Illinois basketball head coach Brad Underwood matched school history ahead of the NCAA Tournament. He's the first Illini head coach since Lou Henson to lead six straight March Madness appearances. Illinois even avoided a nightmare scenario and landed in one of the more winnable regionals before facing Penn.
But why is the upset alert alarm sounding off for the Illini and Underwood in this South Regional showdown?
Penn hasn't won a tournament game since 1993-1994 under Fran Dunphy. The Quakers' streak of first round exits is one of the longest among this season's tournament representatives.
Illinois may be the overwhelming 23.5-point favorite here per FanDuel Sportsbook. But there are multiple reasons why Underwood and company are on high alert before Thursday.
Old, familiar foe is coaching against Illinois
This contest inside the Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, S.C., feels like a Big Ten battle.
That's because an old familiar foe of Underwood and Illinois is on the other side: Penn head coach Fran McCaffery.
The same McCaffery who once led Iowa in the Big Ten from 2010 to 2025. His Hawkeye teams often became thorns on the side of the Illini.
But the now Quakers head coach likely will be hellbent on ending his personal losing streak against Underwood and company. He hasn't defeated the Illini since Feb. 4, 2023 which was an 81-79 Iowa win.
Penn gains the luxury of having a coach who knows its opponent well before tipoff. McCaffery's presence isn't the only advantage the Ivy League champs have, though.
Penn can exploit these Illinois flaws
The Quakers are facing one of the more up-and-down defenses in this tournament.
Illinois surrendered 70 or more points in 15 games this season. That includes allowing 90 or more four times. Underwood's teams struggle with stopping penetration and bottling perimeter shooting.
The latter part Penn can test through sharpshooter TJ Power. The former Duke and Virginia forward hit pre-March Madness history in beating Yale: Becoming the third NCAA Division-I player to deliver a 40-point, 10-rebound game with a conference title on the line. Power lit up Yale for 44 points to seal Penn's No. 14 seed.
Penn will attack with more than Power's shooting touch, though. The Big Ten representative struggles in transition defense too. McCaffery became known for going after teams in the fast break. His system aims to create more 2-on-1 advantages toward the hoop.
Perimeter play is one more Penn strength. AJ Levine spearheads this aspect by leading in steals and assists. Lead scorer Ethan Roberts is returning in time from a concussion too, further strengthening the Quakers.
Finally, Illinois is shaky at the free throw line. This flaw noticeably surfaces in big games, which dooms the Illini. McCaffery will try to get Illinois on the white stripe early and then late in the game to test them.
Can Illinois avoid upset?
Talent wise, Illinois can overwhelm the mid-major foe here.
The Illini has three double-digit scoring options featuring a healthier Keaton Wagler (scored 19 in the loss to Wisconsin). David Mirkovic and Andrej Stojakovic are two more high-volume scorers as swingman forwards.
Yet this matchup doesn't promise a 20-point rout for the Illini. While Penn hasn't surpassed the first round in 32 years, Underwood is yet to experience the Sweet 16. The Quakers will attempt to shred some brackets on Thursday.
