In just one year, Auburn has gone from earning the No. 1 overall seed in the 2025 NCAA Tournament to being a fringe March Madness bubble team in 2026. The Tigers are just 15-13 through 28 games and might need a deep SEC Tournament run to avoid losing missing the Big Dance for the first time since 2021.
A lot has changed in Auburn since its historic 2024-2025 season, beginning at the top. Head coach Bruce Pearl stepped down at the end of the year and designated his son, Steven, as his successor. The Tigers also lost SEC Player of the Year Johni Broome, and veteran guards Chad Baker-Mazara, Denver Jones and Miles Kelly.
Auburn struggled with the adjustment early, suffering blowout losses to Michigan, Arizona and Purdue in non-conference play. Steven Pearl appeared to right the ship with a four-game win streak in SEC play, including wins over Florida and Texas, only for the team to drop its next five games.
Auburn's yo-yo season has produced a handful of good wins — beating St. John's, NC State, Arkansas and Kentucky, in addition to Florida — but an equal amount of disappointing losses. The Tigers are 5-11 in Quad 1 games and a discouraging 2-2 against Quad 2, according to the NET Rankings.
Like all sports, recency bias plays a heavy role in college basketball, and Auburn's horrific month of February could have doomed it.
With only one of its final three games against a Quad 1 opponent, Pearl's squad is running out of real estate to make an impression on the selection committee. Auburn's four-year NCAA Tournament streak will likely come to a close unless it can impress in the SEC Tournament enough to sneak into the 68-team March Madness field.
Auburn's current March Madness odds
Despite Auburn's unappealing 15-13 record, analytic sites remain inexplicably high on its March Madness odds. Even on their strength of schedule, the Tigers are 11th in the SEC with a 6-9 conference record. Barring a deep conference tournament run, those numbers are difficult to justify.
However, Auburn has a 93.3 percent chance to receive the nod on Selection Sunday, according to TeamRankings. The site gives the team only a 1.4 percent chance of winning the SEC Tournament and earning an automatic bid.
TeamRankings projects Auburn will be a 10 seed in the 2026 March Madness bracket. It gives them just a 1.1 percent chance to make another Final Four run.
ESPN college basketball analyst Joe Lunardi agrees that Auburn will make the cut, slotting the Tigers in as a No. 11 seed in his latest Bracketology update. Lunardi has Pearl's team among his “last four in” picks, suggesting it will have to earn its way into the traditional 64-team field.
Las Vegas oddsmakers are much less confident in the Tigers making the final cut. Bettors can find Auburn's odds to make the NCAA Tournament at -150 on FanDuel Sportsbook and -130 on Bet365 Sportsbook. Those odds imply a 60 percent probability and a 56.5 percent probability, respectively.
Those odds are updated as of Auburn's 91-79 loss to Oklahoma on Feb. 24. They can certainly increase with a win over Ole Miss on Feb. 28, and potentially shoot up the board if the Tigers can upset No. 17 Alabama in their regular season finale.
Given its recent results, Auburn has a lot of ground to cover before March Madness begins. Even if they receive a controversial bid, the Tigers will not have much postseason success with the way they are currently playing.
Path to the Big Dance
Auburn's final three games of the 2025-2026 college basketball regular season are all winnable, but none will come easily. The Tigers end the season facing Ole Miss and LSU at home before ending the year against in-state rival Alabama in Tuscaloosa.
Ole Miss is one of the six SEC teams Auburn has beaten, which should give the Tigers confidence ahead of the must-win game. Pearl's team will likely be favored in that contest and its ensuing Senior Night game against LSU.
Auburn should win both games, but nothing can be taken for granted at this point in the season. Coming off a disappointing loss to Oklahoma, the Tigers still have everything to prove in the next week.
Auburn's final game against Alabama is also winnable, as slim as the odds might be. The Tigers took their biggest conference rival to the wire in the first meeting, dropping a drama-filled 92-92 battle on Feb. 7.
The main difference in the rematch will be the location. Alabama will play host the second time around in Coleman Coliseum, where it is 11-3 on the year, while Auburn will bring its 2-7 road record into the pivotal affair.
Even if Auburn takes care of business against Ole Miss and LSU, it would still end the season at 17-14 with a loss to Alabama. Teams almost never make the NCAA Tournament cut with that type of record. The Tigers will desperately need to string a pair of wins in the SEC Tournament to increase their odds of reaching the promised land.
With two SEC titles in the last seven years, Auburn is always a threat in the conference tournament and March Madness. They almost certainly need at least one postseason conference victory to give themselves a small chance on Selection Sunday.
