As the Prelims of UFC 323 come to a close, we'll bring you a betting prediction and pick for the featured bout taking place in the Lightweight (155) Division. No. 13-ranked Grant Dawson of Florida will take on Mexican prospect Manuel Torres in what should be an exciting bout. Check our UFC 323 odds series for the Dawson-Torres prediction and pick.
Grant Dawson (23-2-1) has gone and impressive 11-1-1 since joining the UFC in 2019. He's currently riding a three-fight winning streak that he most recently added to with a unanimous decision win over Diego Ferreira. He'll look to keep streaking as the betting favorite in this one. Dawson stands 5-foot-10 with a 72-inch reach.
Manuel Torres (16-3) is currently 4-1 under the UFC banner since 2022. He suffered his first promotional loss to Ignacio Bahamondes, but rebounded nicely with a first-round KO finish over Drew Dober his last time out. He'll look to add a ranking next to his name with a win here. Torres stands 5-foot-10 with a 73.5-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 323 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 323 Odds: Grant Dawson-Manuel Torres Odds
Grant Dawson: -218
Manuel Torres: +180
Over 1.5 rounds: +105
Under 1.5 rounds: -115
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Why Grant Dawson Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Diego Ferreira – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 13 SUB
Grant Dawson turned in yet another dominant performance as the betting favorite in his last fight, controlling all three round of action against Diego Ferreira both on the feet and on the ground. His grappling has become a massive focal point of his game, but he does a tremendous job of setting it up with his striking. From the feet, Dawson is able to close the distance without sustaining damage and once he's dead set on scoring the takedown, there's not much that will deter him from constantly chasing it.
From there, Dawson does a fantastic job of allowing his opponents to put themselves in a bad spot through transitions on the ground. From there, Dawson is extremely agile and quick to take the back or attempt submissions, so he should be fighting behind a clear advantage on the ground if he's able to get it there.
Dawson has also greatly improved his striking defense, but it's worth noting he's been knocked out-cold most recently by King Green. While he's not typically one to falter, he'll certainly need to be careful closing the distance against a dangerous and long striker like Manuel Torrres.
Why Manuel Torres Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Drew Dober – TKO (combo strikes, R1)
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 8 KO/TKO, 7 SUB
Manuel Torres redeemed his loss to Ignacio Bahamondes in a huge way with his knockout over Drew Dober in the first round. Dober, one of the division's toughest fighters, didn't seem to stand a chance against the lightning-fast combination from Torres. His power in this division is certainly uncommon and his distance control is above average as well. When Torres is able to combine the two, he's a threat to knock any opponent out regardless of skill level.
Torres also isn't afraid to mix things up on the ground, attempting two takedowns per fight. Even more impressive is his 88% takedown defense and seven wins by submission, so Grant Dawson certainly can't sleep on the grappling ability of Torres. Torres is also the more aggressive striker of the two sides and is likely the one to be pressing forward most of this fight.
Ultimately, Manuel Torres has a serious shot as the underdog if he's able to dictate the striking exchanges. His wrestling defense is sound enough to hold up against the wrestling of Dawson and this fight should be his to lose on the feet if he's able to string his combinations together effectively.
Final Grant Dawson-Manuel Torres Prediction & Pick
This should be a great matchup between a suffocating wrestler in Grant Dawson and a violent striker in Manuel Torres. Dawson is the favorite thanks to his well-rounded game and should be able to control this fight if he's able to get Torres to the mat. Manuel Torres, however, will be hard to take down and will be looking to knockout Dawson out in the process.
We'll lean in Grant Dawson's favor to win this fight behind a dominant three-round effort, but Manuel Torres is a serious threat to knock Dawson out if he's able to land clean one. The safer bet here may be to side with the total over in rounds as we should see a competitive effort from both fighters. Still, it should be Dawson who has the advantage if he's able to bring the fight to the ground.
Final Grant Dawson-Manuel Torres Prediction & Pick: Grant Dawson (-218); OVER 1.5 Rounds (+105)
