No one would be surprised if the Golden State Warriors and Boston Celtics face off in an NBA Finals rematch come June. But that distinct possibility says much more about the Celtics' continued improvement and overall parity of the Western Conference this season than the Warriors living up to the standard they set last season while winning a remarkable fourth title in eight years.
Golden State enters Saturday's highly anticipated tilt with the Celtics at 13-13, having overcome a disastrous start to 2022-23 but still needing to prove its worth as a top-tier title contender. There's no better test for the Warriors in that regard than the Celtics, whose 21-5 record and gaudy +9.2 net rating both lead the league.
No matter what happens at Chase Center, here are four reasons why Golden State must level up over the season's remainder to pose a serious challenge to Boston in a potential repeat of last year's championship series.
A tale of two benches
It's easy to forget amid Stephen Curry's singular heroics and Jayson Tatum's persistent struggles, but the top of the roster isn't the only area the Warriors proved better than the Celtics last June. Ime Udoka got next to nothing from his bench in that decisive back half of the Finals, with Derrick White, Grant Williams and Payton Pritchard getting sorely outplayed by their Warriors counterparts.
Gary Payton II and Otto Porter are gone now, and Jordan Poole has only just begun finding the form that made him one of basketball's most dynamic playmakers throughout the postseason. The Warriors' bench isn't the tire fire it was over the first month of the season, recently stabilized by the inclusion of Draymond Green and Andrew Wiggins in the second unit and Jonathan Kuminga coming into his own as a defense-first sparkplug.
Even so, it's telling Golden State has been the subject of trade rumors involving the likes of Jae Crowder, Jakob Poeltl and other gettable impact players. It's obvious to anyone, Joe Lacob and Bob Myers included, that the Warriors need to upgrade their personnel to have more than a puncher's chance at winning the title this season.
The same certainly can't be said for the Celtics. They've never been deeper or more cohesive after trading for Malcolm Brogdon in July and getting nightly contributions from sharpshooting forward Sam Hauser. Boston's depth will only get better once Robert Williams III makes his long-awaited return from injury, relegating Blake Griffin and Luke Kornet to spot minutes.
The Warriors' net rating without Curry on the floor this season is an abysmal -11.3, per Cleaning the Glass. The Celtics' net rating when Tatum is on the bench? +5.4, an impressive number accounted for most by dominant offense.
Golden State had a decided depth advantage in last year's Finals once Payton II returned from injury in Game 2, giving Steve Kerr another elite, highly disruptive defender to sic on Tatum and Jaylen Brown and wreak havoc away from the play. Fast forward six months, and the Warriors don't just lack that crucial extra defensive stopper, but are still searching for answers off the bench as the Celtics make their case as the league's deepest, most versatile team.
The Celtics' dominant defense is coming
Remember early eyebrow-raising about Boston's suddenly lackluster defense under rookie coach Joe Mazzulla? The Celtics' 111.2 defensive rating ranks fifth overall entering Saturday's action, per Cleaning the Glass, making them the only team in the league with top-five marks on both sides of the ball.
Understanding the true extent of Boston's two-way dominance requires more context. The Celtics' 109.2 defensive rating against top-10 offenses is the NBA's lowest by over two points per 100 possessions, according to Cleaning the Glass. Remember, Mazzulla's team has done all that without its most impactful defender.
Williams could return as early as next week, allowing the Celtics' bevy of quality defensive players to take more chances on the perimeter, knowing one of the game's most fear-inducing rim-protectors is behind them to clean up any mistakes of commission. It's only a matter of time, basically, until Boston's bottom-five opponent turnover rate significantly improves, upping its effectiveness on both sides of the ball.
Scary.
Historic, reworked offense
You've heard about the Celtics' offense by now. It's not only the No. 1 unit in the league by three-plus points per 100 possessions, but Boston's 119.9 offensive rating would be the highest number ever if the season ended today.
That historic standing is at least a partial reflection of the league's offense-friendly environment at large. But the same principles of ball and player movement and efficient shot selection that have juiced offense across the NBA have also been implemented by Mazzulla, making the Celtics a much different offensive team than the one that routinely bogged down against Golden State's halfcourt defense in the Finals.
Boston is assisting on 63.2% of its scores this season, per NBA.com/stats, seventh-best in the NBA after ranking 14th last season by getting help on 60.9% of its baskets. The Celtics are taking 44.1% of their shots from beyond the arc, a sky-high three-point rate that sits behind only the Warriors' and Dallas Mavericks'. They were ninth in the same category a year ago, when they also ranked 15th in percentage of shots from mid-range—compared to 28th this season.
Boston is relying less on isolations, running more off-ball screening actions and once again leading the league in spot-up opportunities. Raw offensive data speaks plenty loud of that more egalitarian offensive approach paying off, but the surest indicator of that reality is just how much better the Celtics are at attacking set defenses.
Boston ranked seventh in halfcourt offense last season, its 98.8 offensive rating 3.2 points higher than league average. The Celtics' 108.4 halfcourt offensive rating this season is by far the best in basketball, per Cleaning the Glass, a whopping 12.3 points above average.
Boston is an offensive juggernaut of historic proportions now. Golden State, meanwhile, ranks middle of the pack defensively overall, and hemorrhages points whenever Draymond Green is off the floor.
The Celtics' offense versus the Warriors' defense was an objectively winning proposition for Golden State the last time these teams met. Nearly two months into the regular season, that dynamic has flipped on its head almost entirely.
Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are better than ever
There's only so much to glean from Saturday's game given the absence of Andrew Wiggins, still out with a nagging adductor strain. The Warriors wouldn't have taken down the Celtics last summer without him hounding Tatum across the floor, and Wiggins has taken his offensive game to a whole new level this season, settling in perfectly as a souped-up play finisher at the rim and from beyond the arc.
He's more pivotal to Golden State's hopes of beating Boston than any player on the roster not named Curry. That proved the case last June, and stands to loom even larger in this matchup now that Tatum and Brown have reached new offensive peaks.
Tatum is an MVP favorite, significantly increasing his free throw rate and lowering his turnover percentage while shooting career-bests at the rim and from beyond the arc. Brown has swapped long twos for shots at the rim, also shooting a Kevin Durant-like 56.2% on mid-range attempts outside the paint. Both are stronger with the ball, more willing passers and have a better understanding of how and when to manipulate defenses—exactly what you want from star wings entering their primes.
There's a case to be made that Tatum and Brown are the best offensive tandem in basketball. They weren't last season, crumbling under pressure of the Warriors' defense as their teammates stood and watched. Tatum and Brown are much different players now, operating with newfound poise and maturity in a much different system.
Don't be surprised if Golden State finds that out the hard way on Saturday, learning first-hand how far it has to go stack up to the best team in the league.
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