2024 NBA Finals: 5 factors that will determine Celtics-Mavericks winner

When the 2023-24 NBA season began, everyone expected the Boston Celtics to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals after adding Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis. What many did not expect was for the Dallas Mavericks to evolve into one of the most solidified teams in the league. The Mavs made excellent moves to bring in Daniel Gafford and PJ Washington at the trade deadline, but the story for this group has been the backcourt duo of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, a duo many are calling the most dynamic pairing in NBA history. Now, on the verge of the 2024 NBA Finals beginning, we are given a matchup that features several storybook-like headlines.

Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are looking to end all the criticism that surrounds them by claiming their first championship. Porzingis will be facing the Mavs, with whom he spent three seasons. Irving will head back to Boston, where he is public enemy No. 1 after leaving the organization for the Brooklyn Nets in 2019. There is also a spotlight being cast on Doncic, as he can cement his legacy as one of the greatest international players this league has ever seen with his first championship and NBA Finals MVP award at just 25 years old.

If there is one thing that is apparent before this series even begins, it is that this championship means a lot to both organizations. Whereas the Celtics are looking to claim the 18th title in team history and their first since 2008, the Mavericks are looking to capture their second championship in franchise history. In doing so, Dallas would become the 12th team in the league with multiple titles.

Funny enough, the last time the Mavs won the NBA Finals, Jason Kidd was helping lead the way next to Dirk Nowitzki, who many tend to call the greatest international player ever. Now, Kidd has a chance to lead Dallas to their second championship, only this time he is their head coach and may be witnessing the start of Doncic's reign as the greatest basketball player from Europe.

The 2024 NBA Finals are about to begin, and there is still a lot to discuss regarding this championship series. Only four wins separate one of these two teams from the Larry O'Brien Championship Trophy, but there will be nothing easy about staking claim to four victories. So much can happen over the course of the next two weeks, and these five factors will directly influence whether the Celtics or Mavericks win the 2024 NBA Finals.

Who is going to guard Luka Doncic?

This isn't just a question the Celtics have pondered since advancing to the NBA Finals, but a question the entire league has been trying to figure out for quite some time. Quite simply, there is no stopping Luka Doncic. He has earned the right to be called one of the best players in the league, and he is going to put up impressive numbers every time he takes the court. You can't stop greatness, yet you can look to contain it.

That has to be Boston's mindset regarding Luka in this series.

If the Celtics let Doncic have his way in one-on-one situations, regardless of who is guarding him, he is going to have 30-point, possibly even 40-point, nights. Not to mention, he's capable of registering a triple-double in any game, which would be bad news for the Celtics, seeing as he would be getting others involved on offense, specifically from the perimeter.

The Mavericks' offense operates out of pick-and-roll sets where Doncic is the decision-maker with the ball in his hands. Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, and Jaylen Brown may all take turns guarding Doncic, but the premise of the Celtics' defense must be focused on doubling Luka on every single pick-and-roll set. If Boston fails to do so and they opt to play one-on-one, they will be playing with fire.

There is no right way to guard Doncic. You can't force him to one side over the other, and you can't extend too far out on him because of his ability to throw lobs towards the rim for Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II. The key for the Celtics is simply being physical with him and setting a defensive tone early on. Doncic is never shy about voicing his opinions to the officials, so if the Celtics can get under his skin and be smart with their fouls against him, they will be able to set a physical tone for the entire series.

Boston has the capability to switch everything on Doncic, as well as double him and recover in the half-court. This must be the mindset to begin Game 1 on Thursday night.

The battle of the glass

The Celtics ranked first in defensive rebounding and second in total rebounds during the regular season. The Mavericks, during the playoffs, have ranked fourth in offensive rebounding and total rebounds. If you aren't following along with what is being said here, let me make it very simple: Rebounding is going to play a huge role in how this series plays out.

En route to the NBA Finals, the Celtics have lost just two games. Coincidentally enough, they were outrebounded in both of these losses. Although they were without Kristaps Porzingis for a vast majority of the playoffs, the fact of the matter is that Boston can be vulnerable on the glass against physical teams.

Well, Lively and Gafford have been putting in work on the glass, as have PJ Washington and Derrick Jones Jr. The Mavs, although the numbers may not say so, are a talented rebounding team that can create second- and third-chance scoring opportunities. With Doncic and Irving waiting to hunt their shots, this is something the Celtics cannot have happen.

On the flip side, the Mavs must find a way to crash the offensive glass in this series because the Celtics are too talented of an offense to go possession-for-possession with.

Jaylen Brown must lead Celtics' offense

As good as Jayson Tatum is, he has disappeared in big moments before. Tatum struggled in the 2022 NBA Finals against the Golden State Warriors, and he did not have that great of performances against the Miami Heat in the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals. While he has really looked good in the postseason to this point, the Mavericks are going to do everything they can to get the ball out of Tatum's hands.

That is why Jaylen Brown must step up and continue to lead the Celtics' offense in this NBA Finals series against the Mavs. Brown, one of the better two-way players in the league, was recently named Eastern Conference Finals MVP over Tatum after averaging 29.8 points and 5.0 rebounds per game while shooting 51.7 percent from the floor against the Indiana Pacers.

He also shot 37 percent from three-point range. With the ability to put the ball on the ground and get to his spots, Brown has been rolling as of late as a scorer.

This kind of efficiency will help set the Celtics apart from the Mavericks in the championship series.

Celtics' struggles winning back-to-back home games

The Celtics went 64-18 this season. Boston was by far the best team at home this year, with a 37-4 record in TD Garden. This has been the case over the last few seasons, as the Celtics always do a great job at defending their home floor.

However, that has not been the case in the playoffs. In fact, the Celtics have put together back-to-back wins on their home floor, without a road game in between, just three times in their last 10 playoff series dating back to 2022. Only one of these back-to-back home wins has come past the first round of the playoffs, this season in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Pacers.

For some odd reason, the Celtics have had trouble winning two straight playoff games on their home court, which doesn't bode well for them against a Mavericks team that was 25-16 on the road this season and has won seven of their nine road playoff games this year.

Defending their home court is going to be critical for both teams in this series, as that is where the momentum can sway for two very even teams. Should the Celtics win Game 1 and lose Game 2 on their home floor, they will be in trouble heading to Dallas for two games.

Kristaps Porzingis' health

Of course, one of the main talking points heading into the 2024 NBA Finals is Kristaps Porzingis' calf injury. Porzingis has not played since April 28, when he suffered a right soleus strain in Game 4 against the Miami Heat.

Although there was a sense of optimism that he would be able to return against the Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Celtics elected to keep him sidelined and get extra time to rest before the NBA Finals.

Now, all indications point in the direction of Porzingis being healthy enough to start Game 1 on Thursday night. This is a huge deal for Boston simply because of how the star big man has helped evolve their play on both offense and defense. Aside from being able to knock down shots after setting screens in pick-and-roll sets, Porzingis is great at getting to his spots in the mid-range area and hitting jumpers. As a result, this opens up more driving opportunities for Brown and Tatum since opposing teams need to stay linked to Porzingis and respect his shooting abilities.

On defense, Porzingis has been the Celtics' anchor. He not only averaged 1.9 blocks per game during the regular season, but teams think twice about driving to the rim when Porzingis is standing in the paint. The Latvian big man's ability to alter shots and force his opponents in other directions makes Jrue Holiday and Derrick White even stronger perimeter defenders than they already are.

Porzingis is the ultimate X-factor in this series for the Celtics. If he is available for every game, Dallas is going to have a hard time matching up with him because they won't want Dereck Lively II or Daniel Gafford hanging out on the perimeter, as this leaves no rim protection in the paint defensively. It may be a longshot, but Porzingis claiming the Finals MVP award may not be as crazy as it sounds right now if Boston goes on to defeat Dallas.