The Washington Nationals, eight games out of the NL East and 11 games behind in the NL Wild Card race, have officially let teams know they will be selling at the trade deadline this year.
While all eyes are on impending free agent and future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer and where he will be dealt despite that no-trade clause of his, Ken Rosenthal wrote in The Athletic over the weekend that the Nationals have bigger questions to start answering about their future. Specifically, what should they do with shortstop Trea Turner and outfielder Juan Soto?
Could one or both them really be on the move?
It may seem like a ludicrous proposition, given that Turner doesn't become a free agent until 2023 and Soto is just 22 years old and under team control until 2025. But the Nationals are trying to avoid that painful purgatory teams enter when contention windows close, aging stars move on, and the seemingly endless rebuilding phase begins. You could become the Detroit Tigers, who now finally see a light at the end of the tunnel after years of torment, or the Pittsburgh Pirates, who, after numerous resets, once again seem further away from contending than ever before.
Rebuilding is no certain thing, especially when you have a farm as depleted as Washington's system. So the questions about Turner and Soto must be asked, because they would command significant hauls in any trade scenarios.
Either of these trades certainly could happen, but would either of them actually take place in 2021?
This season, Turner is hitting .319/.367/.521 with 18 home runs, 49 RBI and a 137 wRC+. It's another great year for the 28-year-old, who no doubt saw what kind of money Francisco Lindor got from the New York Mets and will be looking to get something similar — maybe more — when he hits free agency.
Soto has shaken off an early shoulder injury to put together another fantastic season, hitting .295/.420/.505 with 17 home runs, 55 RBI and a 147 wRC+. He's also walking more than he strikes out, which always gets my juices flowing.
These are obviously two studs through which the Nationals could build a team, but then you have to consider the money currently tied up in pitching. Even with Scherzer likely gone, the Nationals are enduring a seven-year, $245 million deal (through 2026) for oft-injured starter Stephen Strasburg, and left-hander Patrick Corbin is in the middle of a six-year, $140 million deal and is currently sporting an ERA of 5.30 over the past two seasons.
On top of that, the Nationals would have to give gargantuan contracts to Turner and Soto. We're talking the $300 million monster deals that are eventually going to become $350 million to $400 million deals as spending on MLB superstars continues to reach unbelievable levels. It's not impossible for the Nationals to do this, and these hypothetical deals wouldn't overlap entirely with the albatross pitching contracts, but what would the rest of the team look like?
Baseball fans often get caught up in acquiring or re-signing a huge free agent, but is retaining one superstar at the expense of the rest of the team really the best way to go about it? Just ask the Philadelphia Phillies or Los Angles Angels how hard it is to pull that off.
It's never easy trading beloved fan favorites, but the fact of the matter is that even teams with deep pockets have to be shrewd in their spending if they want to contend for extended periods of time.
Ultimately for the rest of baseball, the price is likely going to be too steep to trade for Trea Turner this year. It's REALLY going to be too steep to trade for a true superstar like Juan Soto, who is just beginning to tap into his dominating potential.
There is no doubt the future is on the mind of the Nationals organization, and it's ultimately pretty murky whether Turner or Soto will fit into those plans. Because of his age, Soto seems like the right fit for Washington to build around, but if the right offer came along in the next few years when the team is likely to be struggling … well, that's another story.
If one had to guess, the Nationals are going to eventually try to sign Soto long-term while almost everyone else currently on the team — think Turner (especially next year), Brad Hand, Josh Harrison, Kyle Schwarber, etc. — will be an expendable piece Washington will try to flip for as many prospects as possible. It's never fun coming to grips with the fast-changing makeup of a roster, but making tough — often very unpopular — moves can help a team get back to prominence much quicker than the notion of keeping the band together for nostalgia's sake would.
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