With the NBA regular season winding down, teams on the playoff bubble are fighting just to make it to the dance. The Western Conference, being as tight as it is, features many of these teams, and the New Orleans Pelicans are one of them.
New Orleans started out the season very well, jumping out to an 18-8 record and looking like one of the conference's best teams. It's been tough sledding for the Pelicans since then, though, as they now sit at 36-37. This leaves them in a four-way tie with the Dallas Mavericks, Los Angeles Lakers and Oklahoma City Thunder for the eight-seed, and based on tiebreakers, they are currently in 10th, barely clinging to the final spot in the Play-In Tournament.
As they showed at the beginning of the season, the Pelicans are a very strong team when at full strength. The problem is that they've rarely been at full strength this season. Zion Williamson has played in only 29 games, including none since Jan. 2, while Brandon Ingram has only played in 36. Williamson and Ingram, New Orleans' two leaders in points per game, have only played 12 games together all season, per Statmuse.
If the Pelicans stayed healthy, then they might be competing for the top seed in the conference. But they didn't, and now they're fighting for their postseason lives. It's unfortunate, but that's the hand some teams are dealt.
Still, New Orleans has a chance to make the playoffs, and that's what truly matters. That begs the question, though, what would be the Pelicans' dream scenario if they do make it in? Let's answer that question, for both the Play-In Tournament and the playoffs themselves.
Pelicans' dream seeding scenario, matchup for 2023 NBA Play-In Tournament
As previously mentioned, New Orleans currently occupies the 10th seed in the West with a 36-37 record. However, the West is so close this season that not only are the Pelicans in a four-way tie for eighth, but they're also only 2.5 games behind the Phoenix Suns for fourth. The final weeks of the regular season will play a huge part in where the Pelicans and others ultimately finish.
According to Playoffstatus.com, New Orleans has a 48% chance to miss the Play-In Tournament entirely, obviously not ideal. They have a 14% chance to finish 10th, an 11% chance to finish ninth and a 9% chance to finish eighth. They do have smaller chances to finish higher, but they do not control their destiny for those seeds.
Really, as long as they finish eighth, they should be alright. Yes, it would be nice to have home-court advantage in the Play-In Tournament, or even avoid it entirely. However, the main goal should be to avoid having to play two games in the Play-In Tournament.
There are plenty of teams that New Orleans could play in the Play-In Tournament, but the one they would likely be happiest to see is Oklahoma City. The Pelicans have taken three of four games against the Thunder, including two in Oklahoma City.
Granted, this does come with the asterisk of those wins all coming by four points or less, while the Thunder's win came by 14 in New Orleans. However, their record against Oklahoma City is much better than their other potential opponents. Plus, the Thunder don't have the same star power or experience as other opponents like the Lakers or Mavericks.
Pelicans' dream matchup for 2023 NBA Playoffs
Assuming that Pelicans-Thunder game is the 7-8 matchup, the winner will get the second seed in the first round. The Grizzlies and Kings both have a realistic chance to finish there, but the Nuggets also have an outside shot as well if they finish poorly. Of those three teams, the Pelicans would absolutely want to play the Kings most.
New Orleans and Sacramento have only met twice this season, with each team winning once. The Pelicans thumped the Kings 136-104 at home on Feb. 5, while the Kings returned the favor with a 123-108 win on their home court on Mar. 6. The third and final matchup of the regular season will take place in New Orleans on Apr. 4.
Considering the Pelicans have outscored the Kings by 21 points across their two matchups, it's fair to say they're pretty comfortable with the matchup. That third game will decide a lot, but the Pelicans would still stand a better chance against the Kings than they would the Nuggets or Grizzlies, as they are 1-2 against each of them. Sacramento is also a more inexperienced team than Memphis or Denver, cementing it as the easier matchup.
Granted, this matchup in a seven-game series would still likely be an uphill battle for New Orleans. However, this path offers the Pelicans the best chance at making it out of the first round. If they can rediscover their early-season form, then maybe they can make some noise this postseason.
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