The New Orleans Pelicans started this season with a revamped coaching staff and a clear message to the locker room: look to take more 3-pointers. Now in his third year in charge, Willie Green has to match that strategy with a new directive coaching-wise: play more shooters or risk getting run out of the gym, individually as a coach and collectively as a team. The squandered double-digit leads and blowout losses aren't exactly being stacked up weekly, but there are enough of both scattered throughout the schedule for the organization to be concerned.
Boston Celtics broadcaster Brian Scalabrine ridiculed Green's Pelicans lineups recently. It wound up being the third consecutive loss for New Orleans, partly due to a lineup that received little respect from Boston's defenders. Towards the end of each half Green ran out Herb Jones, Dyson Daniels, and Larry Nance Jr. to support Brandon Ingram and Trey Murphy.
Simply put, there are no excuses for this edition of the Pelicans to send out a unit without multiple bona fide, bombs-away snipers on the court. Zion Williamson and Ingram need some space work and the front office has accumulated too much shooting talent. Not even in garbage time should New Orleans be playing without Jordan Hawkins and Matt Ryan running the wings.
Williamson and Ingram can run the offense without the other former All-Star on the court. They both need viable options to break down collapsing, over-helping defenses, however. Sure Larry Nance Jr., Herb Jones, Naji Marshall, and Jose Alvarado are shooting north of 37 percent from beyond the arc. As Boston's Joe Mazzulla detailed after the final buzzer, opposing teams are still sticking with a scouting report that sags off of those role players. Green's Pelicans are not panicking but the NBA's fifth-youngest head coach is under some pressure to find solutions sooner rather than later.
Williamson, Ingram lack space to operate at All-Star levels
The problem in New Orleans is inconsistency and what Green called a “congested” offense a few weeks ago. More shooters on the floor is the needed elixir. This applies to the starting lineup and during clutch time minutes. Jonas Valanciunas is being held back in favor of Larry Nance Jr. after halftime but that has not solved any spacing or the Pelicans second-half energy issues.
Freedom in discipline is a philosophy currently preached by Navy Seal Jocko Willink and Eliud Kipchoge, the world's newest marathon record holder. Both are echoing German academic Erich Fromm. Green can apply the principle by setting some rotational rules for the rest of the season. Breaking them too often would possibly mean not being invited back for a fourth, especially if the Pelicans fail to get out of the first round.
Step one is admitting there are no excuses for Green going with no-shooter lineups. Consistent stretches having none on the court is a fireable offense with Matt Ryan back and Hawkins needing developmental time. Sending out only one, McCollum or Murphy, is borderline negligent unless it's a unique matchup situation. Two or more at all times is preferred, especially during Williamson's minutes. Three or more can be accommodated, as long as a sometimes reluctant Ingram is firing away with any accuracy.
Furthermore, Green's failure to find Williamson and Murphy more time together is a bit worrisome at this point. They've played together for just 216 minutes over 18 games. There are some nights they do not touch the floor together as it's Murphy subbing in for Williamson. Murphy, the team's most respected long-range threat, spends the first six minutes of each half watching from the sidelines before giving Williamson a rest.
Against Boston, Green went with a mass substitution at the 6:05 mark of the second quarter. Scalabrine's comments came soon after. Williamson replaced Murphy with 90 seconds remaining in the half. The duo had approximately 10 overlapping minutes in a close road loss. They've played only 90 minutes together over the last 15 games. Sure, some nights at least one was out with an injury but there has been ample opportunity to get them more time together.
Green's strict pairing of minutes is a gamble unlikely to pay off in the long run. The rotational patterns are too predictable and the New Orleans has been a step slow on in-game adjustments all season. It's both how and why they've blown 16 double-digit leads. The Pelicans are seven games behind first place, so those losses to conference rivals have been crippling to any hopes of having home-court advantage in a playoff series. Win just half of those 16 games and New Orleans would be looking at home-court throughout the postseason.
Pelicans cannot outshoot the Law of Averages
Again, other coaches have caught on to Green's usual gimmicks. Boston Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla was not worried about the Pelicans starting 5-7 from 3-point range and finishing the half above 40 percent accuracy. No, Mazzulla knew the math and rotational adjustments were on the home team's side.
“Classic law of averages,” quipped Mazzulla mid-question. “…you know why they were up by so much in the first half? Because the scout went exactly according to plan. All of the guys that we wanted to shoot threes made them all. So (the Pelicans) were five of seven and four of them were from guys that shoot less than 39 percent from three.”
The Celtics did not deviate from their initial plan either.
“It's not like we were ignoring them leaving them open,” Mazzulla explained after the win. “One time we went to go help on a Zion post-up and there was a kick-out. Tatum had active hands and he recovered back to contest it, they just made it.”
“Then the one across from our bench, I think it was in semi-transition or was another help situation, but we closed out. That's two of them,” continued Mazzulla. “Larry Nance Jr. made a corner one because we were concerned with either Ingram or McCollum. Right, so that's three. Ingram is shooting 28 percent, and he hit one. That's four. There was one more but five of seven does not always mean a bad five of seven.”
The now fully healthy Pelicans (26-21) are again mired in the NBA Play-In Tournament melee. The top four seeds are starting to create some separation from the pack. New Orleans currently sits in seventh and it looks to be a seven-team royal rumble for the fifth and sixth seeds out West.
Green has an affinity for going all-in on defense-first lineups in a league that's tilted to offensive-minded All-Stars. When All-NBA talents get going, there really is no stopping them. No lead is safe, scrappy squads just have to keep pressing and shooting for 48 minutes. It may be a football but New Orleans sports fans have seen this type of team before. The Saints' Jim Mora was notorious for giving up leads because of a tendency to lean on a ‘prevent' defense. Mora called off the famous Dome Patrol and squandered Bobby Hebert's best years.
Fast forward about three decades and a 32-year-old McCollum is having the best season of his 11-year career by fully buying into the “More 3s” mantra. The 26-year-old Ingram has been a bit more reluctant and far more inconsistent in attempts. Williamson (23) is still working on making teams pay from beyond the arc but the Duke alum cashes paychecks by playing into bully-ball, point guard-styled strengths.
It's Green's job to make adjustments and get more offensive firepower around them so New Orleans does not have to worry about any one-off elimination games. This unproven squad needs that time to rest and scout up on the opposition. Going by Mazzulla's breakdown, the book is already out on the Pelicans.
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