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Drafting rookies in fantasy football is always a risk. After all, there is no way to truly know how prospects will translate to the NFL game until they actually play at the professional level. Any young player can become a star, but becoming a draft bust is just as likely. The 2025 NFL Draft saw a star running back selected sixth overall, and he seems like more of a guarantee to pan out than the average first-year player, although that can't be confirmed until he is out on the field during Week 1.
That player is Ashton Jeanty, the Boise State running back who finished second in Heisman Trophy voting. So, what is Jeanty's fantasy football outlook for the 2025 season?
Ashton Jeanty's 2024 collegiate statistics
Jeanty had one of the greatest college football seasons ever in 2024. Jeanty ran for 2,601 yards in total, which only trailed Barry Sanders, one of the greatest college football players ever, for the most in a single season. The Boise State back punched the ball into the end zone on 29 of his carries, which also ranks inside the top 10 all time.
Clearly, nobody could stop Jeanty, but he fell short of taking home the most prestigious individual award in college football. That was because Travis Hunter thrived on both sides of the football as both a receiver and a cornerback. The Heisman results were hotly debated, but there is no doubt that Jeanty was one of the best Heisman runner-ups in NCAA history.
Ashton Jeanty's 2025 fantasy football projection
Jeanty is projected to run for 1,248 yards and eight touchdowns as a rookie. Furthermore, he is expected to catch 63 passes for another 482 yards. Jeanty is a yards-after-contact beast that trucks through defenders and keeps his feet moving for extra yardage.
He has a rare blend of speed and power. Although he was so dominant in his final season of college that he was predominately used as a runner, he did show off plenty of pass-catching ability as a sophomore. Jeanty will play all three downs for the Las Vegas Raiders, and because the team brought Geno Smith into the fold, opposing defenses won't be able to stack the box like they did against Jeanty's Boise State team in college.
Even though Jeanty is expected to thrive right away, it is possible that he struggles early. Bijan Robinson was the last great running back prospect, and he didn't really get his feet under him until year two.
Fantasy football running back rankings
Despite being just a rookie without a single professional snap to his name, Jeanty is projected to be a first-round fantasy pick. In fact, he could go even higher in some fantasy leagues than he did in the real NFL Draft. Jeanty is considered RB4 and has an average draft position of 9.5.
Robinson, Saquon Barkley, and Jahmyr Gibbs are the only ball carriers unanimously ranked higher than Jeanty. Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey are also considered first-round players, and any Bucky Irving, Josh Jacobs, De'Von Achane, and Jonathan Taylor could sneak into the end of the first round.
Jeanty's ceiling could be higher than any of them. NFL teams won't invest premier capital into a running back unless they are going to utilize them. Plus, the Raiders don't really have any other weapons besides Brock Bowers. With the worst receiving corps in football, the Raiders are going to force-feed Jeanty the rock. He should absorb an abnormally large volume, and that could translate to a lot of fantasy points.
