The Detroit Pistons (3-12) travel to face the Los Angeles Clippers (8-7) on Thursday. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:30 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Pistons-Clippers prediction and pick.
The Pistons have lost four straight games and are in last place in the Eastern Conference. Detroit is 6-8-1 against the spread while 64% of their games have gone over. The Clippers, meanwhile, are in ninth place in the Western Conference after their most recent loss to the Mavericks. Los Angeles is 7-8 against the spread and 80% of their games have gone under. The Clippers won both matchups between the teams last season by 11 and four-point margins. Both matchups last year went under tonight's 217-point total.
Here are the Pistons-Clippers NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Pistons-Clippers Odds
Detroit Pistons: +9 (-108)
Los Angeles Clippers: -9 (-112)
Over: 217 (-110)
Under: 217 (-110)
Why The Pistons Could Cover The Spread
Detroit is one of the worst teams in the league thus far. They have the 28th-ranked scoring offense and are 26th in offensive efficiency. Their defense is somehow worse. They rank 30th in defensive efficiency and have given up the 28th-most points in the league. The Pistons do themselves no favors on the glass, either, as they are 23rd in rebound differential and 13th in rebound rate.
The Pistons will again be without their best player, point guard Cade Cunningham. In his absence, Forward Bojan Bogdanovic and guard Jaden Ivey have shouldered the majority of the scoring load. Bogdanovic has averaged 23.7 PPG with Cade out, but he's been their leading scorer even when everyone was healthy. For the season Bojan averages 20.1 PPG and has been very efficient. Bogdanovic shoots 50% from the field and 42% from three. He's been on fire of late – averaging 23.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 4.0 assists while shooting 55%. His hot stroke of late is something worth keeping in mind when making a Pistons-C
If the Pistons are going to cover as heavy underdogs, it'll largely be determined by the play of rookie guard Jaden Ivey. Ivey averages 16.1 PPG, 5.0 RPG, and 4.1 APG while shooting 44% from the field. He's stepped up in Cade's absence, averaging 19 PPG in the three games Cunningham has missed. Ivey is a dynamic scorer but has struggled with consistency this season. He is, however, coming off two of the best games of his young career. In the last two Ivey has scored 21 and 26 points. He also flashed his playmaking in the last matchup by racking up a career-high eight assists.
Why The Clippers Could Cover The Spread
The Clippers have done a great job keeping their season steady in the continued absence of Kawhi Leonard. LA has largely relied on their elite defense this season. The Clippers are fourth in points allowed and have the second-most efficient defense. They have really struggled on the offensive end, ranking 29th in offensive efficiency and last in points per game. LA is an average rebounding team – ranking 17th in rebound differential and 18th in rebound rate.
LA's defense is stout enough to shut down a weak Pistons lineup, but they are still going to have to score to cover a large spread. Scoring has been an issue for the Clippers, but that's by no fault of forward Paul George. George leads the team with 24.3 PPG while also contributing 6.1 RPG and 4.6 APG. He is questionable, however, with a left-hand injury — something to monitor when making a Pistons-Clippers prediction.
Whether George plays or not, the Clippers will need production out of their role players. Guard John Wall and forward Marcus Morris have been the two guys stepping up lately. Morris is the team's second-leading scorer, averaging 15 PPG. He's also chipped in 5.7 RPG and has been incredibly efficient. Morris is shooting 51% overall and 40% from three. He's coming off an 18-point game against Dallas. Wall has been nearly as impressive, especially of late. The veteran point guard averages 13 PPG and 5.0 APG. He scored 17 points, dished out four assists, and pulled down six rebounds.
The X-factor for the Clippers tonight has to be center Ivica Zubac. Zubac averages 10 points and 10.6 rebounds for the season while serving as the primary rim protector. His 2.1 blocks per game rank second in the league. Zubac has struggled lately, scoring just 12 points across his last two games.
Final Pistons-Clippers Prediction & Pick
The Pistons are horrendous and without Cade Cunningham, I don't see how they get past 100 points. That being said, the Clippers have been incredibly inconsistent on offense. Stay away from the lofty spread and hammer the under in what should be a barn burner.
Final Pistons-Clippers Prediction & Pick: Under 217 (-110)
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