Auburn continues its SEC schedule with a second straight road game in Week 5, this time facing Texas A&M. Auburn is coming off a loss to Oklahoma, while Texas A&M enjoyed a bye week. Now the SEC opponents will collide on Saturday, and we have bold predictions to be made.
Auburn comes into the game sitting at 3-1, but 0-1 in SEC play. After a slow start against Baylor on the road in Week 1, Auburn came back and won the game 38-24. The next two weeks would be much easier, with wins over Ball State and South Alabama. Last week, Auburn hit the road to face Oklahoma. Auburn was in the game most of the way, but missed calls by referees, combined with Oklahoma sacking Jackson Arnold nine times, left Auburn with a 24-17 loss.
Meanwhile, Texas A&M is 3-0 on the year and has not played an SEC game. After opening with wins over UTSA and Utah State, the Aggies hit the road to face Notre Dame. Notre Dame was strong early, taking a 17-7 lead early in the second quarter. Still, Texas A&M would fight back to have a four-point lead going into the halftime break. The game was tied in the fourth quarter, when Jeremiyah Love scored, but a botched extra point attempt made it just a six-point game. With 13 seconds left, Marcel Reed threw a touchdown pass to Nate Boerkircher, and Texas A&M took the 41-40 victory over Notre Dame.
The Texas A&M and Auburn game went to four overtimes last year, with Auburn taking the win. Now, the Aggies look for revenge.
The Texas A&M pass rush causes issues
Much has been made about the fact that Arnold was sacked nine times against Oklahoma, including one for a safety. Overall, He has been sacked 15 times this year for a loss of 87 yards. Auburn has not protected Arnold well this year. He gets sacked on 13.71% of his drop-backs, ranking 133rd in the nation this year.
Meanwhile, while the pass defense for Texas A&M has not been amazing, they get home to the quarterback 8.49% of the time when the quarterback drops back to pass. That is ranked 23rd in the nation.
This is led by Cashius Howell, a defensive end for the Aggies. He has three sacks already this year and has been in the backfield consistently. Howell is coming off a slight down year in 2024 with just four sacks, but one did come against Auburn. Still, in 2023, he racked up 9.5 sacks, including three multi-sack games. Howell will have another multi-sack game in this one, as he gets to Arnold at least twice and causes chaos in the backfield.
Jackson Arnold has a phenomenal day
Jackson Arnold may have been hit a lot by Oklahoma, but he still had a solid day. He completed 21 of 32 passes for 220 yards and a touchdown. He also managed to lose just 11 yards rushing, which includes the nine sacks he took. Overall on the year, Arnold has completed 69 of 101 passes for 721 yards and five touchdowns. He also has 181 yards rushing with four scores.
Meanwhile, the Texas A&M passing defense has not been the best. The team allows 211.7 yards per game through the air, 51st in the nation. They do not force many interceptions, sitting 112th in the nation in interception rate.
The Aggies may also be without Scooby Williams. Williams has an interception this year, while also helping against the run from his linebacker position. He is solid against tight ends and works well in zone coverage against crossing receivers. He can also work well when the defense needs a quarterback spy, which they will in this one. Auburn has plenty of options to throw the ball to as well. Cam Coleman has 237 yards and two scores, while Eric Singleton Jr. has 209 yards and two scores. Moreover, four different tight ends have brought in receptions this year. Losing Williams for this game will hurt the pass defense and allow Arnold to put up great numbers.
Marcel Reed puts Texas A&M on his back
While Arnold is going to have a solid day, the story of the day is going to be Reed. Reed has completed 58 of 99 passes on the year for 869 yards and nine touchdowns. Further, he has thrown just one interception. The quarterback has also been protected well, being sacked just once this year. Like Arnold, he is also solid on the ground, running for 142 yards and a score this season.
The best part of the Auburn pass defense has been the pass rush, sitting 20th in the nation in sack percentage. Still, against this offensive line of the Aggies, they will have trouble getting to the quarterback in this one.
Auburn is 116th in the nation in interception percentage, while also 68th in the nation in opponent passing yards per game. With Reed having ample time to work in the pocket, he is going to have a big day agaisnt Auburn, as Texas A&M takes the win.
