With only two weeks remaining in the 2018 NFL regular season, the playoff picture is still far from clear. Three teams have clinched their division in the NFC, while six teams vie for the conference's final three playoff spots. The playoff picture in the AFC is even murkier, as only two teams have clinched a playoff berth, and an additional eight teams are within striking distance.
With 19 teams still in the hunt, the majority of NFL teams are still playing for football's ultimate prize. But what about the 13 teams that have been eliminated from playoff contention? They still have to suit up on Sunday, and when they do, they won't be playing for the opportunity to play in January — but they will be playing for draft position.
Intentionally losing games isn't an actual phenomenon in today's NFL, where careers are short and no job is truly safe. And drafting is just as much art as science, so an early selection doesn't ensure future success.
Even “sure thing” college prospects rarely pan out as analysts promise. The Texans won the “Reggie Bush Sweepstakes” but didn't draft Reggie Bush, who failed to blossom during five injury-ridden seasons in New Orleans. The Colts went on a firing spree after their front office's “Suck for Luck” effort netted Indianapolis a sure-fire slam-dunk franchise quarterback. Seven years and three winning seasons later, we can say with certainty that while Andrew Luck isn't a bust, he also isn't the second coming of Peyton Manning.
That being said, early draft picks do have value, and a handful of teams would benefit more than the rest if they end up losing their next two matchups. To be clear, I'm not advocating for these teams to lose on purpose. They've been doing a fine job losing by accident; I'm just advising them to stay the course.
Finding your favorite team on this list doesn't absolve you from your responsibility to root for a victory on Sunday. But if there ever was a time to throw that undrafted rookie quarterback under center to see what he's made of, that time is now.
5. Green Bay Packers
When determining draft order, strength of schedule is the first tiebreaker for teams with identical records. The Packers would be much higher on this list if not for their tie in Week 2, which essentially negates their significant strength-of-schedule advantage. The Packers still make this list because they're a playoff-caliber team — provided Aaron Rodgers is healthy for 2019 — with a rare opportunity for an early pick.
And the tank may already be in motion, as the Packers QB could be shut down for the rest of the season. Given that the five teams ahead of Green Bay each face beatable opponents, if a Rodgers-free Packers team loses out, they could potentially end up with a top-six pick.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are in the midst of a difficult season, but given their talent on the defensive side of the ball, a simple quarterback change could catapult them back to the playoffs in 2019. The Jaguars have more to lose than gain over their last two games, as their .551 strength of schedule is one of the highest in the league.
Since the next five teams behind them have identical records, a single victory could cause the Jags to drop five spots to pick No. 10. But with a pair of losses, Jacksonville could easily jump into the top four.
3. San Francisco 49ers
For the second straight season, the 49ers have proven to be bad losers at the end of the year. In 2017, the one-win Niners rattled off five straight victories to end the season. This year, after holding the rights to the top pick, San Francisco doubled its win total by defeating two teams with playoff aspirations.
The 49ers now sit at pick No. 4, but will likely end up in the top three if they quit their winning ways. The saving grace for San Francisco is the upcoming schedule, which includes two of the NFC's top teams. The 49ers are already in position to improve next season with the return of injured quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Adding a top pick will only increase their chances of success in 2019.
2. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are another team expected to take a major step forward next season. Even without injured running back Devonta Freeman, the Falcons have a potent offense, but their defense is in desperate need of a talent upgrade. Atlanta could find that talent at its current spot at pick No. 6, and the team has the opportunity to pick even higher, given their low .493 strength of schedule.
However, the Falcons have two problems: they previously defeated the two beatable opponents left on their schedule, and a single victory could drop them out of the top 10. The Falcons have perhaps the widest range of outcomes given their streaky nature and their strength-of-schedule advantage.
1. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals currently hold the first overall selection in next year's draft, and they also control their own destiny. Even if both Arizona and the fellow 3-10 Oakland Raiders lose out, the Cardinals will retain the top pick thanks to Oakland's league-high .562 strength of schedule.
As the NFL's worst team, the only thing standing between the Cardinals and the first pick in the 2019 NFL draft is an unlikely victory.
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