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A lot of people expected the Miami Heat to be better this season, but I'm not sure how many people expected them to be this good.
The Heat are 35-19 at the All-Star break and sit in fourth place in the Eastern Conference, and while they are clearly a step or two below the top contenders in the East, they are still in pretty good shape.
Obviously, the offseason addition of Jimmy Butler has changed everything. Yes, he has kind of forgotten how to shoot, but his two-way play and his leadership has clearly energized this franchise.
We have also witnessed a breakout season from Bam Adebayo, who was being stunted by Hassan Whiteside before the Heat finally jettisoned Whiteside to the Portland Trail Blazers this past summer.
Not only that, but Miami has gotten terrific production from rookies Kendrick Nunn and Tyler Herro, second-year forward Duncan Robinson has developed into one heck of a sniper and former Blazers big man Meyers Leonard has clearly found a home in South Beach, shooting 42.9 percent from three-point range.
And of course, Miami added Andre Iguodala at the trade deadline.
All of that being said, does Miami have enough to make a serious run, or is it likely going to flame out in the playoffs because it simply does not have the type of top-level talent that fellow Eastern Conference contenders like the Milwaukee Bucks, Boston Celtics, Philadelphia 76ers and even the Indiana Pacers possess?
I see the Heat as being more of a Toronto Raptors type of squad, one that has a great collection of role players that plays very well as a unit but simply won't have enough oomph to get over the hump when the time comes.
Yes, Butler and Adebayo are both All-Stars, but the rest of Miami's roster is very unproven and is, for the most part, not playoff tested.
Goran Dragic is still aboard and is having a decent season, and the Heat did pick up Jae Crowder from the Memphis Grizzlies in the Iguodala deal, as well, but again, none of these guys are really stars.
Even Adebayo, who is one of the best bigs in the conference, is questionable in that regard, because he is not someone you can rely on for scoring night in and night out.
Think about the Utah Jazz over the last few years. As dominant as Rudy Gobert has been defensively, they have not been able to make much noise in the postseason because Gobert simply has not provided enough on the offensive end.
The Heat kind of fall into that same category, with Butler playing the role of Donovan Mitchell.
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I will say that this Miami squad certainly has a heck of a lot more shooters than those previous Jazz teams did, ranging from Robinson to Herro to Dragic to Kelly Olynyk, but still, the talent disparity between the top teams in the East and the Heat seems pretty evident at this point in time.
Additionally, Miami is not a great defensive ballclub, either.
While the Bucks, Raptors and Celtics rank 1-2-3 in the NBA in defensive efficiency with the 76ers coming in at No. 5, the Heat are 13th, and while that isn't terrible, it's not where you want to be as a contender.
So let's think about this for a second: the Heat don't really have any incredibly reliable go-to options offensively outside of Butler and maybe Dragic, and their defense isn't all that impressive.
Doesn't exactly seem like a recipe for playoff success.
Some more food for thought is that Miami is just 13-16 on the road this season. No, it's not Sixers bad (Philadelphia is 9-19 away from home), but it's something that could pose a problem for the Heat in the playoffs.
On the flip side, Miami is 22-3 at home, and at No. 4 in the East, it would have home-court advantage in the first round if the season ended today, but that also means if it loses one of the first two games at American Airlines Arena, it could be in some serous trouble.
I'm not trying to rain on the Heat's parade. I think they have had a terrific season, and they have far exceeded my expectations. The future is also very bright for them given all of the young talent they own and the upcoming cap space they will have in the coming years.
But right now? In February 2020? There aren't really great answers to the questions surrounding Miami at the hiatus. The Heat are good, and they could potentially win a playoff series, but I can't see this team going any further than the second round.
They just don't have enough firepower.
