Madison Keys faces Elena Rybakina at the 2025 Australian Open. Our Australian Open odds series has our Keys-Rybakina prediction, odds and pick. Find out how to watch Keys-Rybakina.
Madison Keys is making another run at a major. She usually makes the second week in at least one major tournament each year. She has done that almost without fail over the past decade, missing out only once in the past 10 years. Here she is again in Week 2, in the Round of 16. She certainly has a chance. Likelihood is one thing, but possibility is another. Madison Keys keeps giving herself chances to make big runs at majors. She just hasn't gone all the way yet. She has reached one major final and a few semifinals. Can she finally go all the way and win the championship which would make her career complete?
Keys showed quite a lot of game in her third-round win over Danielle Collins in a battle of seeded American players. Collins had a very strong 2024 tennis season, so it was a statement by Keys to get on top of that match and close it out. Keys should come into this match with plenty of confidence, but her opponent could be a lot to handle.
Elena Rybakina is the 2022 Wimbledon champion and a former Australian Open finalist, having reached the final in 2023 before losing to Aryna Sabalenka in a high-quality match. It seemed that in the first half of 2023, Rybakina was heading for superstardom. She is a star, having won a major title, but there were signs two years ago that her career was about to become a rocket ship. She was making the latter stages of most big tournaments and was showing the kind of mental toughness elite players have. Then, somewhere along the way, that winning edge deserted her. Last year, Rybakina suffered the kind of loss which can haunt an immensely talented player.
Rybakina dominated the first set of the 2024 Wimbledon quarterfinal match against Barbora Krejcikova. Rybakina was hammering the ball and dictating the way the match was played. Big hitters and huge servers are made to play at Wimbledon, and Rybakina was fully in her element. However, she lost focus and allowed Krejcikova to get back into the match. Rybakina lost the second set and could not recover in the third. She lost, and Krejcikova won a Wimbledon title Rybakina allowed to slip away.
This match is big — every fourth-round match of a major is big — but it might be uniquely large for Rybakina because she has to get back that mental edge she lost last year. Rybakina needs to re-establish herself as a big-match player. If she can't, a lot of talent and potential will not be completely fulfilled. Rybakina has one major title; she has enough talent to win several. The inner game — the mental side of tennis — is where she needs to make the big leap. This match against Keys — another player who has struggled with the mental game of tennis — will reveal a lot about Elena Rybakina's 2025 tennis mindset.
Here are the Keys-Rybakina Australian Open odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Australian Open Odds: Keys-Rybakina Odds
Game Spread:
Keys +2.5 (-124)
Rybakina -2.5 (-108)
Moneyline:
Keys +126
Rybakina -152
To Win First Set:
Keys +110
Rybakina -134
Total Games In Match:
Over 22.5 (-110)
Under 22.5 (-120)
Total Games Won:




Keys over 12.5 (+114)
Keys under 12.5 (-152)
Rybakina over 12.5 (-112)
Rybakina under 12.5 (-118)
How to Watch Australian Open
Time: TBA
TV: ESPN2, ESPN Plus
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Why Madison Keys Will Win
Madison Keys, by beating Danielle Collins, scored the kind of win which should give her the freedom to hit big and play her game in this match. Rybakina's 2024 Wimbledon loss to Barbora Krejcikova might be a mental burden for her, enabling Keys to get the upper hand.
Why Elena Rybakina Will Win
Keys crushes the tennis ball. Rybakina is one of few players on tour who can hit the ball with similar power, and Rybakina has the better serve. In a match akin to trading howitzers, Rybakina has the better fastball.
Final Keys-Rybakina Prediction & Pick
It's a coin-flip match, but with a three-setter being a very realistic outcome, getting Keys total games offers a plus-money payout and is worth considering if you think this match will go the distance. We officially recommend staying away, but over games won props are good for this match.
Final Keys-Rybakina Prediction & Pick: Keys over 12.5 games won