The Kansas City Chiefs enter Week 15 staring at a reality few could have imagined just months ago. Their postseason chase now depends as much on outside help as it does on their own execution. Long considered the AFC’s gold standard, Kansas City instead finds itself teetering on the playoff bubble. Advanced models paint a grim picture as Patrick Mahomes and company prepare for a season-defining matchup. With analytics narrowing the margin for error to nearly zero, the Chiefs’ playoff picture has become one of the most precarious storylines of the 2025 NFL season.
Chiefs’ 2025 season so far
The Chiefs are facing a deeply disappointing 2025 NFL season. They enter Week 15 with a subpar 6-7 record and sit outside the AFC's top 7 teams. The season has been marked by inconsistency, poor ball security (Patrick Mahomes has thrown two interceptions to three fumbles), and a recent string of poor performances. In fact, they have lost four of their last five games. The offense has struggled significantly with turnovers and efficiency. This has led to the team's lowest point totals since Mahomes became the starter. Consequently, various projection models from ESPN, The Athletic, and FTN Fantasy now give the Chiefs a mere 10% to 12% chance of making the postseason. That makes their Week 15 game against the Los Angeles Chargers practically a must-win scenario.
Here we will look at and discuss the Kansas City Chiefs playoff picture, including their updated DVOA and The Athletic, ESPN model odds before Week 15.
FTN Fantasy DVOA and odds
According to FTN Fantasy’s DVOA and DAVE models, the Chiefs’ outlook entering Week 15 is bleak and bordering on untenable. The analytics assign Kansas City just a 13.2% chance of reaching the postseason at 6–7. Again, that's a stunning fall for a team long viewed as playoff-proof. Even more damning is the Week 15 inflection point: a loss to the Chargers would crater those odds to below 1%. That would effectively end the Chiefs’ playoff chase before December is out. FTN’s models also make it clear that the AFC West is no longer in play. They note that Kansas City has practically no chance of winning the division. That reality underscores how dramatically the balance of power has shifted in a division the Chiefs once dominated with routine inevitability.
ESPN playoff odds
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and analytics reinforce that same grim assessment. They place the Chiefs’ playoff chances at only 11%, exclusively as a Wild Card hopeful. What makes ESPN’s projection especially sobering is the limited upside even in best-case scenarios. If Kansas City does make the postseason, ESPN projects them to be no higher than the 7th seed. That's largely due to unfavorable tiebreakers and congestion in the AFC Wild Card race. Even a crucial Week 15 win would move the needle only slightly. In other words, victories alone may not save the Chiefs. They also need chaos elsewhere.
The Athletic odds
The Athletic’s playoff simulator arrives at a similarly unforgiving conclusion. They place Kansas City’s current postseason probability at approximately 12%. That's largely in line with ESPN and FTN. Like the other models, The Athletic identifies Week 15 as a potential breaking point. A loss to the Chargers could mathematically eliminate them as early as Sunday. Even in winning scenarios, the simulator emphasizes how narrow Kansas City’s path has become. The Chiefs would need to win out while also receiving significant help from multiple teams across the AFC Wild Card field. That's a scenario that leaves little room for error and zero margin for bad luck.
What it all means for Kansas City
Across every major analytical model, the conclusion is unmistakable. The Chiefs are running out of time. Injuries along the offensive line have erased the structural advantages that once made Kansas City inevitable. Again, that has left Mahomes to operate under constant pressure and shrinking the playbook in critical moments. Yes, Mahomes remains capable of singular, game-breaking brilliance. That said, the margin for error is gone, and the numbers reflect it. Week 15 is no longer a stepping stone or a measuring stick. It's a genuine test of survival. A loss would all but end the Chiefs’ season. At the same time, even a win merely keeps them breathing in a Wild Card race that offers no guarantees.
Bottom line
The Chiefs’ playoff picture before Week 15 is as stark as it gets. Advanced metrics, simulations, and odds all indicate that Kansas City must win now and continue winning just to remain relevant. Even then, their fate won’t be entirely their own. Tiebreakers and external results loom large. For a franchise that has defined the AFC in January for nearly a decade, the irony is striking. The aura is fading, the safety net is gone, and one of the NFL’s most remarkable runs is now racing against the clock, with no certainty of a final chapter.
