Fantasy football season is upon us, and if you haven't begun drafting yet, chances are you will be doing so soon. Having your draft board in tip-top shape is quite important, especially when it comes to the wide receiver position. While there are a ton of starting caliber wide receivers available, it's important to not get sucked into drafting overvalued players at the position.
There are several factors that contribute to players becoming overvalued in the fantasy football world, such as name recognition, performance in prior years, or changes in their team. So with all that being said, let's pick out five wide receivers who are overvalued heading into the 2024 campaign, and see why that's the case.
Stefon Diggs, Houston Texans (ADP: WR 21)
It was a busy offseason for Stefon Diggs, who got traded from the Buffalo Bills to the Houston Texans, and it has resulted in a fairly drastic change to his fantasy football outlook. With the Bills, Diggs went from being a good wide receiver to one of the best in the game, as he produced at least 100 receptions, 1100 yards, and eight touchdowns in each of his four seasons with the team.
Now, Diggs finds himself in a Texans offense that is loaded with weapons. While he may seemingly be their top wide receiver option, that might actually be Nico Collins, who enjoyed a breakout 2023 campaign with C.J. Stroud throwing him passes. Tank Dell is also back after he suffered a fractured fibula in Week 13 last season, and Dalton Schultz and Joe Mixon will both be stealing targets in the passing game at the tight end and running back positions, respectively.
Simply put, there's virtually no shot Diggs will rack up 100 receptions in 2024, and there's a chance he won't even be the Texans top wide receiver. Diggs' fantasy value has already dropped as a result, but he's closer to being a FLEX option than a bonafide WR2 like he's being drafted as right now, and while he's certainly a big name, it may be best to hold off on drafting him unless he takes a steep slide down the board.
DJ Moore, Chicago Bears (ADP: WR19)
Throughout his career, there have been quite a few factors limiting DJ Moore's fantasy football upside. He's never had any sort of consistent quarterback play, and that didn't change in 2023. Not to mention, it was also his first season with the Chicago Bears. And yet, he managed to put together the best season of his career anyways (96 REC, 1364 YDS, 8 TD).
Those totals were career-highs across the board for Moore, and he finally seems set to have a consistent quarterback under center in the first overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, Caleb Williams. The issue (at least from a fantasy perspective) is that the Bears went out and got another number one caliber wide receiver in Keenan Allen through a trade with the Los Angeles Chargers this offseason.
Beyond that, Chicago also used their second first-round draft pick in 2024 on wide receiver Rome Odunze, who could immediately carve out a role for himself. Add in red zone threat Cole Kmet, and a trio of competent running backs in D'Andre Swift, Khalil Herbert, and Roschon Johnson, and it's safe to say that Moore's target share will be much smaller this season. Having Williams helps, but Moore isn't exactly the surefire WR2 he's being drafted as right now.
Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers (ADP: WR16)
The San Francisco 49ers wide receiver room is a bit of a mess, largely because nobody knows whether Brandon Aiyuk is going to be suiting up for them this season. Amid his search for a new contract, Aiyuk held in during training camp, and promptly requested a trade. Even with rosters being trimmed down to 53 players, there's still no resolution on Aiyuk's situation.
Despite all that, fantasy football owners aren't shying away from drafting Aiyuk. The problem is that they should, because regardless of what happens from here on out, it seems like his fantasy impact is going to take a hit. If he gets traded, Aiyuk will be joining an offense that almost certainly isn't as efficient as San Fran's, and he will be forced to learn a whole new playbook on the fly.
If he stays with the Niners, Aiyuk will obviously be productive, but there's a decent chance he's not going to be ready for the start of the season given that he hasn't practiced at all yet. This situation could change in the blink of an eye, and if Aiyuk does sign a new deal with San Francisco, he's a player worth drafting. But until then, there's no way that he should be getting drafted this high.
Deebo Samuel Sr., San Francisco 49ers (ADP: WR10)
The guy who is most impacted by Aiyuk's status is Deebo Samuel, and just like his partner-in-crime, he's getting drafted way higher than he should be. Samuel is a unique player since he has value as a runner and a receiver, but he was out produced by Aiyuk last season, and his value as a running back is limited so long as Christian McCaffrey is on the field.
There's a scenario where Aiyuk gets traded, which leads to a huge uptick in production from Samuel, but that seems unlikely to happen at this point. The most likely scenario is that Aiyuk eventually signs an extension, which leads to a similar workload for Samuel as last season (60 REC, 892 YDS, 7 TD, 37 CAR, 225 YDS, 5 TD).
The problem is that Samuel will likely be the WR2 behind Aiyuk in the event he returns, while also competing with McCaffrey and George Kittle for touches. The upside is there for Samuel to produce like a WR1, but drafting him this high just doesn't make any sense, and until Aiyuk's situation gets resolved, it's best to avoid both these guys unless they fall down the board.
A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles (ADP: WR6)
It may seem a bit crazy to suggest A.J. Brown is overvalued, but that could be the case heading into the 2024 campaign. The Philadelphia Eagles offense is coming off an incredibly strange collapse in 2023, and while it didn't affect Brown's overall production, there are some questions that will need to be answered this season.
The Eagles attempted to fix their offense by loading up this offseason. They signed star running back Saquon Barkley in free agency, and recently traded for Jahan Dotson from the Washington Commanders. Not to mention, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are still around, meaning that there will be more competition for touches than ever before.
Now, it's worth noting that Brown is still the de facto number one target in Philadelphia's passing game, but he's not exactly a surefire first round pick. Brown shouldn't slip past the second round of your drafts, but making your first pick is incredibly important, and if you reach too high on Brown this year, you could end up getting burned.
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