Tyler Lockett has long been one of the most overlooked and underrated players in the NFL. A 3-star recruit out of high school, Lockett played four seasons at Kansas State and entered the NFL as a third-round draft pick. He quickly became a safety blanket for former Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson and an All-Pro return specialist. But what is Lockett's fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season? Is he worth drafting?

Lockett isn't a guy that gets talked about amongst the elites, but he puts up the production of guys who are very highly regarded in this league. He doesn't miss games, he's always open, and he just puts his head down and goes to work.

Though Lockett flies under the radar, his production is still extremely solid and consistent. In each of the last five seasons, he has totaled over 1,000 scrimmage yards and at least 8 touchdowns. Garrett Wilson of the New York Jets is touted as the next great wide receiver and he had just over 1,100 yards and four touchdowns last year. Granted, he was a rookie, so people obviously expect his numbers to rise, particularly with Aaron Rodgers getting him the rock. Still, it's just a baseline comparison to illustrate the value Lockett has produced year in, year out.

 

Team Situation

Okay, as much as I love Tyler Lockett's game, I sadly believe his role will reduce considerably this season, especially from a fantasy football perspective. Although the two have pretty similar stats, and Lockett actually had a better fantasy season last year, D.K. Metcalf is the true No. 1 receiver on the Seahawks. He's such a physical mismatch against any defensive back and commands the No. 1 defensive matchup for any opponent.

But the Seahawks also drafted Jaxon Smith-Njigba out of Ohio State in the first round of this year's draft. In 2021, as the third option (kind of) on the Buckeyes behind Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, Smith-Njigba put up 1,600 yards and nine touchdowns. He proved to be entirely impossible to guard in that season's Rose Bowl against Utah, racking up 347 yards and three touchdowns.

Smith-Njigba could be the best rookie receiver — outside of Justin Jefferson and maybe Ja'Marr Chase — to enter the NFL in a very long time. He's such an elite route runner and possesses ridiculous body control along with high-level skill in every trait you could ask for.

I'm expecting Smith-Njigba to eat up a large chunk of the target share, likely at the expense of Lockett's production. He's much more dynamic than Lockett and could find himself open in the end zone more frequently as a result. JSN's arrival to the Seahawks this season is the main concern I have for Tyler Lockett's fantasy outlook. There's only one ball to go around.

 

Player Profile

Lockett's biggest strength is route-running, but he also possesses surprisingly strong spectacular catch traits given he's not the most physically or athletically gifted player. He actually finished as the No. 13 receiver in PPR leagues last year, which is very impressive, particularly given he had a new quarterback in the building.

The connection between Lockett and Geno Smith was strong off the bat. The two connected nine times for 107 yards, and although Lockett didn't score his first touchdown until Week 5, he found the end zone in six straight weeks in the back half of the season.

Lockett's most valuable trait for fantasy football is perhaps his availability. He has appeared in 16 games every year of his career except 2016, when he played in 15 games. As we all know, injuries are the most frustrating aspect of fantasy football. At the very least, you can count on Lockett being on the field.

 

Projection and Draft Value

The constant availability Tyler Lockett brings to fantasy football is enticing, but his inconsistency (fantasy-wise) can be cause for concern. Lockett is a bit of a boom-or-bust player, partly because he's truly suited to be a No. 2 wide receiver. For example, in Week 6 of the 2020 season, Lockett caught 15 passes for 200 yards and three touchdowns. It was a truly remarkable performance. The rest of the season however, he eclipsed 70 yards just once and had more than six catches just twice.

Lockett's average draft position (ADP) is No. 73 overall and No. 32 amongst receivers, per FantasyPros. That's WR3 territory, which I honestly think is the upper limit for drafting him this year.

There are too many mouths to feed in the Seahawks offense, including a strong run game, which may eat up red zone touchdowns. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is younger and more athletic. While Lockett has amazing upside potential, you're not likely to get that kind of fantasy football production week-to-week, and there are bound to be weeks where Lockett puts up minimal numbers.

Lockett is a great player who has a ton of situational value, but for fantasy football, I'm considering him a low-end WR3 and more likely a third or fourth bench option to fill the flex spot. It's possible he ends up with WR2 numbers, particularly if he stays fully healthy — which most players don't — but it's just hard to count on him to carry your squad every week.