The Tampa Bay Lightning locked up forward Nick Paul to a seven-year contract extension earlier this month.
Paul was originally acquired from the Ottawa Senators at the trade deadline for Mathieu Joseph and a draft pick. His contract carries a $3.15 million cap hit and comes with a no-trade clause, which becomes a 16-team no-trade list for the final three years of the deal.
Below, we look at how the deal breaks down for the Lightning.
Grading Nick Paul's contract extension with Lightning
The Player
Nick Paul produced well with the Lightning after the trade, managing 14 points in 21 regular-season games. While his playoff production wasn't quite at the same rate, he certainly still made an impact. The Lightning dealt with a lot of injuries but Paul was consistent and could be counted on when he was on the ice. It even seemed fairly likely he had priced himself out of Tampa Bay.
While he won't add a ton of offense, Paul is a hard worker and is defensively reliable. He can use his size to win battles and played a key role on the team's penalty kill in the postseason.
The forward's production has been extremely consistent over the last three seasons, with a clear projection for his point totals being around 30 points per 82 games. Given he's also just 27 years old, there also shouldn't be fear of a decline for many years.
All signs point to Paul being a good fit as the team's third-line center.
The Term
If you just hear the term of the contract and not the price, it's a bit concerning. Nick Paul has still played under 250 career regular-season NHL games, so seven years seems like a lot.
However, the term directly affects the cap hit. There's an ideal term for any deal and an expected length for Paul's extension would've been around four years. That said, a deal in that range would've almost surely came at a higher cost, as the player would give up long-term security. In a shorter deal, the Lightning would escape before any potential decline but would deal with a higher AAV.
Given the Lightning's cap situation, they made the right call here. Plus, you have to imagine the salary cap will be significantly higher by the end of the deal. As a result, it's less of a concern by that point because Paul's contract will take up such a tiny percentage of the team's cap space.
The Cap Hit
Paul's $3.15 million cap hit is a huge win for the Lightning. There certainly aren't many NHL teams with a third-line center locked up at just over $3 million. The Lightning will be getting him at a lower number than he would've had on a shorter deal, and he should provide excellent value for that price.
These are the kinds of deals that really benefit a contending team. Paul plays an important role, and having cost certainty and getting better value than his cap hit would suggest on a long-term basis is key and allows cap space to be used elsewhere.
Even if Paul has taken a step back by the end of the deal, it's still a manageable number. Plus, the Lightning are trying to contend right now. Even if that means a less-than-stellar contract down the road, it would be worth it anyways.
The No-Trade Clause
Obviously, no trade protection on a contract is always ideal. A no-trade clause limits a team's ability to make a move and shed cap space, should something go sideways.
However, Nick Paul should provide great value for the first four years, to the point where it would be counterproductive to trade him anyways. Then with the NTC becoming just a 16-team no-trade list for the final three years, it gives the Lightning an out if they need one. Again, it seems unlikely that Paul would regress to that point, but at least it's an option.
Regardless, the no-trade clause is certainly a fair trade-off for the deal the Lightning got here.
***
Overall, this is a really solid deal for the Lightning. If Paul can be an effective, long-term center for the team, they should end up getting excellent value. The low cap hit helps them a ton right now, and it'll only look better as the cap rises. Given the price tag, the Lightning retain the ability to invest money elsewhere. Meanwhile, the length means it's one less piece the Lightning have to worry about keeping around for the long haul.
There's obviously still a bit of risk and a no-trade clause is never ideal. That said, the fact the Lightning were able to bring Paul back is a win to begin with. Then factor in how good the contract is that they brought him back on, and it's safe to say this was a successful signing for the team.
The Lightning are looking to continue contending. Nick Paul is going to help them do it.
Grade: A-
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