The New Orleans Pelicans, after weeks of such strong play, faltered when it mattered most. Instead of capitalizing on the Minnesota Timberwolves' self-destruction, the Pelicans instead imploded en route to a 113-108 defeat. And now, they find themselves in a win or go home situation in the 2023 NBA Play-In Tournament against the nascent Oklahoma City Thunder.
While the Pelicans should still remain favorites for that contest given how much more talent there is on their roster from top to bottom than the Thunder, anything can happen in a single-elimination game. New Orleans should have the edge in experience, since the members of their core that ended up making the playoffs last season from the play-in tournament are still on the roster. However, the Thunder will be playing with house money on Wednesday, given how little fanfare they attracted to begin the year.
Thus, it goes without saying that Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum will need every bit of help they can get so that their season won't yet meet its premature end. Sure, those two will still dictate just how far the Pelicans will go, especially with Zion Williamson on the mend, but as fans saw this past Sunday, a cold night from one of those players (McCollum wasn't on point against the Timberwolves) could lead to defeat.
So who will the Pelicans need to step up the most with their season, which they began as one of the best teams in the Western Conference, on the line?
Here is the Pelicans' biggest X-factor in their 9/10 matchup against the Thunder in the 2023 NBA Play-In Tournament — and it isn't Herb Jones.
Pelicans' biggest X-factor vs. Thunder: Jonas Valanciunas
When talking about X-factors for the Pelicans, one player immediately comes to mind: Herb Jones. Jones, a second round pick for the Pelicans in 2021, has done nothing but impress in his short stint in the league, as his incredible reading of the game on the defensive end of the floor immediately allowed him to earn minutes on their rotation, eventually cementing his place in their starting lineup.
Back in the 2022 playoffs, it was Jones (along with Jose Alvarado) that gave Chris Paul and even Devin Booker some fits as they made the 1-8 series between them and the Suns more competitive than most people thought.
However, Herb Jones' development on the offensive end has not been as rapid as his defensive ascent. As a result, there have been times where Jones' presence on the floor hamstrings the Pelicans' offense as defenders can sag off the career 33.6 percent shooter from beyond the arc.
Nevertheless, Jones' minutes are as safe as they come given that he's the Pelicans' best shot at slowing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander down. As a result, yet another Pelicans starter stands as someone who could drastically swing the outcome of the game in their favor.
This makes Jonas Valanciunas such an easy choice for this distinction. First of all, Valanciunas has all the tools in the world to help the Pelicans carve up OKC's interior defense. The Thunder allow a league-worst 46.6 rebounds a night to their opponents, with 12 of those coming on the offensive glass. Meanwhile, Valanciunas remains one of the best offensive rebounding forces in the NBA, nabbing 2.2 offensive boards per night.
A matchup against 20-year old Jaylin Williams leans heavily in Valanciunas' favor. Valanciunas is a tough cover on the block for most players, much less an inexperienced rookie with a slight frame. Ditto for Dario Saric and maybe Jeremiah Robinson-Earl.
However, Jonas Valanciunas hasn't had the most productive season against the Thunder. In fact, the Lithuanian big man has averaged just 22 minutes against them, failing to record a double-double in any of their four matchups against each other. To add, JV played in just 16 minutes in their most recent matchup (March 11) despite not really being in foul trouble.
(The Pelicans were trying to mount a comeback and used a small lineup, but it's telling how head coach Willie Green decided not to go to JV for some easy baskets.)
Valanciunas' most glaring weakness is his lack of mobility on the defensive end, which makes him a prime pick-and-roll target for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and company. The Thunder also tend to use a stretch-five for 48 minutes of action, which should force Valanciunas to cover the perimeter more often than he would like. And the Pelicans have someone coming off the bench who is better suited to guarding the perimeter than Valanciunas in Larry Nance Jr.
But the Thunder can have some troubles against versatile offensive big men (Domantas Sabonis and Anthony Davis torched the Thunder in recent outings), and Valanciunas can certainly inflict some damage if he manages to stay on the court during the play-in game.
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