Of the many marquee matchups in Week 4 of the 2025 college football season, few have more storylines than the massive contest in Norman between Auburn and Oklahoma. In addition to the stakes of the top-25 clash, all eyes will be on Tigers quarterback Jackson Arnold in his return to his former school. Ahead of the Oklahoma-Auburn Week 4 college football matchup, we will be making our Jackson Arnold predictions.
Arnold, a former five-star recruit, spent his first two years with Brent Venables and Oklahoma. After spending his freshman year sitting behind Dillon Gabriel, Arnold was given his shot in 2024. Unfortunately, the fit could not have been worse for either side, prompting Arnold to leave the program.
As one of the top quarterbacks in the 2024-2025 college football transfer portal, Arnold quickly committed to Auburn. He believed the scheme fit would be better, with Hugh Freeze implementing more RPO sets and downfield opportunities. So far, all has gone well for the Tigers and their new quarterback.
Shortly after Arnold left, Oklahoma quickly found a suitable replacement. Venables retained Michael Hawkins Jr., who split time with Arnold in 2024, but made a splash in the transfer portal by landing top quarterback John Mateer. Mateer opted to follow offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle, whom Venables hired to replace Seth Littrell.
Although there was no bad blood fueling Oklahoma and Arnold's divorce, the situation still created an emotional Week 4 matchup. By committing to Auburn, the junior quarterback was undoubtedly aware that he would be returning to Norman in 2025 and facing his former team.
Since the split, both sides have been complimentary of the other. Regardless, neither wants to leave Gaylord Memorial Stadium with a loss. With everything on the line, here are our Week 4 Jackson Arnold predictions for the crucial Oklahoma-Auburn matchup.
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Jackson Arnold will throw five touchdowns against Oklahoma
Arnold's career high is four touchdowns, but it would only make sense for him to eclipse that mark against his former team. No coach knows Arnold better than Venables, but at the same time, few players have had more time to prepare for Oklahoma's notoriously stingy defense than Arnold.
Under Venables, Oklahoma has been known for its creative and confusing pressure-based schemes. Arnold has had two full years to practice against that defense ahead of this matchup, which he unquestionably has had circled for months.
Oklahoma is potentially the toughest defense Arnold will face all season. The Sooners are allowing just 84.7 passing yards per game through three weeks, the fewest in the SEC by a mile.
However, this iteration of Venables' defense has yet to be truly tested. They have only faced one formidable opponent, Michigan, which started an 18-year-old rookie quarterback making his road debut in prime time. At this stage of his career, Arnold is a proven veteran who is very familiar with the environment at the Gaylord Memorial Stadium.
Arnold committed to Auburn from the college football transfer portal because he liked Freeze's aggressive offensive approach. The Tigers are going to come out swinging in this matchup, and Arnold is going to show out.
Jackson Arnold eclipses 100 rushing yards
Whenever Arnold is at his best, he is running the football. The Texan is a prolific passer under the right circumstances, but he is a natural-born runner who constantly wants to be in the open field.
Oklahoma is going to get after him, but Arnold thrives under that pressure. In Auburn's Week 1 matchup with Baylor, Arnold consistently countered pressure with his legs, racking up 137 rushing yards while taking just one sack.
The game was just his second-career 100-yard rushing game, but it was clearly a sign of things to come. Freeze has clearly given him the green light, and Arnold has settled into life in Auburn more than he ever did at Oklahoma. It has only been three games, but the junior has already displayed a level of confidence and poise that were nowhere to be seen in Norman.
As prolific as Oklahoma has been against the pass, they are just average against the run. They have particularly allowed quarterbacks to slip free for a few decent gains.
Venables will have a few tricks up his sleeve for this matchup, but Arnold should have a decent grasp on his former coach's tendencies. Oklahoma loves to bring pressure, and whenever Auburn's pocket collapses, Arnold turns into the mobile quarterback that initially made him a five-star prospect.
Auburn stuns Oklahoma with double-digit victory
Both teams enter Week 4 with identical 3-0 records, but the intangible factors all favor Oklahoma. The Sooners are 17-4 at home under Venables, and stole last season's matchup in Auburn with a chaotic ending.
Three games into the season, Oklahoma looks like a legitimate title contender. Its defense was superb against Michigan, and the offense continues to improve each week. The Sooners have yet to breach the top 10 but are clearly gaining public respect, with Mateer emerging as the Heisman Trophy betting favorite.
Auburn, however, has arguably been just as impressive. The Tigers entered the year with a lot of questions, particularly surrounding Arnold. Despite his prestige, Arnold did not meet expectations in 2024, causing many to write him off.
Freeze's Tigers entered 2025 without their top passer, rusher and receiver from 2024. Yet, Arnold led them to a gritty 38-24 win over Baylor in Week 1, followed by two double-digit victories over Ball State and South Alabama.
Oklahoma's offense might have more potential, but Auburn has looked like the more dynamic football team thus far. The Sooners are rightfully favored to win by a touchdown, but this is easily their most-proven opponent of the young season. They already have a ranked win over Michigan, but the Tigers are a much more proven, well-rounded offense at this juncture than Michigan was in Bryce Underwood's second career start.
Whether fans boo him or not, Arnold is entering Gaylord Memorial Stadium seeking vengeance. His entire 2025 season has been a “prove-it” year of sorts, with this game being the ultimate test. Arnold will not disappoint, and he will leave Norman much happier than he was in the spring.
