played on all year, I imagine he'll find a way to keep his cool.

(I kid.)

Samson Johnson and Hassan Diarra will swing the momentum of the game

Coach Dan Hurley has seven and a half players he legitimately trusts — I count Jaylin Stewart as the half — and Samson Johnson and Hassan Diarra are two of those seven. That's because there is very little drop off when Johnson and Diarra come in off the bench for two of the Huskies starters. No, Samson Johnson does not have the size and strength of Donovan Clingan, nor is he the consistent scoring threat that Clingan has become. And no, Hassan Diarra is not the dynamic play-maker that Tristen Newton is, nor does he have the size of a Stephon Castle or the outside shooting touch of Cam Spencer. But both bench mainstays find ways to positively impact the Huskies when they're on the floor. It never feels like there is too much of a drop off.

A great example of this came in the Elite Eight against Illinois. It was Hassan Diarra who knocked down the three that sent UConn on what wound up being a 30-0 run that turned a 23-23 game into a 53-23 blowout in about eight minutes of game action. Prior to that Diarra triple, it was beginning to look like the Illini would take momentum into the halftime locker room. That three swung the whole game, and in the midst of that run, Samson Johnson made multiple plays on both ends of the floor that helped the Huskies continue to pile it on against a more-overmatched-by-the-minute Illinois team.

IF Donovan Clingan finds himself in foul trouble — again, I'm preparing for it just so I don't have a mental breakdown tonight — it will mean that Samson Johnson needs to log bigger minutes than he's accustomed to. Dealing with the much larger Zach Edey in the post will be one hell of a task for Johnson, but where he can make Edey work is in transition. There are few bigs in the country who run the floor as well as Samson Johnson, and that's where he can really hurt Purdue.

UConn WON'T win by double-digits 

Normally, saying that a team who is favored by only 6.5 points won't win their upcoming game by double-digits wouldn't necessarily qualify as a bold prediction, but you surely know by now that UConn has won their previous eleven games in the NCAA Tournament by double-figures, with an average margin of victory of 22 points. Going through one NCAA Tournament without a single-digit win in unprecedented. Going through a second consecutive NCAA Tournament without a single-digit win is a little too much for my simple mind to comprehend. That's why even though I'm picking UConn to win the game, I'm going to say they come away with a nine point victory over the Boilermakers.

Cam Spencer will win the Final Four Most Outstanding Player 

Back in February I wrote about how for any team that hopes to knock UConn off during the postseason, the key was to keep Cam Spencer in check. Even though Cam has spent just one year in Storrs, he just feels like a Connecticut Husky, doesn't he? The confidence he plays with, the way he plays to the crowd, the tendency to make the back-breaking play that leads to a frazzled opposing coach burning a timeout. He's exactly the kind of player the Huskies needed this year, but the numbers show that if you can limit his production, you might have a chance to sneak out an upset. This is the stat I used back in February:

Cam Spencer in three UConn losses – 99 minutes, 7-for-27 field goals, 2-for-14 from 3-point range, 1-for-3 free throws, 17 points, 10 rebounds, 7 assists 

And then I went on to say this:

If I'm any opposing coach who is dealt the unenviable task of having to face UConn in the NCAA Tournament, I'm doing all I can — within reason — to keep Cam Spencer in check. I'm running him off the three-point line and I'm sending occasional doubles at him, helping off of iffy outside shooters like Newton and freshman Stephen Castle, each who are shooting just 30 percent from distance this year. I'm doing all I can to make sure that there's never a moment in the game when I have to call a timeout in response to a Cam Spencer bucket, which allows him to walk off the court screaming his lungs out, whipping the UConn crowd up into a frenzy. If I can do that, I'm at least giving myself a puncher's chance to keep Dan Hurley and co. from cutting down the nets for the second straight year. 

If Purdue manages to do this, does it guarantee a Boilermakers victory? Of course not. As I've written already, you don't just take one thing away from UConn and feel good about your chances. And for what it's worth, I don't think that Purdue is going to take Cam Spencer out of this game. I fully anticipate that this will be a dog fight, and sometime in the final few minutes of the game, Cam Spencer will hit a big shot, and walk off the court screaming his lungs out, whipping the UConn crowd in attendance in Glendale into a frenzy. And for that, he'll be named the Most Outstanding Player.