The 2025-2026 college basketball season has been a roller coaster of emotions for Indiana, which began the year as a top-25 program, only to find its March Madness hopes clinging by a thread by the end. The Hoosiers' NCAA Tournament odds have gradually declined in Big Ten play, leaving them in a precarious position entering March.
Following a disappointing loss to Northwestern to close out February, Indiana sits at a meager 17-11 with three games remaining in the regular season. The heartbreaking loss in a must-win game delivered a significant blow to the Hoosiers' NCAA Tournament aspirations, as it was a soft spot on paper between games against No. 8 Illinois, No. 7 Purdue and No. 13 Michigan State.
Now on a three-game skid, Indiana might be forced to win at least two more games to even be considered by the selection committee. A statement victory over Michigan State or Ohio State would work wonders, but Darian DeVries has struggled immensely against Quad 1 competition in his first season in Bloomington.
Indiana is just 2-10 against Quad 1 opponents through February, according to the NET Rankings. While many of those losses are competitive, the results are all that matter to the committee once Selection Sunday rolls around.
Indiana effectively fired Mike Woodson following consecutive 19-win seasons that each resulted in missing the March Madness cut and is currently on track for a regression in DeVries' first season at the helm. The Hoosiers have their work cut out for them in the coming weeks and need to make a statement in the Big Ten Tournament.
Indiana March Madness odds
Indiana's poor record and inconsistency leave its March Madness odds entirely up in the air. Following their loss to Northwestern, no one can agree on whether the Hoosiers will be dancing in March.
Oddsmakers' opinions of the Hoosiers' NCAA Tournament hopes vary by the sportsbook. Indiana is a slight favorite, listed at -125 to make the 68-team bracket on FanDuel Sportsbook, and -102 to miss the cut. Those odds decrease to +120 to earn the nod on Bet365 Sportsbook.
However, basketball analytics suggest that Indiana has a better than 50-50 chance of making it to the Big Dance. The Hoosiers are given a 90.3 percent chance to make the cut by TeamRankings, which projects them as an 11 seed in the NCAA Tournament. TeamRankings gives them a 0.5 percent chance of winning the Big Ten Tournament and earning an automatic bid.
ESPN college basketball analyst Joe Lunardi agrees with that breakdown, listing Indiana as an 11 seed in his end-of-February Bracketology update. Lunardi has the Hoosiers in his “last four byes” category, part of the final group to earn a bid and bypass the First Four play-in round.
While most appear to believe Indiana will make the 68-team March Madness bracket, few see it going very far. The Hoosiers have a slim 0.8 percent chance of making the Final Four, according to TeamRankings. Their Final Four odds are listed at +1500 on FanDuel Sportsbook, which implies a 6.3 percent probability.
Path to the Big Dance
Indiana's loss to Northwestern puts it in a do-or-die situation in nearly every game for the remainder of the 2025-2026 college basketball season. That is a difficult position to be in with matchups against No. 13 Michigan State, Minnesota and Ohio State on deck.
Not only is Michigan State a bona fide Quad 1 team, but it will travel to Bloomington riding the high of its 76-74 win over Purdue. The victory was the team's first in Mackey Arena since 2014 and its fourth win in its last five games.
Indiana and Michigan State have already met once before, with the Spartans taking a commanding 81-60 win in East Lansing on Jan. 13. Tom Izzo's team dominated the boards, winning the rebounding battle 37-19, while holding Lamar Wilkerson and Tucker DeVries to a combined 9-for-24 from the floor.
Few will expect the Hoosiers to win that game, making their ensuing matchup against Minnesota a clear-cut must-win game. The Gophers are just 13-15 on the year, but have won two of their last three games and just pushed No. 3 Michigan to the brink in a 10-point loss on the road. They could very well present Indiana with a similar trap game.
Indiana ends the regular season at Ohio State, which would be a Quad 1 win if Darian DeVries' team can get the job done on the road. History is certainly against them, and the Buckeyes are in a similar situation as another fringe bubble team, putting a lot on the line for both teams.
Regardless of what Indiana does down the stretch of the regular season, it could still need another momentous victory in the Big Ten Tournament to seal its March Madness case. Only two teams earned at-large bids with fewer than 20 wins in the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
