The New England Patriots selected running back Sony Michel in the first-round (31st overall) of the 2018 NFL Draft.
He impressed mightily in his first year, picking up 931 yards on 209 carries (4.5 yards per carry) and six touchdowns. Michel did all of that despite not appearing in three games and losing a lot of snaps to James White.
With that in mind, it's clear the Patriots have big plans for Michel going forward and he could see his role increase even more. However, what exactly should you expect from the running back in his sophomore season?
Here are three last-minute predictions for New England Patriots running back Sony Michel in 2019.
3. 300-Plus Carries
Sony Michel carried the ball 209 times last year. With the fact that he only played in 13 games last year, that's a hefty number. If he played in all 16 games, that would have jumped up to 257 carries on that current projection.
257 carries would've made Michel the fourth-most used running back in the NFL. The only players higher would've been David Johnson (258), Saquon Barkley (261), and Ezekiel Elliott (304).
Michel's workload was clearly already pretty high last year. The Patriots have made it pretty obvious that it's only going to expand.
300 carries might sound bold considering only one player hit that mark last year, but it's not the craziest jump from the number he was projected last year.
It might seem even more bold considering this is the New England Patriots. People tend to see the Patriots as a heavy pass-first offense. However, Tom Brady is not getting any younger. The Patriots will want to run the ball more to keep his workload a little bit lighter.
That lighter workload will benefit them come playoff time, and could add some extra years onto Brady's career.
It's also important to remember that the Patriots aren't strangers to running a lot. LeGarrette Blount had 299 carries back in 2016 for them. There's no reason Michel can't find 300 when considering that.
The other argument someone might make is James White. White is their receiving back though. Michel had just seven receptions last year. Meanwhile, White had 87 receptions compared to 94 carries – and 25 of those carries came in the three games Michel missed.
Sony Michel's going to be running for the New England Patriots a lot in 2019. 300 is realistic.
2. 1,200-Plus Yards and Double Digit Touchdowns
With a lot of carries comes a lot of yards and a lot of touchdowns. Michel averaged 4.5 yards per carry last year. If he's getting 300 carries, that means 1,200 yards would get blown by on that average.
Yes, obviously averages don't stay the same every year, but Michel is an uber talented running back in a great offense. Defenses can't zero in on him constantly because if you make the mistake of slacking off Tom Brady you're going to get torched 100% of the time.
Meanwhile, Michel scored six touchdowns last year. He'll be trusted a lot more in 2019 and should get a lot of goal line runs. That means even when he isn't scoring on big plays, he'll find his way in the end zone quite often.
The New England Patriots have made it known that Sony Michel is their guy. He'll get his carries and has proven he can do a lot with them. The numbers will reflect that in 2019.
1. Under 15 Receptions
Hey, they can't all be great predictions right?
Sony Michel is not a pass catcher in this offense. He had just seven receptions in 13 games last year despite being their main back in that time.
This is mainly due to James White. There's no reason for the Patriots to mess around with other receiving backs when White will give you ridiculous production in that role.
With that in mind, if Michel's getting the ball you can safely assume it's via the run. The only reason I'm even jumping the number up to 15 is because the Patriots will likely want to keep defenses on their toes.
With Michel used almost exclusively as a runner, he could find himself open on a few screen passes. You could assume the defenses will forget about him in the passing game every once in a while. The Patriots will likely use this hoping they can surprise them and pick up some big plays in the process.
However, Bill Belichick doesn't mess around often. He's perfectly fine putting White in the game for pass plays and Michel in the game for run plays. No need to hide what you're doing until defenses show they can stop it.
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