UFC Shanghai: Johnny Walker versus Mingyang Zhang continues the prelims with a fight between Michel Pereira and Kyle Daukaus in the middleweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Pereira-Daukaus prediction and pick.

Michel Pereira (31-13) is coming off a tough loss to Abus Magomedov by unanimous decision in April 2025. Before that, he suffered a fifth-round TKO defeat to Anthony Hernandez in October 2024. Pereira is looking to bounce back against Kyle Daukaus this weekend at UFC Fight Night, aiming to snap a two-fight skid with his dynamic striking and submission skills.

Kyle Daukaus (15-4) returns to the UFC on the back of dominant performances in the CFFC, where he scored a first-round KO over Keanan Patershuk in June 2024 and secured a third-round D’Arce choke submission against Sean Connor Fallon in February. Daukaus looks to continue his winning streak against Michel Pereira this weekend with his slick grappling and sharp ground game.

Here are the UFC Shanghai Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Shanghai odds: Michel Pereira-Kyle Daukaus odds

Michel Pereira: -265

Kyle Daukaus: +210

Over 1.5 rounds: -188

Under 1.5 rounds: +145

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Why Michel Pereira will win

  • Last Fight: (L) Abus Magomedov – DEC
  • Last 5: 3-2
  • Finishes: 19 (8 KO/TKO/11 SUB)

Michel Pereira’s dynamic striking and unpredictable style give him a clear edge against Kyle Daukaus at UFC Shanghai. Known for his flashy and creative offense, Pereira has the ability to keep Daukaus guessing and create openings with his unorthodox attacks. His recent fights show he can absorb damage and keep pushing forward, a key asset against a grappler like Daukaus.

While Daukaus is a strong grappler with effective submissions, Pereira’s improved takedown defense should limit Daukaus’s ability to control the fight on the ground. Pereira’s pace and striking versatility allow him to dictate where the fight takes place, reducing Daukaus’s chances to implement his ground game. This will be critical in maintaining the stand-up advantage.

Moreover, Pereira’s experience against top-level opponents has sharpened his ability to adjust mid-fight. If he senses Daukaus becoming predictable, Pereira can switch gears and exploit openings with his striking power and grappling skills, making him a well-rounded threat.

Pereira’s combination of striking creativity, takedown defense, and fight experience positions him as the favorite. Expect him to use his dynamic skill set to out-strike and outlast Daukaus, securing a win in the middle rounds at UFC Shanghai.

Why Kyle Daukaus will win

  • Last Fight: (W) Keanan Patershuk – KO/TKO R1
  • Last 5: 4-1
  • Finishes: 12 (1 KO/TKO/11 SUB)

Kyle Daukaus’s grappling prowess and relentless pressure give him a significant edge over Michel Pereira at UFC Shanghai. Daukaus is known for his ability to control opponents on the ground, smothering them with top pressure and securing submissions. His recent wins demonstrate his effectiveness in imposing his will through wrestling and ground control, which could neutralize Pereira’s flashy striking.

Pereira’s unorthodox style thrives in stand-up exchanges, but Daukaus’s takedown skills and improved ground defense should allow him to dictate the fight’s location. By forcing Pereira to fight off his back, Daukaus minimizes Pereira’s offensive creativity and reduces his power advantage. This tactic will likely frustrate Pereira and sap his energy.

Moreover, Daukaus’s conditioning and patience make him a tough puzzle to solve. He excels in grinding down opponents over several rounds, capitalizing on mistakes and wearing them out physically and mentally. Pereira has shown durability, but sustained pressure and wrestling can be a great equalizer.

Daukaus’s grappling control, superior wrestling, and ability to impose relentless pressure should lead to a ground-dominant win. Expect Daukaus to stifle Pereira’s offense and secure either a submission victory or a decision win at UFC Shanghai.

Final Michel Pereira-Kyle Daukaus prediction & pick

The fight between Michel Pereira and Kyle Daukaus at UFC Shanghai will be a classic striker versus grappler matchup. Pereira is known for his unpredictable, flashy striking and unrelenting pressure, making him dangerous on the feet. His dynamic standup and creativity often catch opponents off guard, giving him the ability to end fights with a spectacular finish.

Daukaus, however, brings a strong wrestling and grappling pedigree into the cage. He has consistently shown the ability to control fights on the ground with dominant top pressure and slick submission skills. If Daukaus can secure takedowns early and maintain that control, he will neutralize much of Pereira’s striking threat.

The fight will likely come down to Pereira’s takedown defense versus Daukaus’s persistence in shooting for the legs. Pereira has improved in this area but Daukaus’s pressure and conditioning may wear him down over time.

This fight is closer than the betting line suggests and Daukaus’s grappling gives him a slight edge. Expect him to win a hard-fought decision or possibly finish the fight on the ground if he can control the pace and space effectively.

Final Michel Pereira-Kyle Daukaus Prediction & Pick: Kyle Daukaus (+210), Over 1.5 Rounds (-188)