The New Orleans Pelicans won seven of their last eight games going into the NBA All-Star break. That's the good news. Unfortunately, the injury bug is back again. Dyson Daniels will be out for at least another three to four weeks and Willie Green has about 22 minutes per night to reallocate until the 20-year-old Australian returns. Calls for rookie Jordan Hawkins have been heard but Trey Murphy III should be the first in line to fill in that extra available on-court time.
The Pelicans have a few flaws to address during a 27-game runway to the NBA Playoffs. Murphy's readiness is one. Green only has so much time left to see exactly how much the Virginia alum can provide in a playoff series. Murphy’s size, shooting ability, and athleticism should be a net positive on both ends of the court but shooting and defense have been an issue. Murphy's aim has been surprisingly off. He hit 38% of all three-pointers as a rookie and over 40% last season. Murphy is hovering around 36% this season but was good for only 32% in the last 15 games before the NBA All-Star break.
The Pelicans need to get Murphy back in rhythm on offense but no one in the league doubts his shooting ability despite the current slump. It's Murphy's decision-making on closeouts and defensive versatility that are in question going into the postseason. Green has to find out what roles occasionally tentative Murphy is ready to play on his surgically repaired knee. The front office needs to see more on-ball creation and fewer back door cuts causing Murphy problems before handing out a possibly cap-crippling contract extension.
Pelicans Big Three plus Trey Murphy a huge miss
The Pelicans are facing a roster crunch with a luxury tax bill looming in the future. Something has to give. Murphy is eligible for a nine-figure rookie-scale contract extension this summer. If Murphy wants a max-level extension he has to do more than hide on defense and float around behind the three-point line on offense. Like his shooting numbers, his block and steal rates have taken a dip. It limits how Green can successfully deploy Murphy in different lineups.
The New Orleans starting five has a -2.4 Net Rating. Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, and CJ McCollum have a negative net rating as well. The Pelicans Big Three is terrible in clutch situations and needs someone from the bench to step up soon. Sadly, the star trio plus Murphy has a -10.1 net rating over a 71-minute sample size. Surprisingly, they are the worst-scoring foursome (102.4 OffRating) with more than 60 minutes played together.
The Big Three plus Murphy are a poor rebounding group that almost refuses to share the ball. The team's best four-man lineups have assist-rate percentages around 65%-70%. Murphy and the Stars are at a 53% assist percentage. They only grab 65% of defensive rebounds, the second-fewest among the 25 most-played lineups. Their effective field goal (49%) and true shooting percentages (52%) are dead last.
Murphy's 12.7 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 1.6 assists per game are only worth so much if it does not help accentuate the skillset of the All-Stars. Ingram, Williamson, and Murphy have played 107 minutes together, posting a -5.3 Net Rating. Green's defense-first philosophy to fix all issues should apply well here. Murphy has contested 49 three-pointers and deflected 48 passes in 30 games played.
Those defensive numbers are disappointing considering Murphy's skillset. Jordan Hawkins has better contest rates and Green will barely let the rookie leave the bench on account of subpar defense. And the Big Three plus Murphy group also cannot stop fouling. They have the highest opponent free throw attempt rate among the Pelicans' 25 most-played lineups.
The shooting numbers will come around, hopefully in time for a postseason run. Still, Murphy might not be the active defender Herb Jones is, but he has to stand his ground without giving up easy opportunities. If not, the front office will face some difficult decisions this summer.
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