Well friends, four days of March Madness are in the book, and all that remains are sixteen teams. A very sweet, and surprisingly predictable sixteen if you ask me, but sixteen teams nonetheless. Today, I'll be re-ranking the sixteen teams left in the field, and admittedly, this is an inexact science… sort of like the NET rankings! My rankings will be a combination of season-long eye test, NCAA Tournament eye test, championship feels (told ya it was inexact), and my own personal projections of what may be coming over the course of the next two weekends.
16. Clemson (#6 seed, West Region)
I've expected the Tigers to lose each of the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament, and each time I've been proven wrong, quite emphatically if I'm being honest with you. Clemson took apart a hot New Mexico Lobos squad in the 1st round, and then did the same to the Baylor Bears in the round of 32, with the final margin of victory (8 points) being slightly deceiving. The Tigers may not be the flashiest or sexiest team in the field, but with experienced senior starters like PJ Hall, Joseph Girard and Chase Hunter leading the way, it's possible that Clemson could continue to surprise myself, and others, along the way. Up next Clemson has a Sweet Sixteen date set with an Arizona Wildcats team that has had some bad tournament juju over the last few years to say the least.
15. San Diego State (#5 seed, East Region)
Perhaps this a tad disrespectful for a team that was in the National Championship Game less than one year ago — as the 5-seed in the region with the #1 overall seed in the tournament, just as they are this time around — but if I had conducted this exercise last year at this time, I probably would've been nearly as low on the Aztecs as I am this year. And if I'm going to knock Clemson for not being the flashiest or sexiest team in the field, it's only fair that I say the same about San Diego State. The Aztecs had their hands full in the opening round versus UAB, but bounced back with a dismantling of Yale in the 2nd Round. But their toughest test waits for them in the Sweet Sixteen… a week and a half earlier than it did last year.
The 2023 National Championship Game between Connecticut and San Diego State wasn't particularly close, and it was a game in which UConn shot only 43 percent from the field. That generally is the recipe to giving yourself a good chance to beat a team as talented as Connecticut was last year, and the Aztecs will need to keep UConn at or below that number this year to have a shot. They just don't have the firepower to win otherwise.
14. NC State (#11 seed, South Region)
The last true Cinderella in the field gets the bump over Clemson and San Diego State, largely because momentum is along for the ride on the broad shoulders of DJ Burns Jr. NC State has been playing win or go home games since the opening round of the ACC Tournament, and so far they've survived each of them and advanced because of it. A matchup against a high octane Marquette team, with a looking-as-healthy-as-ever Tyler Kolek, awaits in the Sweet Sixteen, but no matter what schematic issues an opponent presents at this point in the tournament, you can't discount the presence and involvement of March magic at this stage of the tournament.
13. Duke (#4 seed, South Region)
How badly do you think Jim Nantz wishes he hadn't hung up his headset just yet so he could've had the opportunity to be on the call for Duke and Houston — his alma mater — in the Sweet Sixteen. Nantz, Grant Hill, and the immortal Bill Raftery on the call. Now that's what I call March Madness. But Nantz is out of the picture, as is another springtime legend, Mike Krzyzewski, who left the Duke basketball program in the very capable hands of Jon Scheyer, a former player under Coach K who won the National Championship in his final game as a Blue Devil.
I don't doubt that Scheyer will eventually bring another National Championship back to Durham, but it seems unlikely that it'll be this year. I just don't know if Jeremy Roach, Kyle Filipowski and Tyrese Proctor are the duo that will get the job done, though in fairness, I would've said the same thing in 2010 looking at Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith, and yes, Jon Scheyer. At least Duke fans can rest easy knowing that because their team advanced further in the 2024 NCAA Tournament than the James Madison Dukes or the Duquesne Dukes, Duke supremacy has not changed possession.
12. Alabama (#4 seed, West Region)
Alabama won their opening round NCAA Tournament game versus Charleston while scoring 19 points above their season scoring average, and then in the 2nd Round versus Grand Canyon while scoring 19 points below their season scoring average. Did it help Bama's cause that Grand Canyon shot 32 percent from the field on Sunday night? Absolutely it did, but the opening weekend of the tournament still proved to me that maybe the Crimson Tide are a more formidable Final Four contender than I've given them credit for. Nate Oats' squad launches an obscene number of three-pointers, hits a high percentage of them, and they have a player in Mark Sears who is averaging 28 points, 8 rebounds and 5.5 assists in the tournament so far and is plenty capable of going on a Kemba Walker-esque run.
Bama's next test will be their toughest yet… a showdown with a North Carolina Tar Heels team that can really dial up the defense at times, but gave up 87 and 92 points respectively to a pair of SEC opponents earlier in the season, Kentucky and Tennessee.
11. Illinois (#3 seed, East Region)
On Thursday night in Boston, we'll see a matchup between an offensive powerhouse (Illinois, who has the 5th best offensive rating in the country) and a defensive juggernaut (Iowa State, who has the 2nd best defensive rating in the country). The old saying goes that defense wins championships, but it says nothing about whether offense or defense typically prevails in the Sweet Sixteen, so I'm left befuddled. What I do know is that Terrence Shannon Jr. is more than capable of being the best player on the floor on any given night, and Marcus Domask and Coleman Hawkins are pretty solid second and third banana's. Whether those three have enough juice to squeeze past an Iowa State team that can make you awfully uncomfortable, I'm not sure, but it certainly wouldn't stun me to see the Illini back in the Elite Eight for the first time since 2005, when they lost to North Carolina in the National Championship Game.
10. Tennessee (#2 seed, Midwest Region)
Rick Barnes has successfully fended off those well-documented March demons in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament, but to have to deal with those demons AND Creighton in the Sweet Sixteen feels like a little too much for the oft-criticized head coach. I'll admit, I had the Vols bowing out in the 2nd Round to the Texas Longhorns — Barnes' former team — in the 2nd Round, so I'm reeling now that Tennessee is in the Sweet Sixteen. Meanwhile, I had Creighton going to the Final Four, and while I don't necessarily feel great about that pick, I do expect that the Bluejays will handle their business and continue the Big East's winning streak in the tournament alive on Friday night.
9. Creighton (#3 seed, Midwest Region)
Yes, I'm taking Creighton, and yes, I'm aware that a strong case could be made that they shouldn't have even escaped their 2nd round matchup against Oregon with a win — props to Jermaine Couisnard and N'Faly Dante for a pair of awesome performances against Creighton. But against Tennessee, I trust the Bluejays top four more than I do the Vols', and I trust the Big East more than I do the SEC.
8. Gonzaga (#5 seed, Midwest Region)
I was dead wrong about the Zags, and even more wrong about McNeese State. I had Will Wade's bunch upsetting Gonzaga in the 1st Round, and then beating Samford in the 2nd Round, and then Utah State in the Sweet Sixteen. See, like I said, spectacularly wrong about McNeese. But that all started with a matchup against Gonzaga that I believed was favorable for the Cowboys. Imagine my embarrassment.
Gonzaga has used hot shooting to blow out both McNeese and Kansas, and if the Zags continue to shoot 50 percent from three-point range, they have a chance to beat any one of the fifteen teams remaining in the field. The Bulldogs have six players who score at least nine points per game, and a heady, experienced point guard in Ryan Nembhard, who has dished out 21 assists in the last two games. I'm not totally sure what to make of Gonzaga's Sweet Sixteen matchup with Purdue, but it wouldn't stun me if one of the OG Cinderella's took down Zach Edey and the Goliath that is Purdue.
7. Iowa State (#2 seed, East Region)
Things looked murky there for a bit against Washington State in the 2nd Round, and even against South Dakota State in the opening round the Cyclones didn't look quite as crisp as one would've expected. But don't forget that we're only ten days removed from watching Iowa State absolutely pick apart the Houston Cougars in the Big 12 Championship Game. TJ Otzelberger's squad has a high ceiling, but they've got a potentially tricky test in Illinois in the Sweet Sixteen, and then a potential showdown with the defending National Champions in the Elite Eight. That right there is why Iowa State isn't a smidge higher in these rankings.
The only time that the Iowa State men's basketball program made the Final Four was way back in 1944. It was so long ago that it wasn't even called the Final Four back then. I'm not saying that the Cyclones are on track to get back there on the 80 years later, but I am saying that Iowa State manages to get through both Illinois AND Connecticut on the way there, they might be the prohibitive favorite to win the National Championship at that point.
6. Marquette (#2 seed, South Region)
Marquette goes as Tyler Kolek goes, and so far through two tournament games, Tyler Kolek is looking pretty damn good, seemingly as unaffected by the oblique injury that kept him out of the Big East Tournament as Jackie Jr. was in The Sopranos when he was playing Scrabble against Meadow and didn't know that “oblique” wasn't a Spanish word. Kolek has posted double-doubles in each of Marquette's two wins, zipping cross-court passes with the opposite corner with ease almost each and every time he drives to the basket. The 2022-23 Big East Player of the Year may have led the Golden Eagles in scoring against Colorado, but he got plenty of help from Oso Ighodaro, Kameron Jones and David Joplin, who combined 42 points against the Buffaloes.
Marquette now runs into a North Carolina State team that has nothing to lose after advancing to the Sweet Sixteen when they weren't even projected to be in the field of 68 before winning the ACC Tournament. Meanwhile, Marquette has had National Championship expectations all year long. Will they carry that weight on their shoulders into Dallas when they play the Wolfpack?
5. Arizona (#2 seed, West Region)
This somehow feels too high AND too low for Arizona, which somehow reassures me that their placement on this list is actually correct. On one hand, Arizona's got Clemson in the Sweet Sixteen, and then either a date with Alabama (12th in my re-rankings) or North Carolina (4th in my re-rankings, the lowest of all four #1 seeds). They'll be playing these games in Los Angeles, where they should have a distinct home court advantage over two teams from the ACC and one from the SEC, and then if they make it to the Final Four, they'll be playing in their own backyard in Glendale. Pretty cushy path, if you ask me.
On the other hand, Arizona has had a habit of underperforming in the Big Dance even when Sean Miller was still the head coach, and Tommy Lloyd has yet to do anything that makes me feel too strongly that he's the one who can bring the Wildcats back to the Final Four for the first time since Lute Olson was coaching the team in 2001. I guess given their ranking, you can call me an Arizona optimist for now, which basically guarantees that Clemson will be advancing to the Elite Eight.
4. North Carolina (#1 seed, West Region)
This is a North Carolina team that has Final Four experience, the ACC Player of the Year in RJ Davis, good size and good coaching, and just as Arizona has, a manageable path to the Final Four. And yet, despite believing the Tar Heels were the second-best team in the country only one week ago, now I'm left feeling like maybe the Tar Heels are a little more susceptible to an upset bid than I thought prior. I don't know if it's because Michigan State gave them such a tough game for 30 minutes or four straight days of 12 consecutive hours of basketball have turned my brain to mush (very possible, by the way, and I know my girlfriend agrees), but either way, I did NOT expect to feel more strongly about Houston and Purdue than North Carolina at any point during the tournament.
3. Houston (#1 seed, South Region)
Sure, Houston is a really solid team that won the Big 12 regular season title and has proven they can win in a multitude of ways. But primarily, my belief that the Cougars could win the NCAA Tournament comes down to one silly off-court nugget that I just can't help but shake — this is the first year that the legend Jim Nantz hasn't called the Final Four since 1991, and as an alum of the University, wouldn't it be just oh-so-fitting if Nantz could go to the Final Four and enjoy a Houston championship without having to try to remain impartial on the broadcast? Maybe he'll even bust out the mouth organ and play a celebratory tune after the game. Do you think he knows “We Are The Champions,” or is he limited to “That's What Friends Are For”?
2. Purdue (#1 seed, Midwest Region)
It seems as if Purdue, much like Virginia in 2019, may have found a way to put their colossal opening round failures behind them, and fortunately for the Boilermakers, neither of their two opponents during the tournament's first weekend have found an answer for Zach Edey. Until a Purdue opponent finds an answer for Zach Edey — or until the supporting cast around Zach Edey crumbles as they did last year against Fairleigh Dickinson — the Boilermakers could very well march through this tournament.
1. Connecticut (#1 seed, East Region)
If one team has the answer for Zach Edey, it's the Connecticut Huskies and Donovan Clingan, who had a dominant 14 point, 14 rebound, 8 block performance against Northwestern on Sunday night. Cling Kong is the answer to the Zach Edey question, but what makes the Huskies truly special is how many questions they have the answers to. They can play at any pace, beat you in any style, win in any arena, and they'll let you know how much better they are than you as they do it. This is the most complete team in the country, and no, that by no means guarantees that a Final Four appearance is ahead or that a sixth National Title will soon be on its way to Storrs. But it means that in these re-rankings, UConn is still #1.
Follow Us
Subscribe