UFC Rio: Charles Oliveira vs. Mateusz Gamrot continues on the main card with a fight between Vicente Luque and Joel Alvarez in the welterweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Luque-Alvarez prediction and pick.
Vicente Luque (23-11-1) enters UFC Rio in a difficult spot, having lost four of his last six fights including recent submission defeats to Kevin Holland and knockout losses to Joaquin Buckley and Geoff Neal. The former welterweight contender bounced back with a decision win over Rafael dos Anjos and a submission victory over Themba Gorimbo, but remains inconsistent as he comes into his fight this weekend against Joel Alvarez.
Joel Alvarez (22-3) makes his welterweight debut riding a three-fight win streak, including recent knockout victories over Drakkar Klose and Elves Brener after suffering his only UFC loss to top contender Arman Tsarukyan in 2022. The Spanish finisher has recorded 22 career finishes in 22 wins and moves up from lightweight after weight-cutting issues as he comes into his fight this weekend against Vicente Luque.
Here are the UFC Rio Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Rio odds: Vicente Luque-Joel Alvarez odds
Vicente Luque: +360
Joel Alvarez: -470
Over 1.5 rounds: +110
Under 1.5 rounds: -140
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Why Vicente Luque will win
- Last Fight: (L) Kevin Holland – SUB R2
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 20 (9 KO/TKO/11 SUB)
Luque’s proven track record at welterweight demonstrates his resilience against top-tier opposition and his ability to make mid-fight adjustments, whereas Alvarez enters this contest moving up from lightweight for the first time. Luque’s power, especially in combination striking and low kicks, works well to limit Alvarez’s reach advantage and disrupt his rhythm through the opening exchanges.
While Alvarez is known for his finishing aggression, Luque’s durability and willingness to bite down in firefights allows him to weather early storms and respond with savage counters in the pocket. Luque’s defensive grappling and submission game further neutralize Alvarez’s attempts to transition phase, reducing openings for takedowns and clinch attacks.
Luque’s ability to cause cut damage with elbows, as shown in wins against seasoned veterans, means Alvarez cannot afford sloppy entries or lazy defense at range. If the fight goes long, Luque’s experience in main-event rounds and proven cardio set him apart, allowing him to pour on pressure and swing momentum when Alvarez starts to fade.
In front of a Brazilian crowd, Luque absorbs early adversity and rallies to claim a decision victory, using his veteran savvy and multi-phase offense to control the later rounds at UFC Rio on Saturday.
Why Joel Alvarez will win
- Last Fight: (W) Drakkar Klose – KO/TKO R1
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 22 (5 KO/TKO/17 SUB)
Alvarez comes into his welterweight debut with momentum and an aggressive finishing mindset, having secured 22 finishes in 22 career wins. His rangy frame and technical volume, especially off his jab and front kicks, enable him to keep Luque at bay and rack up damage on the outside.
Luque’s recent decline in durability makes Alvarez’s knockout and sharp submission threats far more dangerous, especially in early exchanges where Alvarez is most explosive. The Spaniard’s excellent hips and scrambles prevent Luque from controlling in the clinch or grinding the fight out on the mat.
Should the fight go long, Alvarez’s natural size and pace at welterweight could be a decisive advantage, overwhelming Luque with rapid entries and forcing defensive lapses. Alvarez’s confidence after consecutive knockout wins means he won’t hesitate to press the action as soon as Luque’s defense shows any cracks.
If Alvarez can avoid Luque’s counters and output at mid-range, his finishing instincts and cardio fuel a breakthrough performance. Expect Alvarez to score a highlight-reel TKO or submission — as he continues his rise in a new division at UFC Rio on Saturday.
Final Vicente Luque-Joel Alvarez prediction & pick
Alvarez enters his welterweight debut with momentum from three straight stoppage wins and a renewed focus on leveraging his size and reach at 170 pounds. From the opening round, Alvarez uses his length and rangy kicking game to frustrate Luque’s forward movement, peppering the Brazilian with jabs, front kicks, and sharp elbows that rack up early damage.
Luque pressures but finds fewer opportunities to counter as Alvarez’s quicker entries and clinch escapes prevent the “Silent Assassin” from settling into rhythm, especially in high-output exchanges. Whenever Luque attempts to bully Alvarez to the fence, Alvarez pivots and lands knees and hooks, forcing Luque on the back foot and keeping him outside where the Spaniard is most dangerous.
The size and pace of Alvarez at welterweight begin to wear on Luque, whose durability has faded after a recent run of stoppage losses and hard wars. Whenever the fight hits the mat, Alvarez’s submission threat and scrambling ability negate Luque’s offense, allowing Alvarez to return to his feet and resume his striking attack.
As the fight enters the championship rounds, Alvarez’s superior cardio and volume output allow him to pour on the pressure, landing heavy combinations and sharp body shots. With Luque compromised and slower to react, Alvarez capitalizes with a highlight-reel TKO, announcing himself as a real contender in his new division at UFC Rio on Saturday.
Final Vicente Luque-Joel Alvarez Prediction & Pick: Joel Alvarez (-470), Under 1.5 Rounds (-140)
