The Washington Nationals might have the lowest expectations of any team in the 2023 MLB season. Just a few years removed from winning the 2019 World Series, the Nationals entered a full rebuild last year by moving Juan Soto at the trade deadline. Much of the focus in Washington will be on the development of potential stars like shortstop CJ Abrams and starting pitcher Mackenzie Gore. If the Nationals hope to stay out of the NL East basement, they'll need a few veteran players to turn back the clock.
Let's take a look at four Nationals players who need bounce-back seasons in 2023.
*Stats via Baseball Reference.
Victor Robles, CF
Victor Robles was supposed to be part of a star-studded outfield in Washington with Soto for years to come. Soto held up his end of the bargain and was eventually traded for a haul of top prospects. Robles has failed to make the leap that the Nationals had hoped.
Robles was the No. 6 ranked prospect in all of baseball five years ago. The centerfielder showed promise by hitting .255/.326/.419 with 17 home runs as a rookie during Washington's 2019 championship run. Robles hasn't hit better than .224/.310/.315 in any of the last three years. Robles has just 11 home runs during that span. His OPS has decreased in each season, falling all the way to .584 in 2022.
There are reasons to believe that Robles can bounce back in 2023. Robles is only 25 years old. He stole a career-high 28 bases as a rookie. MLB's new rules, notably the introduction of larger bases and pick-off limits, could allow Robles to wreak havoc on the bases.
The one area in which Robles has lived up to the hype is with his glove. One of MLB's best defensive centerfielders, Robles had 1.8 WAR in 2022. Even as a slightly below-average hitter, Robles could have a positive overall impact on the Nationals because of his defense and speed.
Dominic Smith, 1B
Dominic Smith is looking to resurrect a once-promising MLB career. The New York Mets non-tendered the first baseman after a disappointing two-year stretch. Smith posted career lows across the board in the 2022 season. The left-hander hit .194/.276./.284 with no home runs in 152 plate appearances.
Smith hit .282/.355/.525 over 89 games in the 2019 season. The 60-game 2020 season looked like it would be Smith's breakout campaign. Smith finished 13th in the NL MVP race. He hit .316/.377/.616 with 10 home runs in the truncated season. In 2021, Smith's OPS plummeted to .667.
In New York, Smith was often in and out of the lineup. The former first-round draft pick never quite settled in as a starter for the Mets. The 2021 season was the only time in which Smith got a chance to be a mainstay in the lineup over the course of 162 games. After Smith's batting average fell to .244 and much of his power disappeared, the Mets signed multiple corner outfielders in free agency. Smith was relegated to the bench.
Smith will face much less pressure in Washington than he did under the bright lights of New York. Unlike the Mets, the Nationals aren't expected to contend for a championship. Maybe the change of scenery will help Smith return to being the player who was dangerous at the plate only a few seasons ago.
Stephen Strasburg is the most obvious Nationals player who is in desperate need of a bounce-back season. The starting pitcher has to prove that he can play again in the major leagues, let alone return to being the ace of the staff. Strasburg underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in July 2021. Complications from the procedure have kept him out of action since June.
Any kind of on-field contribution that Strasburg could make in 2023 would have to be deemed a success. Since signing a seven-year, $245 million contract after the 2019 World Series, Strasburg has been limited to 31.1 total innings. If Strasburg doesn't pitch this season, it could mean that his MLB career is finished.
It wasn't all that long ago when Strasburg was one of the best pitchers in baseball. The right-hander had 251 strikeouts and a 3.32 ERA in 209 innings for the 2019 season. Strasburg had a 1.98 ERA in 36.1 playoff innings on his way to winning the World Series MVP award. In the 2017 season, Strasburg led the NL with a 2.72 ERA and a league-low 0.7 homers allowed per nine innings.
Strasburg is only 34 years old. The three-time All-Star has a 3.24 ERA for his career. There is hope among Nationals' players that Strasburg can find a way to make a comeback.
Patrick Corbin, SP
Could any player who isn’t coming back from an injury use a bounce-back season more than Patrick Corbin? Strasburg hasn’t been able to get on the mound since the Nationals’ championship run, but Corbin has arguably been the worst starting pitcher in MLB.
Corbin gave up the most hits in the league in 2020 and posted a 4.66 ERA. One season later, Corbin’s ERA ballooned to 5.82. In the 2022 season, the left-hander went 6-19 with a 6.31 ERA and a 1.69 WHP.
Few starters in recent memory have put together a worse two-year stretch than Corbin. The 33-year-old has gone 15-37 with a 6.05 ERA. Corbin surrendered the most runs and lost the most games in the league each year. If he didn’t have two seasons left on his six-year, $140 million contract, Corbin would likely be fighting for a roster spot on another team in spring training.
Corbin was the victim of some bad luck last season. His 4.83 FIP was much lower than his ERA. Perhaps some good fortune will come his way in 2023. If Corbin can occasionally resemble the pitcher who posted a 3.20 ERA in his first two seasons with the Nationals, Washington might be thrilled.
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