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The Toronto Maple Leafs drafted Nick Robertson with the 53rd pick of the 2019 draft. Now, Robertson is a restricted free agent. The Maple Leafs can re-sign Robertson, or they could choose to sign and trade him this NHL offseason. We look at the reasons why the Maple Leafs should not trade Robertson this offseason.
Robertson is coming off a solid season, playing mostly on the third line. He would play in 69 games this year, scoring 15 goals and adding seven assists. He also saw his time on the ice go up this year to 12 minutes per game. Still, Robertson played in just three playoff games, often sitting as a healthy scratch. It was a similar situation that occurred the previous season that led Robertson to request a trade from Toronto.
Last year, Robertson signed a one-year deal with a small raise. This year, he is once again a restricted free agent. Still, there are multiple reasons that the Maple Leafs need to bring back Robertson this NHL offseason.
The Maple Leafs have cap problems
The Maple Leafs are projected to have just $27 million in cap space this offseason, according to Cap Wages. Still, the Maple Leafs have multiple pending free agents. This starts with forwards Mitch Marner and John Tavares, both of whom played on the top two lines this year. They are also both due for a large payday. Marner is expected to bring in close to $13 million, while Tavares is expected to bring in close to $8 million. Further, Matthew Knies and Pontus Holmberg are both restricted free agents this year.
Most likely, the Maple Leafs cannot bring back all four of those players. That means they have holes to fill in their lineup that need to be done on the cheap. Robertson could be a perfect answer for that. He took a very modest raise last year when he re-signed and could do the same this year. His current projection is to be worth $1.5 million, which would give the Maple Leafs a young, solid player for a lot less than other options.
Nick Robertson is young and improving
While Robertson has played in 156 games in his NHL career, he is still young. He will turn 24 at the start of this upcoming season. First, he has adjusted his play style. Robertson needed to adjust how he played to fit in the coaching system of Craig Berube. Berube likes more physical play from their forwards on the third and fourth lines. Robertson was not that type of player, but he has changed his style of play heavily.
In the 2023-24 season, Robertson had 24 blocked shots and 34 hits. This past year, he had 33 blocked shots and 79 hits. That is an improvement of one hit every other game. With the Maple Leafs wanting more physical play on their lower lines, Robertson has shown he is willing to be that type of player. If he can meld that with the player who is capable of scoring over 20 goals per season, Robertson will be highly valuable. Further, there is precedent for the Maple Leafs having slightly later bloomers. Bobby McMann is the most recent example, taking a major step forward this past year while also turning 28.
A move would not yield enough right now
The Maple Leafs do not have a lot of draft capital overall. They do not have a first-round pick in any of the next three seasons. Further, this year they have the Panthers' second-round pick, and then, either the Avalanche or Oilers third, before not having a fourth-round pick. They also do not have a second-round pick next year either. If the Maple Leafs give him an offer sheet as a restricted free agent, they would be entitled to compensation if he moves on. So the Maple Leafs can go that route, or sign and trade Robertson.
Still, they will not be getting a lot of value back for Robertson. A player has to sign for over $1.54 million AAV for there to be any sort of draft pick compensation returning for the team that lost the player. First, the lowest level of compensation is a third-round pick. With Robertson projected to make less than $1.54 million AAV, it is a safe assumption that the max Robertson could be traded for is a third-round pick.
Still, with Robertson expected to make less than the $1.54 million, the Maple Leafs would not be entitled to compensation if Robertson is signed away. Toronto could then want to sign and trade Robertson. Trading him might grab a fourth or fifth-round pick, which is not a ton of value. Further, it does not save a lot of cap space. Instead, the Maple Leafs could re-sign Robertson and let him continue developing. They could then shop him at the trade deadline if they are still interested in moving on, and possibly get more in return for Robertson.
