The Tampa Bay Buccaneers arrive at Ford Field on Monday night as 4.5-point underdogs, but their status as road dogs shouldn't intimidate anyone who's watched Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield operate in 2025. At 5-1 and sitting atop the NFC standings, the Buccaneers possess the firepower to pull off an upset against the 4-2 Detroit Lions in what promises to be a pivotal NFC showdown. Two critical X-factors could be the difference between a statement victory and a missed opportunity: Mayfield's elite efficiency under the primetime lights and the potential return of future Hall of Famer Mike Evans from a three-game absence.
Baker Mayfield: Primetime Maestro Leading the NFC's Best
Baker Mayfield has transformed himself into one of the NFL's most clutch quarterbacks, and his 2025 campaign represents the apex of his career resurgence. Through six games, Mayfield has compiled 1,539 passing yards, 12 touchdowns, and just one interception while posting a sterling 108.5 passer rating that ranks among the league's elite. Perhaps most impressively, he's completed 66.2% of his passes despite missing three of his top receivers for significant stretches.
Mayfield's mastery in high-leverage situations makes him particularly dangerous on Monday Night Football. In 2025, he boasts a 5-1 record in primetime games, averaging 256.5 passing yards per contest with 12 touchdowns against only one interception. His two most recent performances showcase exactly why Detroit's defense should be concerned. In Week 5 against Seattle, Mayfield torched the Seahawks for 379 yards and two touchdowns while completing an absurd 87.9% of his passes en route to a 134.7 passer rating. One week later against San Francisco, he followed up with 256 yards, two more scores, and a 139.0 rating while completing 73.9% of his attempts.
What makes Mayfield so dangerous against Detroit is his ability to exploit linebacker coverage—precisely the weakness Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs exposed in Week 6. Mahomes completed 13 of 17 attempts for 165 yards and a touchdown when targeting Lions linebackers Jack Campbell and Alex Anzalone, with Travis Kelce feasting on mismatches to the tune of six catches for 78 yards. Campbell surrendered five receptions for 66 yards in that contest, while Anzalone gave up six catches for 56 yards. The Chiefs essentially provided a blueprint for attacking Detroit's defense by keeping the Lions in base packages and targeting linebackers in coverage.
Mayfield has the weapons and tactical acumen to replicate that approach. Even without several key offensive contributors, he's demonstrated an uncanny ability to find open receivers and make defenses pay for coverage breakdowns. His fourth-quarter performance has been particularly impressive, completing 64.3% of passes for 426 yards and two touchdowns in the final frame this season. Against a Lions defense that has allowed the seventh-most passing yards in the league while ranking 25th in pass defense, Mayfield should have ample opportunities to carve up Detroit's secondary and exploit those vulnerable linebackers.
Mike Evans: The Game-Changer Returns
Bucs hopeful Mike Evans (hamstring) returns to practice this week.
— Underdog NFL (@UnderdogNFL) October 13, 2025
The potential return of Mike Evans could be the difference between a competitive game and a Buccaneers upset. After missing three games with a hamstring strain suffered in Week 3 against the New York Jets, Evans is expected to practice this week with a strong possibility of suiting up Monday night. Head coach Todd Bowles expressed optimism about Evans' availability, noting the star receiver is eager to avoid missing a fourth consecutive game.
Evans' return carries massive implications beyond simply adding another weapon to Tampa Bay's arsenal. The 31-year-old future Hall of Famer is chasing history, currently sitting on just 140 receiving yards through three games as he pursues an 11th consecutive 1,000-yard season—a streak he shares with Jerry Rice. To reach 1,000 yards this season, Evans needs 860 yards over the final 11 games, a challenging but achievable target given the injuries to other Buccaneers receivers that should funnel more targets his direction.
More importantly for Monday's matchup, Evans provides exactly the type of red-zone threat that can tilt close games. Throughout his career, he's been one of the NFL's most reliable touchdown producers, and his presence immediately transforms Tampa Bay's offense in scoring situations. The Lions have struggled defending elite passing attacks, ranking 14th in passing yards allowed and surrendering the sixth-most passing touchdowns in the league. Against a secondary that's been picked apart by quality quarterbacks, Evans gives Mayfield a go-to option who can win contested catches and create separation against man coverage.
Even if Evans isn't at 100%, his mere presence on the field forces Detroit to allocate defensive resources differently. The Lions will have to account for Evans' positioning, which creates more favorable matchups for Tampa Bay's other receivers. With rookie sensation Emeka Egbuka sidelined due to his own hamstring injury suffered in Week 6, and Chris Godwin unlikely to play, Evans' return couldn't be more timely. Before his injury, Egbuka had emerged as the Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite with 445 yards and five touchdowns through five games, but his absence leaves a massive void that only Evans can fill.
The Perfect Storm for an Upset
The convergence of Mayfield's elite play and Evans' potential return creates the perfect conditions for Tampa Bay to shock Detroit on its home turf. The Lions enter Monday night vulnerable after watching the Chiefs methodically dissect their defense with quick passes and linebacker exploitation. Kansas City's 30-17 victory exposed fundamental flaws in Detroit's defensive structure that can't be fixed in one week, particularly with the Lions dealing with their own injury concerns in the secondary.
Detroit's pass defense ranks 27th in the league, and the team has surrendered 25.2 points per game, ranking 24th in opponent points per game. Those numbers suggest a defense that can be had by a precision passer with reliable targets—exactly what Tampa Bay brings to the table. Mayfield has posted passer ratings above 134.0 in consecutive weeks, demonstrating the kind of scorching form that overwhelms defenses.
The Buccaneers also carry momentum that extends beyond statistics. They've won five straight games to start 5-1, with Mayfield authoring comeback victories and late-game heroics that have defined their season. Four of their five wins have come by eight points or fewer, showcasing their ability to execute in crunch time. Against a Lions team coming off an embarrassing home loss to Kansas City, Tampa Bay has the opportunity to deliver another blow to Detroit's Super Bowl aspirations.
The betting markets reflect the competitiveness of this matchup, with the over/under set at 52.5 points—suggesting oddsmakers expect a high-scoring affair. That environment favors the Buccaneers, who have seen the over hit in four of their last five games and have demonstrated the offensive firepower to keep pace with any team. With Mayfield firing on all cylinders and Evans potentially back in the fold, Tampa Bay possesses the exact combination of precision passing and red-zone efficiency to outscore Detroit in a Monday night shootout.
The narrative surrounding this game may focus on Detroit's home-field advantage and the Lions' offensive weapons, but the Buccaneers hold the trump cards. Mayfield's career-best form gives them an elite quarterback playing at an MVP level, while Evans' return provides the missing piece to an offense that's already averaging 27.5 points per game. Against a Detroit defense that the Chiefs just exposed and a secondary that ranks among the league's worst, Tampa Bay has all the ingredients for a signature road upset that solidifies their status as legitimate NFC contenders.
