Pavel Buchnevich may not be a name that hockey fans think deserves an $8 million cap hit from the St. Louis Blues on his contract extension. However, he has been integral for the Blues over the last three seasons. He appeared in 216 regular-season games, ranking third on the team in points, second in goals, and second in assists. He has 83 goals and 123 assists with a +46 rating. Buchnevich is among 22 NHL players with over 200 points and a +45 rating since 2021-22.
The two parties struggled to reach a mutual agreement due to Buchnevich's performance last season. Buchnevich's down year was poor timing for the Russian winger, as he had just 63 points in 80 games. The numbers were concerning, as he had four more points in 2022-23 in 17 fewer games. The Blues had to decide whether it was an anomaly or Buchnevich's play was about to nosedive.
General manager Doug Armstrong decided to take a chance on the forward, as they weren't in a position to let talent walk. Buchnevich may have his faults, but he is one of the Blues' most valuable forwards and deserved to get a contract.
Was the contract an overpay? It will be if Buchnevich's numbers continue to plummet. However, if he returns to the pace he was on in his first two seasons with the Blues, he deserves to be paid the same as Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas.
Will Pavel Buchnevich live up to the contract extension?
Buchnevic had one of the worst point-per-game marks of his career in 2023-24, but the raw point totals don't tell the entire story. If you believe in advanced analytics, they tell you Buchnevich could be due for some positive regression this upcoming season. He had the best “Corsi” numbers of his career, the ratio of shot attempts made on goal for and against.
There is also an analytic called Relative Dangerous Fenwick For Percentage. The Dangerous Fenwick stat measures a weighted show metric using shot distance location and type of shot, which gives each shot he takes a “danger” value. Buchnevich's DFF% was one of the lowest of his career at 49.40 last season. However, his “relative” metric was among the highest in the entire league. The relative DFF% means that compared to his teammates, his numbers were much better.
It could mean he was just the best out of a bad bunch, but there's a better chance that Pavel Buchnevich experienced poor luck with his point production. NHL front offices are becoming more analytical, so there's a good chance that Doug Armstrong viewed these numbers to decide on the big contract.
The Blues trade Buchnevich before contract ends
In a recent trade candidates piece, we wondered whether the Blues were better off becoming a rebuilding team. They were a good defensive team last season, but their offense couldn't compete in the Western Conference. Their defense and goaltender Jordan Binnington almost mounted a comeback to put them into the postseason, but they came up six points short. It will get worse for the Blues before it gets better, as they didn't do anything to improve their offense this offseason.
The Blues also have to deal with an ankle injury to Torey Krug, who may miss the entire season. Their defense was a strength, and Krug isn't the player he once was, but he will still be a loss for their depth. They also may end up trading one of their other defensemen if the season begins poorly. It's a difficult spot for the Blues and Doug Armstrong may be too stubborn to throw in the towel with this group.
At a certain point, he will have to make that difficult decision. It won't be this season but expect Buchnevich to be a trade deadline target for a team in the coming years. Buchnevich's contract won't look as expensive as now once the salary cap rises.
Pavel Buchnevich's last NHL contract
This bold prediction may be a bit more outlandish than the others, but we'll take a page from Evgeni Kuznetsov's book and say Buchnevich will finish his career in Russia. Kuznetsov recently terminated his contract with the Carolina Hurricanes to return to SKA St. Petersburg, the same KHL team with Buchnevich's rights.
Buchnevich won't terminate his contract, as it's worth too much money. However, he will be 35 when this contract ends and could be looking to return home. He played four seasons in the KHL before coming to North America, tallying 87 points in 140 games. Pavel Buchnevich would be a hot ticket to return to the league in the final years of his career.
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