A Minnesota Vikings Trey Lance trade is possible. After the San Francisco 49ers demoted the No. 3 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, Lance is now on the market. The Vikings are a logical destination, as Kirk Cousins just turned 35 and the franchise has no real succession plan in place. However, if this deal does happen, it has to happen on the Vikings' terms because the perfect Trey Lance trade that the Vikings must offer the 49ers doesn’t include much.

The perfect Vikings-Trey Lance trade is Minnesota giving up little

Trey Lance doesn’t just represent a failure with the No. 3 overall pick in the draft. Remember, the 49ers traded up with the Miami Dolphins, giving up a No. 12 in 2021, a third-round pick in 2022, a first-round pick in 2022, and a first-round pick in 2023.

These picks ended up changing hands several times in the following weeks, months, and years, but they were used directly to help teams acquire Jalen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, Bradley Chubb, DeVonta Smith, and Micah Parsons.

Think Kyle Shanahan would rather have those players on the roster instead of Lance?

That’s obviously not how it works, but it shows you the sheer magnitude of what the 49ers gave up for the chance to draft Lance.

Going into that draft, it’s not like there weren’t a lot of question marks surrounding Lance, either. Yes, he is big, athletic, and talented. By all accounts, he's also been a hard worker in the NFL. However, he was a one-year starter at North Dakota State who lost a year to COVID-19. Lance appeared in 19 college games, throwing just 318 career passes.

In FCS, Lance and his Bison teammates dominated the competition, and the QB ran a simplistic offense because of the talent difference. In other words, he may be a good pro signal-caller someday, but he’s incredibly raw.

The good news is Lance is going into his third NFL season, and he’s still just 23. The bad news that comes along with that is his contract, which has a $9.3 million cap hit this year and is fully guaranteed with a $10.8 million figure next year. That’s not bad at all for s starting QB, but it’s a little rich for a developmental backup.

When you close your eyes and hear Lance’s profile, he sounds like a fourth- or fifth-round pick who is making half a million dollars, not $10 million.

So, in the end, that’s what the Vikings should give the 49ers in a Trey Lance trade. A fourth-round pick in 2024 and a conditional fifth-round pick in 2025.

Minnesota has at least one fourth-round pick (from the Lions) and maybe two (unless Jalen Reagor has a career year and they have to give the pick to the Philadelphia Eagles) in 2024.

They also have two fifths in 2025, as they own the Cleveland Browns selection in that round. And the conditional aspect can be that if Lance starts, say, eight games for the Vikings in 2025, it bumps up to a fourth-rounder, and if he starts 16 or more it jumps to a third.

This is about the best the 49ers can hope to do for Lance right now, and if the Vikings have to give up a fourth and even a third for a starting QB, that’s a steal. And if you’re out a fourth and a fifth for taking a swing at a franchise QB, so be it.

Quarterback isn’t the most pressing need for the Vikings heading into Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season, but it is the biggest long-term question mark. That’s why this deal makes so much sense.