The Indianapolis Colts were the talk of the league through the first two months of the 2025 NFL season, but are now just 8-4 following their Week 13 loss to the Texans. While that record is still much better than many predicted the Daniel Jones-led team would be at this point in the preseason, their Super Bowl aspirations have quickly dwindled over the last month.
The Colts are still favored to win the AFC South, but the same team that was once running away with the division is now suddenly in a dogfight. Indianapolis' 1-3 lull over the last month has coincided with the Jacksonville Jaguars' three-game win streak and the Houston Texans' four-game win streak.
The Jaguars are now tied with the Colts at the top of the division, with the Texans just one game back. Houston now owns the tiebreaker over Indianapolis, which is preparing for its first matchup with Jacksonville in Week 14.
The alert level is high, but the Colts' recent drought is not the end of the world. Their 29.8 points per game still lead the league, and they still rank in the top five in total yards per game, touchdown rate, first downs and fewest punts per game.
However, the team that has shown up in the last four games is clearly not the same unit that dominated the league over the first two months of the season. Indianapolis has not gotten run out of the water in any of its losses, but its aura of invincibility is long gone, and Jones doubters are now back in full force.
Colts should be worried about Sauce Gardner
The Colts' offense remains statistically the best in the league, but its recent shortcomings are a big red flag. More on that later.
For now, the team's biggest concern is on the other side of the ball. Specifically, the Colts' Super Bowl aspirations will entirely hinge on Sauce Gardner's long-term availability after the star cornerback left the Week 13 loss with a seemingly serious leg injury.
The team has since reported that Gardner suffered a calf strain, which was great news after many feared that he had suffered a torn Achilles. The early word is that Gardner will avoid injured reserve, but that does not necessarily mean a return is imminent.
Although the Colts are reporting a calf injury, Gardner's Achilles tendon is not in the clear. The calf and Achilles are directly connected, often giving athletes issues on both fronts. Fans might recall Christian McCaffrey essentially missing the entire 2024 campaign for a similar issue despite avoiding a major injury.
Even if Gardner returns sooner rather than later, his impending absence spells trouble for the Colts, both in the short term and the long term. Charvarius Ward's return coinciding with Gardner's injury softens the blow. Still, the latter now joins star defensive tackle DeForest Buckner on the sidelines, leaving Lou Anarumo without his two best defenders for the time being.
The Colts' secondary has been an issue all season, which is why they went all-in on Gardner in the first place. Indianapolis' defense allows the third-highest pass rate post-Week 13, resulting in the fifth-highest passing yards per game.
The Colts are now in a position to potentially fight for a championship with Mekhi Blackmon and Johnathan Edwards at cornerback instead of Gardner, which changes everything.
Daniel Jones' struggles are concerning
Sauce Gardner's injury is the No. 1 concern, but it is a factor out of the Colts' control. Daniel Jones' recent play, however, is an issue that might be even more destructive.
After flaming out with the New York Giants, Jones seemed like the latest quarterback to revive his career with a new team. He famously led the Colts to a historic start out of the gate and was the catalyst behind their 7-1 start. Jones was arguably the best quarterback in the league in September and October, thrusting him into the MVP conversation.t
Everything has flipped on its head since Week 9, when Jones threw three interceptions in a 27-20 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. His numbers nearly fell off a cliff in November, in which he notched just six touchdowns to 11 turnovers on a subpar 61.9 completion percentage.
Even the best go through their rough patches, but given Jones' history, his November is alarming. Turnovers were his downfall in New York, and he averaged a horrendous 2.75 giveaways in the month.
Star running back Jonathan Taylor's performances have also dipped over the last month. Taylor carried the Colts to a 31-25 win over the Atlanta Falcons in Week 10, but he has also endured his two worst games of the year in the last four weeks.
The Colts are in the middle of a rough stretch, but their schedule only gets more challenging down the stretch of the regular season. Indianapolis can only hope that the best version of Jones shows up in December, but his pattern of disappointing outings against the best defenses in the league is becoming a concerning trend.
