Anyone who thought that the NBA In-Season Tournament was going to fail was very wrong. Not only have all 30 teams and all the players around the league bought into this idea of competing for something early in the season, but basketball fans seem to enjoy this tournament given the fact that attendance for the month of November is well above average.
The group stage of the in-season tournament has concluded, so now it is time for the final eight teams to take the main stage. Only one team can win the first-ever NBA Cup, as the Los Angeles Lakers, Phoenix Suns, Milwaukee Bucks, Boston Celtics, Indiana Pacers, New Orleans Pelicans, New York Knicks, and Sacramento Kings are all looking to punch their ticket to Las Vegas.
It is officially time for the knockout stage of the NBA In-Season Tournament, and there are four very intriguing matchups that will determine who the final four teams are. Who will advance and what will each matchup look like?
Here's a full breakdown and predictions for the knockout rounds of the inaugural NBA In-Season Tournament.
Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers
Eastern Conference In-Season Tournament Quarterfinals
The first quarterfinal game that will be played features the Boston Celtics hitting the road to take on the Indiana Pacers, who went a perfect 4-0 in group play. So far this season, no team has looked more dominant than the Celtics, as they rank seventh in offensive rating and second in defensive rating. Boston's starting rotation of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, and Kristaps Porzingis is perhaps the best starting group in the entire NBA.
Currently 15-4 on the season, the Celtics have been virtually impossible to stop, but they are 6-4 on the road. In a big game on the road against the Pacers, who are currently the best offensive team in the league, Boston could be vulnerable with Porzingis still sidelined.
Even though their 10-8 record may not show it, the Pacers are a really solid team that can score in a lot more ways than just one. Tyrese Haliburton has quickly turned himself into one of the best guards in the entire league, as his 11.8 assists per game average currently leads the NBA. Haliburton is questionable to play with an illness that kept him out of his team's last game, but Indiana was actually able to beat the Miami Heat without him. The hope is the Pacers star will be able to suit up Monday.
Outside of Haliburton, who is averaging 27.0 points per game, Indiana has seven other players averaging double-digit points per game. The Pacers may not play a lick of defense, but they play fast and punish teams who do not get back in transition.
This matchup could really get interesting if the Pacers play physical and are able to push the pace of play. The Celtics are a great defensive team in the half court, so being able to attack the basket before Boston gets set will prove to be advantageous for the Pacers.
Key to the game: Transition offense vs. transition defense
The Pacers currently average 17.7 fast-break points per game, which is first in the NBA. The Celtics currently rank sixth in opponent's fast-break points per game, surrendering an average of 12.8 points per game in transition. There is always the potential for a blowout when talking about the Celtics' offense, but this is ultimately where the game will be decided.
Indiana is not a great rebounding team, nor are they known for playing any defense. Their only chance to pull off this surprising in-season tournament upset on their home floor over the Celtics is to try and simply score more than their opponents. As cliché as it may sound, the Pacers just need to put up more points than Boston and shoot better from the floor against them.
In order to do this, the Pacers must have Haliburton, Bruce Brown, Obi Toppin, and Bennedict Mathurin push the pace for all 48 minutes, not allowing the Celtics to slow things down to their style of play. That could be tough for Haliburton if he's still fighting through his illness, but it's what needs to be done in order to win. Toppin is also questionable with an ankle injury, so he may be a bit limited as well if he gives it a go.
On the other side of things, the Celtics can simply play their style. Boston matches up with Indiana really well. While the Pacers only have offensive production, the Celtics can damage their opponents on both ends of the court. This first in-season tournament quarterfinal game will be a test of endurance vs. shooting percentage.
NBA In-Season Tournament Prediction: Celtics advance to the semifinals
New York Knicks at Milwaukee Bucks
Eastern Conference In-Season Tournament Quarterfinals
The Celtics and Pacers will play the first Eastern Conference quarterfinal game on Monday night and then the New York Knicks and Milwaukee Bucks will play the second East quarterfinal game on Tuesday night.
These two teams have already played one another during the in-season tournament, as the Bucks and Knicks were both in East Group B. Milwaukee got a win at home over New York, defeating them 110-105 behind 30 points from Damian Lillard. Jalen Brunson had a season-high 45 points on 17-of-30 shooting against the Bucks in this game. Brunson's 45 points are the most scored by any player in an in-season tournament game this year.
Whereas the Bucks are known for their offensive firepower between Dame and Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Knicks are a hard-nosed defensive team that looks to wear their opponents down for all 48 minutes. New York did have some success against Milwaukee when Antetokounmpo and/or Lillard were not in the game during the group stage of this tournament.
The Knicks are talented enough to cause some troubles for the Bucks, but the key question to this game revolves around Julius Randle and which version of him shows up.
Key to the game: Julius Randle
Some nights, Julius Randle looks like an All-Star and one of the best big men in the league due to his strength and abilities to attack the paint on offense. Other nights, Randle disappears and leaves Brunson to be a one-man show on offense. When these two teams met earlier in the tournament, Randle had 16 points on 5-of-20 shooting.
Brunson can do his thing offensively all night long, but the fact of the matter is that the Knicks are going to be as good as Randle can make them offensively. He is the key to them finding ultimate success and possibly becoming a real threat in the Eastern Conference playoff picture.
Not to mention, Randle has the size to be able to impact the game on the offensive and defensive glass. The Bucks rank fifth in defensive rebounding and the Knicks rank second in offensive rebounding. If Randle can help the Knicks create second-chance scoring opportunities and can be a factor scoring, New York will be able to pull off this upset in Milwaukee.
Prediction: Bucks advance to semifinals
New Orleans Pelicans at Sacramento Kings
Western Conference In-Season Tournament Quarterfinals
The New Orleans Pelicans won West Group B with a 3-1 record, while the Sacramento Kings won West Group C with a 4-0 record. This game on Monday night will be the third time the Pelicans and Kings have squared off this season, as New Orleans has picked up two home wins over Sacramento so far.
What's impressive about the Pelicans defeating the Kings twice this season is that they did so without CJ McCollum, Trey Murphy III, and Jose Alvarado due to Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram combining for 57 points in the first meeting and 48 points in the second meeting. Overall, the Pelicans were able to limit one of the league's better offensive teams to just 93 points and then 112 points.
New Orleans is a much better team than their 11-10 record suggests, as they are more than capable of running the table and winning the whole NBA In-Season Tournament. In a knockout stage game, all eyes will be on the scoring matchup between Zion Williamson and De'Aaron Fox.
Key to the game: Zion Williamson vs. De'Aaron Fox
Williamson is not going to be the primary defender on Fox and Fox is not going to be the primary defender on Williamson. However, the scoring output these two All-Stars give their respective teams may very well prove to be the difference in this tournament game.
In recent games, Zion has found his stride and often acts as the Pelicans' point guard. Over his last eight games, Williamson is averaging 26.1 points, 5.6 assists, and 4.9 rebounds per game while shooting a very efficient 62.7 percent from the floor.
When looking at the Kings' roster, Zion is a complete mismatch, especially if Keegan Murray is limited after missing four of the Kings' last five games with a back injury. Between Williamson's playmaking abilities and attacking the paint, the Pelicans forward could really swing the tide in this one, especially if he gets Domantas Sabonis in foul trouble.
As for Fox, he has proven time and time again that he's a top-five scoring guard in the league. Fox has scored at least 26 points in each of his last five games and has recorded at least 29 points in every single in-season tournament game he has played in. In two games against the Kings earlier this month, the Kings star recorded just 40 combined points in back-to-back games.
With a trip to the semifinals on the line, Fox is going to show out and bring his best against a Pelicans team that ranks near the bottom of the league in fouling. Getting to the free-throw line and exploiting New Orleans on the interior is something the Kings guard will look to do.
Prediction: Pelicans advance to semifinals
Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers
Western Conference In-Season Tournament Quarterfinals
This is perhaps the most anticipated NBA In-Season Tournament knockout stage game. We are always in for a treat when Kevin Durant and LeBron James take the court in the same game, which is why this matchup is the one everyone has circled in this tournament.
The Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers have already faced off against one another this season, as the Lakers have picked up two wins over the Suns both at home and on the road. It is worth noting that Phoenix was without superstar guard Devin Booker for both of these matchups. Heading into this critical in-season tournament game, Booker's status will once again be in question, as the star has been dealing with an ankle injury in recent weeks.
A classic matchup between superstars, the spotlight will be cast on KD vs. LeBron, two of the greatest players of the last two decades. Only one of these teams will advance to Las Vegas for a chance to compete for the NBA Cup, and free-throw differential could ultimately decide this one between two playoff contending teams in the Western Conference.
Key to the game: Winning at the free-throw line
The Lakers are not a very talented offensive team. They rank among the bottom of the league in offensive rating and tend to struggle scoring when LeBron or Anthony Davis are not in the game. However, Los Angeles has always been great at getting to the free-throw line, a trend that has continued this season.
So far, the Lakers rank fifth in free throws attempted and sixth in free throws made per game. In their two matchups against the Suns, Los Angeles attempted 29 and 34 free throws, going a combined 49-for-63 (77.8 percent) from the charity stripe. While this may not be a great percentage, the Lakers' narrow three-point and five-point victories over the Suns this season were impacted by their ability to attack the interior.
Already without Bradley Beal, who will not be returning from his back injury for the in-season tournament, the Suns' offense could wind up taking a huge hit if Booker is forced to miss this game as well. Booker's potential absence would leave Durant as their only pure scoring option alongside secondary talents in Eric Gordon, Grayson Allen, and Jusuf Nurkic.
Seeing as the Lakers are going to look to expose them on the interior, much like they did in the first two matchups this season, the Suns could wind up getting in foul trouble early on in the game. This will end up being problematic, especially since Phoenix's depth is not necessarily reliable nor threatening.
If Booker is able to play, that changes this game tremendously, as the Suns will be able to get in a groove and flow offensively against an average Lakers defense. In a scenario where Booker is out and Davis looks to play aggressive on the interior against Nurkic, it's hard to envision Phoenix controlling this game.
Prediction: Lakers advance to semifinals
Semifinals & championship predictions
Based on the predictions above, we could wind up seeing the Lakers take on the Pelicans to represent the Western Conference in the NBA In-Season Tournament championship game. On the other side of the bracket, we may wind up seeing a preview of what could become this season's Eastern Conference Finals between the Bucks and Celtics.
When focusing on the West and a potential matchup between the Pelicans and Lakers, it's important to point out that New Orleans is beginning to find their identity. More importantly, the Pelicans are getting healthy with CJ McCollum and Trey Murphy III back on the court. Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram finally have their supporting cast around them, which is why the Pelicans can match up with any team in this league.
LeBron James always tends to step up his play in big playoff/tournament-like games, which is why the 38-year-old is more than capable of going for 40-plus points, putting his team on his back en route to the championship game.
In the East, the Celtics and Bucks were not only the two favorites to represent the conference in the NBA In-Season Tournament championship game, but make the NBA Finals and lift the Larry O'Brien Trophy. The narratives surrounding this potential matchup speak volumes on what we should expect to see when these two teams take the court.
Jrue Holiday faces off against his old team. Damian Lillard looks to finally do something late in his career with a championship contender. Then you have Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Jayson Tatum, as well as Khris Middleton vs. Jaylen Brown. Anything could happen in a matchup between the Celtics and Bucks, two of the very best teams in the NBA.
Should these be the two semifinal matchups, the Pelicans would have a slim advantage over the Lakers seeing as they have a little bit more reliable depth and would have momentum, which is a scary thing to think about for a fast and athletic team. Between the Celtics and Bucks, this matchup would be determined based on the production of Middleton and Holiday. Boston is 1-0 against Milwaukee this season, so give them a slight 51 percent to 49 percent edge while previewing this potential game.
So, it could all come down to the Pelicans taking on the Celtics in what would be a fascinating championship game. New Orleans believes they have the best roster in the league right now. When they have been fully healthy, the Pelicans have been one of the better teams in the NBA.
Speaking of the best team in the NBA, the Celtics own the top record at 15-4 on the season. The Pelicans guard well with Herb Jones as an All-Defensive type of talent, but they wouldn't be able to stop all Boston's weapons. The Celtics are clearly the favorite to win this tournament and are on a mission to win a championship this season after coming up short in 2022.
Expect the Celtics to send a statement to the rest of the NBA by claiming the first-ever NBA Cup in Las Vegas.
NBA In-Season Tournament champion prediction: Boston Celtics
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