The Chicago Cubs made one of the biggest trades of the offseason, bringing in Kyle Tucker. That has fans' expectations high in the Windy City as they look to make the playoffs for the first time since 2020. But in his preseason predictions, ESPN insider Jeff Passan does not have the Cubs winning the NL Central. He explains why the Milwaukee Brewers will win the division this season.
“Because the difference between the two talentwise is pretty negligible, and I like teams that have won recently. It's true the Brewers did not spend any money this winter and were raided in free agency,” Passan wrote.
“It's also true that Jackson Chourio is on the verge of becoming one of the best players in baseball, and the Brewers' farm system consistently produces quality big leaguers — enough to send them to the postseason five times in the past six full seasons. The Cubs are better on paper, sure, but they haven't played as much postseason baseball recently. That said, would it surprise me if the Cubs won the division? Not at all, because it's the NL Central, and just about anything can happen.”
The Brewers have not had success in those playoff games but have had incredible regular-season success in recent years. Is it enough for them to win the NL Central again?
Will the Cubs or Brewers win the NL Central?

The Cubs are the favorites to win the NL Central on FanDuel, +115 to the Brewers' +230. Their additions of Tucker and Ryan Pressly in separate trades with the Astros are the biggest reasons for that hype. Plus, the Brewers lost shortstop Willy Adames and closer Devin Williams from their 93-win team from last year.
The Reds and Pirates are trying to power out of lengthy rebuilds and could challenge for National League playoff spots. They are not easy wins like they have been in the past. Whether the Cubs or Brewers can get to Paul Skenes or silence Elly De La Cruz may determine the division this year.
The Cubs did not have great starting pitching last year and did not do much to improve it this offseason. They picked up career minor-league Cody Poteet in the Cody Bellinger trade. And they signed former Brewers pitcher Collin Rea. If those guys succeed in Chicago with Milwaukee's pitching factory across the division, they can finally return to the playoffs.
The Cubs start their American season in Arizona against the Diamondbacks. And the Brewers start in Yankee Stadium on Thursday.