In the NBA, patience an be a virtue. The landscape of the league is ever-changing and if there isn't all options on the table are unappealing, it's not the worst thing in the world to just sit tight and wait for something to open up. No two sentences could better sum up the John Wall situation in Houston. The Rockets are well aware that there isn't a market for Wall's services due to his exorbitant contract, but they have nothing to lose to just have him sidelined until the February trade deadline. According to veteran NBA reporter Marc Stein, Houston may finally have a suitor for Wall.
I have been advised that I should amend my previous characterization of the Lakers’ finding a Westbrook trade from outright impossible to extremely unlikely. There is at least one team out there that would take him, league sources say, if the conditions are right. That team, surprisingly, is the Houston Rockets… I’ve since learned that the Rockets — while indeed holding no interest in having Westbrook play for them again — actually would be amenable to another Westbrook-for-Wall swap if the Lakers incentivized the trade with sufficient draft compensation.
Stein makes it pretty clear that there is zero chance Russell Westbrook suits up for the Rockets again, which makes sense. It's likely Houston has two options if they were to do such a deal:
- Buy Westbrook out and allow him to join another playoff contender
- Wait until the offseason when he's an expiring and then buy him out (or attempt a trade if there's any demand)
It makes no difference to Houston whether or not Wall or Westbrook is sidelined this season. They have everything to gain in a Westbrook for Wall swap because of this. Now to be clear, Stein never specified what Houston's asking price was other than the would require significant draft compensation. The speculation has been that the Rockets are demanding the 2027 Lakers' first round pick, but there is no concrete reporting to back this up.
It's time to upgrade the idea of the Lakers trading Russell Westbrook from outright impossible to extremely unlikely.
My latest This Week In Basketball column, just out now, examines the conditions required to establish a market for a Russ deal: https://t.co/NjKy3Mvukh
— Marc Stein (@TheSteinLine) January 21, 2022
For a second, let's talk about why it's extremely unlikely that Los Angeles forks over this 2027 first for a Westbrook trade. First, because LeBron James is 37 and Anthony Davis is 28, it's fair to assume that by then James will be retired and Davis will be past his prime. The organization has done a very poor job at building up a young talent base for when these two are gone so that pick has a very high chance of being in the lottery. The last time Wall was on the floor (2020-21 season), Westbrook was the superior basketball player and he's not a cleaner enough fit next to James and Davis to justify forking over such a high valued asset.
It's fine for Houston to demand draft compensation, but this is a pretty flagrant asking price to speculate.
More likely, the Rockets are going to get second round picks back if they deal with the Lakers. Houston has a decent track record with these picks, so it's not the worst idea in the world to do the Lakers a solid and get free bets at young talent in return. But if the organization is hesitant about paying so much money up-front to buyout Westbrook, they could also ask for first round pick swaps instead. Under GM Rafael Stone, the Rockets have strategically acquired pick swaps from teams like Brooklyn and Miami. A pick swap is probably a safe middle ground between the 2027 first round pick and multiple second round picks.
Looking at what pick swaps the Lakers have to offer, 2026, 2027, and 2028 are clearly the most favorable years given how far away they are. If they aren't willing to offer any of those, Houston could also ask for either the pick swap in 2024 or 2025. In this situation, the Rockets won't know for sure which pick swap they receive because the Pelicans own the Lakers 2024 pick from the Anthony Davis trade and have the right to defer the pick rights to 2025. It's preferable for Houston to get 2025 as it adds another small layer of protection on the pick swap they owe to Oklahoma City. This would be in addition to the small layer of protection they got from getting swap rights from Brooklyn in 2025. It's farther out and likely to be better.
Ultimately, this has turned into a no-lose situation for the Rockets. If a trade materializes, they're rewarded for their patience on Wall with draft compensation. If nothing happens, that was the expected outcome anyways.
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