It should be no surprise that Marvin Harrison Jr. will be one of the most polarizing prospects to follow for fantasy football in 2024. Having been the first non-QB drafted in April, Harrison joins a struggling Arizona Cardinals offense that desperately needed a top wideout.
The fantasy football outlook for Harrison is quite optimistic, as he joins a passing attack that immediately slots him in as Kyler Murray’s top target. While rookies are a mixed bag when it comes to their fantasy football production, Harrison is in a unique situation and should succeed right out of the gate.
His high average draft position (early-mid second round) might be tough to swallow when you are building out your team, but the kind of target share he will earn in the Arizona offense more than justifies that draft price. Let’s take a look at his college career and paint a picture moving forward to give you more confidence on why you should be all in.
2023 season in review
College Stats: 67 receptions, 1,211 receiving yards, 14 receiving TDs
It has been common knowledge for a while now that Harrison would be a collegiate star, having been ranked as one of the best players in all of college football during his three-year career. His time at Ohio State was just a taste of what is to come for Harrison in the NFL, but his tenure in Columbus should not be overlooked.
Harrison recorded 155 receptions, over 2,600 receiving yards, and found the end zone 32 total times (one rushing) in his three-year collegiate career, and what makes it even more impressive is in his freshman season, he only recorded 11/139/3.
While declaring early for the NFL Draft, Harrison put plenty of highlights on tape, making his journey to the next level an easy one. Having had his dad, the former Indianapolis Colts legend, pave the way for him, certainly made things easier, but the current NFL rookie blazed most of his trail himself, and the NFL is just his next stop.
2024 season preview
Entering the second season for head coach Jonathan Gannon, the Cardinals are looking to find their offensive identity. With Murray having returned for the final eight games last season, 2024 is hopefully the year of a healthy Murray, which would be a big boost to Harrison.
The offense looks to have a clear pecking order for targets, as Harrison and tight end Trey McBride slot in as the top two options. With ancillary options like Greg Dortch, Michael Wilson, and others filling important roles too, the passing attack will likely need to iron out a few kinks to start the season.
That isn’t to say that Harrison will have a slow start to his rookie campaign (although adjusting to the NFL is different for every player), but it is something to at least consider when building out your draft rankings for the 2024 fantasy football season.
Not having a solid WR2 could potentially hurt Harrison a bit, as there won’t be someone opposite him to take some pressure off of him in the passing game. Expecting a record-breaking season from Harrison like Puka Nacua produced last season should not be the expectation, regardless of how good Harrison is.
Projected stats
83 receptions, 1,079 receiving yards, 6 receiving TDs
Last season’s leading receiver was McBride, with 825 yards and three TDs on 81 receptions. Expecting Harrison to slide right into that role gives him a chance to replicate some of those results, although higher yardage and touchdown totals are extremely likely.
An important thing to note here – Murray has never thrown for 4,000 yards in a season, having hit 3,700 – 3,900 in his three fully healthy seasons. If you think that Harrison’s projected yardage total feels low, consider that, while injuries limited each of these players, the tenures of both Hollywood Brown and DeAndre Hopkins in Arizona only resulted in one 1K season (Hopkins – 2020).
Projecting Harrison for 80+ receptions puts him in line with the rookie campaigns of both Ja’Marr Chase (81) and Justin Jefferson (88). The big difference here is that both Chase and Jefferson averaged 16+ yards per reception, while Harrison is being projected for 13 yards per catch.
The lower average depth of target (ADOT) isn’t a slight to Harrison or what he brings to the table – it just is an educated guess for how the offensive scheme, led by offensive coordinator Drew Petzing, will manufacture touches for their superstar wideout.
While likely a result of playing from behind often, the Cardinals' 2023 offense ran a running play on 45.9 percent of offensive plays, while running a passing play on 54.1 percent of offensive plays. That breakdown wasn’t exactly what was expected from Petzing in his first year running the offense, so there likely will be a shift more toward a run-focused offensive attack in 2024.
All of this is to say that Harrison will have his clear-cut role in the Cardinals offense, but do not be surprised if they have games that feel more run-heavy than others.
It is absolutely a little risky to be drafting a rookie wideout in the second round of your fantasy football drafts, but not many rookies are basically promised a 100+ target workload right out of the gate. The kind of role that Harrison has waiting for him in Arizona is similar to what Malik Nabers will be earning with the New York Giants, so it will be fascinating to track both rookie first-round wideouts as the season progresses.
The bottom line is this – draft Harrison with confidence, as early as 2.04 in your drafts, and don’t look back A fully-healthy 2024 season for Murray gives the Arizona offense an untapped ceiling, and they could be one of the more exciting offenses for fantasy football this year, so you definitely want to grab a piece of that action.
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