John Calipari has brought success to every college program he has been part of. He brought UMass to a Final Four, Memphis to the national championship game, and won it all with Kentucky. Now, he is looking to bring that success to Arkansas. In his first year, Arkansas made a run to the Sweet 16. Calipari is one of the winningest coaches of all-time, but does he have a team that can contend for a title this year?
Arkansas is currently 16-6 on the season and 6-3 in conference play. Their first loss came in the second game of the season in a tight game with Michigan State, losing 69-66. They would then win four in a row before a nine-point loss to Duke. Arkansas does have upsets over Louisville and Texas Tech, as well as quality wins over Tennessee and Vanderbilt. Still, they have losses to Houston, Auburn, Georgia, and Kentucky.
While the team has some shocking losses, they are in a better spot than they were last year. The Razorbacks already had 11 losses by the time they won their 16th game last season, plus they opened up SEC play with a five-game losing streak. They finished the season 20-13 after being knocked out by Ole Miss in the SEC tournament. That got them a ten-seed in the NCAA tournament. They then upset Kansas and St. John's before falling to Texas Tech in overtime to end their season in the Sweet 16.
This year, Arkansas is currently projected as a seven-seed. Still, they have some glaring weaknesses that could shut down a run quickly.
Arkansas needs to be better on the glass
Arkansas has struggled in the rebounding game this year. They are 108th in the nation in rebounds pergame while also 252nd in defensive rebounding percentage. They do not have a dominant player who can control the glass for the team. Trevon Brazile leads the way in the rebounding game. He has just 6.9 rebounds per game to lead the team. Meanwhile, Malique Ewin has five rebounds per game, which is second on the team. No one else has more than five rebounds per game.
Meanwhile, Arkansas has been consistent in losing the rebounding battle when they lose games. The Razorbacks have been out-rebounded by nine or more rebounds in four of the six losses this year. The major issues have been the other team getting offensive rebounds. That leads to opponents getting plenty of second-chance points, leading to losses for Arkansas. It is also something that turns a tight game into a loss, as seen in the earlier loss to Michigan State. Games are tighter in the tournament, and allowing a team to capitalize on second-chance points is a recipe for a loss.
The Razorbacks' defense is a detriment
The Arkansas offense has been great this year. They are tenth in the nation in points per game, seventh in field goals made per game, and fifth in assist-to-turnover ratio. Further, they have an offense that is good enough to win in March, sitting seventh in offensive efficiency rating according to KenPom. Still, the defense is a major detriment. They are 68th in defensive efficiency according to KenPom.
The defense is 249th in opponent points per game, while sitting 162nd in opponent effective field goal percentage. They play with a quick pace, leading to the Razorbacks giving up 63.4 field goal attempts per game, which is 344th in Division I. Still, they struggle with stopping quality shots in the paint. Opponents are shooting 53.1 percent inside the arc against Arkansas, which is 241st nationally. Further, they are one of the worst in the SEC in opoonent second chance points, and opponet three-pointrs made per game.
Adding to the issue of the defense is that Arkansas plays with the 27th quickest pace in the nation. While this can be great when the offense is clicking, when the offense struggles or faces a quality defense, the inability to stop the other team leads to quick runs, and either losing leads or building large deficits. If Arkansas can only rely on its offense, a team is going to find a way to stop them at some point, and the Razorbacks will not be winning the title.
Arkansas is a prime candidate to be upset
Arkansas is primed to be upset in the NCAA tournament. To begin with, John Calipari has not been immune to upsets in the tournament. In 2024, three-seed Kentucky was upset by 14-seed Oakland in Calipari's final year with the Wildcats. In 2022, Kentucky was on the wrong end of the start to a historic run. They lost in overtime to the 15-seed Saint Peter's in the first round, as Saint Peter's made a run to the Elite Eight. Calipari has not led a team to the Final Four in over a decade and has been eliminated in the first weekend in three of the last four times he has gone to the tournament.
Meanwhile, Arkansas is on the path to a six or seven seed in the NCAA tournament. Since 2011, a six seed has been upset by an 11 seed 29 times, and in every single tournament. Further, since the NCAA tournament added a First Four format, one of those teams, often as an 11-seed, has made upsets. Since the change in format in 2011, a team that played in the First Four has won in the first round in 12 of 14 seasons. A six seed has not made the Final Four since 1992, when Michigan went to the Finals. They have won it all just once, and that was in 1988 when Kansas won it all.
Meanwhile, seven seeds have it even more difficult. Seven seeds are upset in the first round roughly 40 percent of the time, or between one and two times every single tournament. Further, only three seven-seeds have made it to the Final Four. Recently, Michigan State did it in 2015, and South Carolina did so in 2017. UConn also won the tournament as a seven in 2014.
The odds are stacked against Arkansas just based on seeding, adding in the fact that Calipari has fallen victim to upsets, and Arkansas has not seen the Final Four since 1994-95, the outlook for Arkansas is not good. That places them firmly in the pretender category.
