The Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians play the final game of a three-game set on Sunday. The Guardians won the first game on Friday night, their seventh win over the Twins in their last ten matchups. The Guardians also won both games over the Twins early in the season when the middle game didn't begin due to a rain delay. Both teams are battling for the American League Central Title, with the Twins sitting 3.5 games back of the Guardians for first. The Royals sit in the middle of the two teams, just a game back of Cleveland. It is time to continue our MLB odds series with a Twins-Guardians prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Chris Paddack starts for the Twins, who have been their weakest pitcher in terms of ERA. Paddack has some quality starts this season, but he's also been blown up a couple of times with games of four, five, and nine earned runs. It's been an up-and-down season for Paddack, and the unfortunate thing is you never know which version of him will show up to the park.
Tanner Bibee is another pitcher with a tendency to get blown up. He has some good scoreless outings, which, strangely enough, is against good offenses like the Rangers and Braves. However, he has poor outings against the White Sox, Angels, and Tigers. Which version of Bibee will we get in this game? He had a five-hit, one-run outing over 5 1/3 innings against the Twins in April.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Twins-Guardians Odds
Minnesota Twins: -1.5 (+158)
Moneyline: -102
Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-192)
Moneyline: -116
Over: 7.5 (-120)
Under: 7.5 (-102)
How to Watch Twins vs. Guardians
Time: 1:40 PM ET/10:40 AM PT
TV: MLB Network, Bally Sports Network
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Twins Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Twins have been successful when Paddack takes the mound this season, winning six of seven games before his poor outing against the Yankees last start. Paddack has bounced back after every poor start so far, and the Guardians are a team he can do it against again in this outing.
Why The Guardians Will Cover The Spread/Win
Tanner Bibee had a quality start earlier in the season against the Twins, allowing one earned run over 5 1/3 innings. These offenses match up well, so it's the pitching matchup that you need to capitalize on, and Bibee has shown an ability to shut down the Twins.
The Guardians also win the bullpen matchup, as they have a combined 1.91 ERA. The Twins bullpen hasn't been in great form, with a 4.18 ERA over their last three games.
Final Twins-Guardians Prediction & Pick
The possibility of Paddack and Bibee having poor outings in this game is too good to pass up. The Twins and Guardians don't have the best offenses, but these pitchers have poor outings against some worse offenses. It makes sense that the total is this low, considering both teams are averaging four runs/nine over their last ten games, but when these starting pitchers have given up 4+ runs in almost half their starts, it's worth taking a shot at the over.
One issue is that the Guardians' bullpen has a sub-2.00 ERA in almost every situation, so if Bibee has a strong start, the Twins may not contribute to the over. However, the Twins bullpen has a 4.18 ERA over their last three starts, so who's to say the Guardians won't get to eight runs by themselves?
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Final Twins-Guardians Prediction & Pick: Over 7.5 (-120)
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