While Denver Broncos coach Sean Payton is leaving himself reminders, the coach of the other top seed, Mike Macdonald, is trying to keep his team grounded. But how would every 2026 NFL playoff game look if coaching set the final margin?
You may think that happens anyway. But you can’t ignore the Jimmies and Joes and bow to the Xs and Os. A case in point is the 49ers. They have a lot of Jimmies and Joes on the sideline. So Kyle Shanahan has less to work with when premium performance is demanded.
Consider this as a framing of how everything would land if the coaches made the most difference under their current roster circumstances. Not just some difference, but THE difference.
And away we go.
Bills at Broncos
This would be the veteran showdown, the only such matchup on the board. It’s interesting to note that McDermott is 8-7 in the postseason while Payton is 9-9. So there’s no real edge there.
However, McDermott is 6-4 since the last year Payton won a playoff game. That’s not recency bias, but rather a comfort zone of knowing how to navigate today’s playoffs. It doesn’t mean Payton doesn’t know how to win anymore, but there’s a stage of proving himself, again, that Payton must pass through.
For example, if the Broncos lose as the No. 1 seed, questions will floruish about whether Payton can get it done. Those questions are basically inward whispers right now. They aren't “NFL mainstream” right now. But they will be if the Broncos lose.
Therefore, Payton has more pressure.
So, does McDermott coax a win out of his bunch? Yes, he gets the slightest edge, and the Bills advance.
Texans at Patriots
This is perhaps the most interesting coaching matchup. Mike Vrabel would seem to be the veteran with more experience. However, he’s 3-3 overall in the postseason while Ryans is 3-2.
One thing weighing in Vrabel’s favor is the way his team looked in the Wild Card Round. They were ready to rock, especially on defense. Vrabel has the pulse of this team.
However, Ryans’ bunch was totally dominant on the defensive side of the ball. So much so that they overcame the offense.
Again, this is a slight edge, but Ryans gets it.
49ers at Seahawks
There’s no doubt who has the coaching edge here. Kyle Shanahan could be ranked No. 1 as the top head coach in the NFL. Meanwhile, Macdonald is still in the toddler steps of playoff coaching.
However, for this article, we don’t advance Shanahan simply because he’s the better coach. The idea is weighing the coach as the most important thing, not the only thing. And the Seahawks have a big advantage in healthy players.
Still, Shanahan gets the tiny edge as his coaching gap over Macdonald pushes the 49ers to victory.
Rams at Bears
This is the easiest one. Sean McVay is built for this type of coaching matchup. Ben Johnson hasn’t been able to get his team out of the starting blocks many times this season. And yet, here they are, still playing.
However, a slow start won’t work against the Rams. McVay will close up shop if the Rams get a sizable lead. Count on it.
Championship games
49ers at Rams
Wow. What a coaching matchup. McVay versus Shanahan. If only the 49ers had a healthier defense. This might be an epic clash.
But given the advantages and the fact that McVay and Shanahan are probably one-two in the NFL coaching ranks, the edge goes to McVay.
Bills at Texans
Having a championship game in Texas that doesn’t include the Cowboys would be awful for poor Jerry Jones. He would be beside himself. All that Texas-sized attention going to another team? Sorry, had to point that out.
This would be the most difficult coaching matchup to assess. At this point, Ryans would have proven himself as legitimate to get to the Super Bowl. And McDermott would be hounded by the close-but-no-cigar failures.
It would be easy to put this game in McDermott’s bag because of Josh Allen. But that’s not the theme of this article.
And if you put the coaches at the highest level of importance, Ryans gets the nod. Let’s call this an overtime coaching win.
Super Bowl
Texans vs. Rams
Now, this is where previous experience plays a big role. It’s not that Ryans couldn’t break through and get this win. There would be a lot to like about his early postseason coaching success.
But McVay seems to be a cut above. And having gone through the process before, he gets a slim edge.
