The Kentucky Wildcats are getting hot at the right time. After a mid-season skid that saw the Wildcats lose four out of six games — including three straight at home — John Calipari's squad has overpowered opponents in recent weeks. Over their last 10 contests, Kentucky is sixth in the country in offensive efficiency, scoring 127 points per 100 possessions. UK has won seven of its last eight games, including wins over highly ranked teams in Auburn and Tennessee.

This late-season improvement has moved Kentucky up in the projected brackets. The Wildcats currently have an average seed of 3.95 per Bracket Matrix, with most projections placing Kentucky as a four-seed.

After early exits in recent years, the Wildcats are looking to make their first second-weekend appearance since 2019. With some favorable matchups, this Kentucky team could be a Final Four favorite.

Face a weak #6 seed before a Sweet Sixteen game against Iowa State

A three-seed in the NCAA Tournament is still not out of reach for the Kentucky Wildcats. Kansas, the last three-seed in many projections, has struggled mightily in recent games. If Kentucky makes a run in the SEC Tournament and the Jayhawks bow out early in the Big 12 tourney, then a three-four swap is a distinct possibility.

The benefit for Kentucky here would be enormous. While the Wildcats will like their chances in a Second Round matchup against almost any five or six-seed, facing a two-seed versus a one-seed in the Sweet 16 could be the difference between a respectable second-weekend exit and a Final Four run.

The top number-one seeds: Purdue, UConn, and Houston, have proven to be a level above every other team in the country this season. After that, everyone else is beatable — especially when you are one of the country's hottest teams. Of the potential two seeds, Iowa is the team that Kentucky would most likely want to face.

ISU is 12th in KenPom — on the low side for a #2 seed — and is just 78 in adjusted offensive efficiency. While Iowa State offers elite defense (#2 in the country, per KenPom), Kentucky's electric offense has shown the ability to score against anyone. Just a few days ago, the Wildcats dropped 85 points on KenPom's number-three defense, Tennessee. At the end of February, UK scored 91 points at Mississippi State, which is 25th in defensive efficiency.

The Cyclones are adept at forcing turnovers on defense, as their 25.9% TO rate is second-best in the nation. But the Wildcats rarely turn the ball over. Kentucky's turnover rate on offense of 14% puts them in the top 15 in the country.

Even if Iowa State slows down Kentucky's offense, it will still be difficult for its offense to keep up. ISU is 122nd in offensive efficiency over its last 10 games and has failed to surpass 70 points in each of its last five games.

Before Kentucky can even dream of the second weekend, it must get past the first two rounds. The First Round might even be harder than the second. McNeese State and UC Irvine are dangerous 13-seeds with Sweet 16 potential. McNeese has All-American-level guard play from Shahada Wells, while UCI offers a top-40 defense.

The Second Round will be less of a challenge. Kentucky will like its chances against a team like Utah State, South Carolina, or Nevada — all of which are receiving higher projected seeds than their metrics suggest. Upset-minded 11-seeds like Virginia, Indiana State, and Richmond are all fairly one-dimensional and should not cause the Wildcats too many problems either.