In every era, there are dominant teams that go on championship runs for years at a time. The 1980s had the Boston Celtics with Larry Bird and Los Angeles Lakers with Magic Johnson. Then it went to Michael Jordan's Chicago Bulls, to Kobe Bryant's Lakers, to Tim Duncan's San Antonio Spurs. Then to LeBron James' Miami Heat, and now to Stephen Curry's Golden State Warriors.
The same formula for dynasties is pretty clear. Acquire one of the best players of your generation on your team and then build around them with other star players. Sure, we could discuss the lack of parity in the league today, but that discussion just sparks disagreement and hate. Enjoying great basketball while it's in front of you should be the goal of anyone who truly loves the game, not just the players.
In the next couple of years, the landscape of the league will change. Budding stars will become superstars. Aging superstars will fade away. Teams will draft the next generational star. All the player movement across the league will cause ripple effects that will change the NBA as we know it.
Nobody can predict what exactly will happen. Not even the GMs and players across the league know quite how the league will shake out. However, one thing is for certain: Father Time is creeping, and he will shift the paradigm of the Association as we know it.
Let's apply this to the current state of basketball in California. Right now, the best teams in the state, when healthy, are in this order:
- Golden State Warriors
- Los Angeles Lakers
- Los Angeles Clippers
- Sacramento Kings
In the next couple of years, these teams will each face contract expirations, free-agency hopes and dreams, and the growth and decline of their own players. How will it shake out? Let's take our best guess at who will be on top of this group.
4. Sacramento Kings
I can't wait for every single Kings apologist to be up in my Twitter mentions over putting such a young and talented squad in last. There are a few reasons why, but none of them are because the Kings don't have young talent. They're oozing in it.
De'Aaron Fox will very likely be a top point guard two years from now. Buddy Hield will be hitting his prime, and Marvin Bagley III could be averaging over 20 points per game.
Even if all those players are successful and the Kings have a nice core, expecting Vlade Divac and his front office of inadequate player evaluators to pull themselves out of mediocrity after years of failure … is highly unlikely. The Kings had DeMarcus Cousins, Rudy Gay and Isaiah Thomas with coach Mike Malone in 2014, and they still weren't able to build a roster around them that would allow the Kings to reach the postseason.
They traded Cousins away at last because they could never build a winner around him. What's to say times have changed? Until the Kings are accountable for their lack of modern player evaluation, I cannot expect more than first-round exits and another head coaching change in the next year. Can they be a playoff team? Absolutely. But an actual contender?
History repeats itself.
3. Golden State Warriors
The Warriors should absolutely be one of the top teams in the Western Conference. They likely will have two or three of their current superstar core of Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, and DeMarcus Cousins.
But let's look at the age of each of these players two years from now:
- Curry will be 32
- Durant will be 32
- Green will be 30
- Thompson will be 30
- Cousins will be 30
That's an old team, but especially considering the amount of wear and tear they've had by playing all the way through the NBA Finals over these past few years, they've nearly added another two years of playing on top of their careers.
They'll each be in their 30s, and it's quite known that point guards don't age well. Curry will still be an effective shooter, but he won't have the same speed or dexterity. Green is already declining as an athlete, which defines his whole game.
Plus, if Cousins or Durant leave to play elsewhere, a team with an older Curry, Thompson and not very much depth isn't very promising. Sure, they'll be able to replace those superstar players with more depth around Curry. But Curry will be 33 years old in the playoffs. With other superteams likely to be made in the next few years, it won't be surprising to see the Warriors potentially lose their superiority over the NBA.
2. Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers have the opportunity to build one of the best teams of all time around LeBron James. They have some of the best young assets in the NBA to draw in players in free agency or to even acquire via trade. James knows this and didn't even need Rob Pelinka or Magic Johnson to acquire another star around him.
It's very possible that Anthony Davis joins the team in the next few years. They are a lucrative destination for any top star talent who would like to play with James. A lineup with just James and Davis alone is enough to reach the Western Conference Finals.
It remains to be seen how the Lakers will build around James. They could even trade their current assets for Bradley Beal and then add another star through free agency. James and co. have all the assets and cap space to build a championship contender extremely well.
1. Los Angeles Clippers
This may shock and surprise many, but not to the trained eye. The Clippers hired basketball genius and the logo Jerry West away from the Warriors a summer ago. He set forth a multi-year plan for the Clippers to start winning again. Owner Steve Balmer is “trusting the process” and seems to have allowed West to have creative control in his consulting position.
The Clippers could have nearly $60 million in cap space this summer. Their books are currently almost totally clean for 2020. The only players they have signed through 2021 is Lou Williams for $8 million a year (but only $1.5 million guaranteed), Jerome Robinson for a shade under $4 million (team option), and budding rookie Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for a little over $4 million (team option).
West has nearly a clean slate to work with. Not only could he bring in a star like Kawhi Leonard, who has been a name connected with the team for a long time, but he's also allowing for a new culture to be built from the top. The front office is instilling a winning culture, something very akin to the Miami Heat or West’s Warriors.
With not only free-agency splashes but with trades and draft picks designed to build a long-term winner, the Clippers have all the potential in the world to be the best team in the NBA.
***
There you have it. The best California team in two years from now will be the Clippers. All four teams have a chance of being contenders in the Western Conference. But the best run organization with the most cap space has the best chance of being the best team in California.
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