UFC Vegas 91: Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez continues on the prelims with a fight in the lightweight division between Austin Hubbard and Michael Figlak. Hubbard came up short in his bid to win the last season of The Ultimate Fighter losing by second-round submission in his last fight meanwhile, Figlak is coming off his first professional defeat and a length 19-month layoff as he makes his return to the octagon this weekend. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Hubbard-Figlak prediction and pick.

Austin Hubbard (15-7) was just one fight away from winning Season 31 of The Ultimate Fighter but unfortunately, he was submitted by Kurt Holobaugh in round two. Hubbard will be looking to right the ship and get his first win inside the Octagon during his second stint with the promotion when he takes on England's Michal Figlak this weekend at UFC Vegas 91.

Michael Figlak (8-1) lost for the first time in his UFC debut when he took on France's Fares Ziam who defeated him via unanimous decision. Since that fight back in Septemeber 2022, Figlak withdrew from his only scheduled fight in 2023 against Chris Duncan and has been out of commission for 19 months. He will be looking to make up for lost time when he steps inside the Octagon this weekend at the UFC Apex against Austin Hubbard.

Here are the UFC Vegas 91 Odds, courtesy of BetOnline. 

UFC Vegas 91 Odds: Austin Hubbard-Michal Figlak Odds

Austin Hubbard: +155

Michal Figlak: -180

Over 2.5 rounds: -230

Under 2.5 rounds: +190

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Why Austin Hubbard Will Win

Austin “Thud” Hubbard stands on the precipice of a crucial career crossroads when he faces Michal “Mad Dog” Figlak at UFC Vegas 91. While the oddsmakers position Hubbard as the underdog, a closer look suggests he has the tools and experience necessary to disrupt Figlak's momentum.

Figlak, a promising Polish prospect, enters the Octagon with an impressive record and a reputation for aggression. However, his long layoff due to injury raises questions about potential ring rust and his ability to return to top form. Hubbard, a seasoned veteran with a history of grinding out wins, may capitalize on this vulnerability.

Hubbard's path to victory lies in his well-rounded skillset. While not a flashy striker, he's technically sound and durable, capable of weathering Figlak's early storm. His greatest advantage rests in grappling. Hubbard has a history of wearing down opponents, dragging them into later rounds where his experience and cardio become decisive factors. If Hubbard can force Figlak to defend takedowns and grapple for extended periods, he'll sap the younger fighter's energy and force openings.

Don't count Hubbard out based on recent losses. He's faced a murderer's row of lightweight contenders. This fight is a chance for “Thud” to reassert himself in the division. Look for him to implement a suffocating game plan, frustrating Figlak and grinding his way to a decision victory or a late submission if the Pole begins to fade.

Why Michal Figlak Will Win

Michal Figlak returns to the Octagon at UFC Vegas 91 hungry to prove his long layoff wasn't merely a setback, but a catalyst for improvement. His opponent, the experienced Austin Hubbard, offers a stern test, but one Figlak is poised to pass with explosiveness.

Hubbard is a durable gatekeeper in the lightweight division – skilled enough to trouble rising prospects, but lacking the killer instinct to ascend to true contender status. While Hubbard banks on his veteran savvy and grinding style, Figlak arrives with an intensity and forward pressure that will overwhelm Hubbard.

The Polish fighter boasts a dynamism Hubbard cannot match. Figlak's striking is unorthodox, unpredictable, and powerful. He can force exchanges at will, keeping Hubbard on the defensive and robbing him of the space to execute his grappling-focused game plan. Should the fight hit the mat, Figlak's aggressive submission game poses a constant threat, an element Hubbard must worry about that Figlak won't.

This fight is about momentum. Figlak's layoff has done nothing to dull his edge. He's returning determined to make a statement and reassert his position as a dangerous contender. Hubbard, in contrast, is a fighter treading water, clinging to relevance in the division. Look for Figlak to swarm Hubbard early. Expect him to land the kind of flashy, fight-altering strike that catapults his highlight reel and leaves Hubbard struggling to answer.

Final Austin Hubbard-Michal Figlak Prediction & Pick

This should be an interesting matchup between these lightweight hopefuls. Both fighters are desperately in need of a win this weekend but it's the fighter who's battle-tested against the much better competition that's going to get their hand raised and that is Austin Hubbard. While Figlak certainly looks like the more explosive and dangerous fighter, it's Hubbard who's defensively sound and well-rounded enough to keep Figlak working defending the takedowns, the grappling, and the calf kick ultimately dropping his second decision in a row.

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Final Austin Hubbard-Michal Figlak Prediction & Pick: Austin Hubbard (+155), Over 2.5 Rounds (-230)