Arch Manning hasn’t even finished his first season as Texas Football’s full-time starter, and already his NFL draft stock is a hot topic. The hype was sky-high before opening day, but reality has hit hard in recent weeks.

On ESPN’s College GameDay, Peter Thamel revealed that the NFL isn’t viewing Manning as a 2026 draft option right now. Thamel said a poll of 25 NFL scouts and executives on the top quarterbacks for 2026 produced one clear takeaway: Manning wasn’t close to the top.

South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers led the group with eight votes. LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, Miami’s Carson Beck, Oklahoma’s John Mateer, and Penn State’s Drew Allar all followed. Manning? Just one lone vote.

That doesn’t mean he’s doomed. Thamel pointed out that Cam Ward, who went No. 1 overall in this year’s draft, also had just one vote in a similar poll the year before. The lesson: draft boards can swing quickly once a player puts together consistent tape.

Still, Thamel dropped a more surprising nugget: “Arch Manning, who a lot of people thought would be the number one pick in this draft if he came out. The NFL sentiment right now, Rece, is that Arch isn’t going to be able to go to the draft until 2027.”

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That’s a wild shift given how much hype surrounded Manning this offseason. Pundits like Pat McAfee even admitted they crowned him too early, expecting a Manning heir to dominate right away. Instead, Manning has looked more like a developing prospect than a surefire franchise quarterback.

The name value and arm talent are still there. Manning’s flashes show why he was one of the most talked-about recruits of his generation. But in terms of NFL readiness, scouts clearly want to see more polish before viewing him as a top-tier prospect.

For Texas, this isn’t the end of the world. The Longhorns get a quarterback who can grow in the system without the immediate pressure of being a one-and-done star. For Manning, it’s a chance to rewrite the narrative, the same way Ward did before his meteoric rise.

The NFL might be saying 2027, but college football seasons have a way of flipping the script fast. If Manning steadies himself and Texas wins big, scouts won’t keep him buried on draft boards for long.

For now, though, Arch Manning is living proof that hype doesn’t guarantee draft stock; performance does.