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For two seasons in a row now, the Buffalo Bills have topped the AFC East, and they are hoping to keep that up, as they target a deeper run in the playoffs in the upcoming 2022 NFL campaign. Most of the attention when it comes to the Bills will understandably be on quarterback Josh Allen. The signal-caller has still to hit his ceiling, which is a scary thought for opposing defensive coordinators because he’s already shown he can be a massive headache to opposing teams. Allen, however, is not the surprise package the Bills have under their sleeves. With that said, let’s talk about someone who might just be Buffalo’s best-kept secret for the 2022 NFL season.
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Bills X-Factor To Emerge In 2022 NFL Season
Gabriel Davis
When a topic shifts to the Bills' passing attack, Gabriel Davis isn't someone who'd be thought of first. Stefon Diggs is definitely the top downfield option for Allen.
But the 2022 NFL season just seems like the perfect time for Davis to finally break out. Cole Beasley is gone after getting released by the Bills this offseason and Emmanuel Sanders' odds of returning to Buffalo aren't looking high. And while the Bills recently added Jamison Crowder to their wide receivers room, between him and Davis, it's the latter who has more familiarity with Allen.
Plus, the 29-year-old Crowder has pretty much reached his ceiling in the NFL. Davis, on the other hand, has yet to hit his full potential, and that's something the Bills are looking to unlock this coming 2022 NFL season when they get him to line up directly across a field-stretcher like Diggs.
Davis might not even be viewed as a sleeper anymore by a lot of people. After all, the last time we saw him on the field, he managed to put together an unforgettable scintillating performance for the Bills, albeit in a 42-36 overtime loss to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2022 AFC Divisional round. In that game, Davis led all players from both sides with 201 receiving yards and four touchdowns on eight catches and 10 targets. Diggs didn't even have a decent performance in that game, as the Bills' WR1 finished with just three receptions on six targets for a mere seven yards.
Diggs will and should remain as the Bills' top receiver in the 2022 NFL season, but Davis might just end up as the team's leader in receiving yards with the way he's learning to take advantage of Diggs' gravity. Tight end Knox is also in the mix of Buffalo's air attack, and he'll wreak even more havoc in the red zone. That's an area where Davis must show improvements. In the 2021 NFL season, Davis was third on the team with 16 red-zone targets behind Diggs (33) and Knox (22), but he only pulled down eight catches of those passes.
That being said, of those receptions, six went for touchdowns. He only had 13.11 red-zone target share that season, and that rate should go up with Beasley and Sanders no longer with the team. That means Allen and the Bills will have to find that 20 percent red-zone target rate somewhere else. Diggs and Knox will see their rates get a bump, and it must be the same case for Davis, who stands to be among the chief target beneficiaries.
It’s not just in the 20-yard area where Davis can be expected to be more productive for Buffalo’s passing game. Pro Football Focus underscored Davis’ value as a big-play potential based on his numbers over the past couple of NFL seasons in spite of underwhelming target distribution.
Davis has always thrived as a deep threat: His 500 receiving yards from deep passes is a top-30 mark among NFL wideouts over the last two seasons, and he ranked fifth in the nation in deep yards in his final season in college (620). What he hasn’t been able to control throughout his young career has been the target distribution. His 74 targets were a career-high this past year, but it still trailed the top three pass-catchers on the 2021 Bills roster.
The targets will come for Davis in the 2022 NFL season. The Bills know what kind of talent they have in him and it would be a waste if they couldn’t capitalize on Davis’ skillset. Davis has two seasons left in his current contract, including the 2022 campaign, so there’s also an onus for him to put together a huge season if he wants to get big pay raise the next time his agent sits down to negotiate for a new deal.
