What Novak Djokovic needs to do at US Open to overtake Carlos Alcaraz in ATP rankings

The US Open is now upon us following an epic Cincinnati Open final between Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz. In what was one of the best Masters finals in recent memory, Djokovic emerged victorious over Alcaraz in a 5-7, 7-6 (7), 7-6 (4) win that lasted nearly four hours.

Given that Alcaraz made the final, his No. 1 seeding was secure regardless of the result as he will now enter the US Open as the top seed. However, Novak Djokovic is now in prime position to overtake him in the ATP rankings when the action commences in Flushing Meadows.

What are the current rankings?

Given that Djokovic missed the entire US hard-court season, he got a big boost from winning his third Cincinnati Open title with an additional 1,000 points. Given that Alcaraz only made the quarterfinals last year, he, too, got a boost in the rankings with 420 points which gives him the slightest 20-point lead over the Serbian superstar.

1. Carlos Alcaraz — 9,815 points

2. Novak Djokovic — 9,795 points

What does Novak Djokovic need to do to overtake Carlos Alcaraz?

Alcaraz is now in a tricky position. Given that he won his first-ever Grand Slam at the US Open last year, he stands to earn no points in Flushing Meadows. Instead, he has to make sure he wins a second US Open title in order to maintain the 2,000 points he won last year.

As aforementioned, Djokovic missed the entire US Open last year. That means he could earn as many as 2,000 points should he emerge victorious. But given that he's just 20 points behind Alcaraz, all he needs is just one win at the US Open in order to overtake the young Spaniard.

If Alcaraz exits the tournament early on or even finishes as a runner-up, he could see the gap between him and Djokovic increase even further. For example, if Alcaraz goes out in the quarterfinal stage, he will lose 1,640 points.

Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz scenarios

Assuming Alcaraz retains his US Open crown, he will stay at 9,815 points. But how big will the gap be between him and Djokovic depending on the latter's results? Let's take a look.

As one can see, it's imperative that Alcaraz defends his points as even if he beats Djokovic in a potential final, he will still fall 1,180 points behind his close rival. Should he lose to Djokovic in the final, the deficit could be as much as 2,780 points. It's much worse should Alcaraz exit the tournament earlier.

Beyond the US Open

Alcaraz's best hope is for Djokovic to exit before the semifinal stage and for himself to regain the No. 1 ranking in the upcoming tournaments in Astana, Basel and Paris where he exited early. The good news for the 20-year-old is he's not defending too many points until February so he can only gain points from the US Open onwards.

Djokovic, meanwhile, will be defending just over 5,000 points from the US Open onwards until February. The No. 1 ranking has already changed hands six times between the duo in 2023 — one can expect even more changes in the next six months.