Alex Ovechkin is entering his 18th season in the NHL. But unlike most other players who have reached this stage of a career, Ovechkin is still expected to legitimately play a critical role in a Stanley Cup contender. He's going to be more than just a future Hall of Famer ornament on the roster of the Washington Capitals who are coming off yet another brief appearance in the postseason. While the Capitals are not considered among the heavy favorites to win it all in the coming 2022-23 NHL season, they should be good enough on paper to at least make it to the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Ovechkin is a major reason why. The Russian superstar, who just turned 37 in September, is still very much capable of putting up incredible numbers and he will have to continue producing high-level production on the ice if the Capitals are to seriously contend for the Stanley Cup. The expectations for Alex Ovechkin should also be lower than in the previous years given his age and mileage, but great players always have higher bars set not by those watching him but by themselves. With that being said, here are some bold predictions we have for the Ovi.
2. The Great Eight churns out one of his best defensive seasons
Stop me if you've heard this one before: Alex Ovechkin does not play defense. Ovechkin has taken hits for his supposed lack of effort on defense throughout his career. There aren't a lot of question marks about Ovechkin's game, but if there's one thing that has always been a suspect, it's his defense. So to expect him to raise his play on defense at this point of his career is, to an extent, quite a bold prediction to make. Last season, the Capitals are an above-average team on defense, at least in terms of allowed goals per game. They were 12th in that department, as they gave up 2.95 goals a night.
Per Natural Stat Trick, the Capitals were 10th with a 158.26 5-on-5 xGA. If you squint just enough, you can draw judgment that part of the reason the Capitals were having relative success defensively that season was Alex Ovechkin's body of work in that area. He was not going to win a Selke Trophy for the way he played defensively that season, but Ovechkin was not terrible either.
Granted that he only had a 17.9 percent defensive zone start rate — the lowest ever in a season so far in his career — Alex Ovechkin posted a 58.9 CF% and 58.5 FF%, which were both better than the ones he put up a season prior. We are not saying that Alex Ovechkin is going to suddenly turn into a Patrice Bergeron as far as the quality of his defensive play is concerned, but he can turn heads with what he can contribute on that side of the rink.
1. Alex Ovechkin becomes the oldest player to score 60 goals in a season
Okay, enough of the talk about his defense. This is Alex Ovechkin. It's always going to come down to how many pucks will he put in the net, right? Now, the oldest player in NHL history to rack up at least 60 goals in a season is Phil Esposito, who netted 61 at the age of 32 back in the 1974-75 season with the Boston Bruins. He is also still the second-oldest ever to accomplish that same feat, as he produced 68 goals in the 1973-74 season, also with the Bruins.
Scoring 60 goals now that he is past his prime and is closer to 40 than he is to 30 will be a tall order for Alex Ovechkin, which is also the reason why you're reading this prediction here. Even at his absolute peak, the best Ovechkin could muster in a season was 65 goals back in his age-22 season in the 2007-08 campaign. Saying that he will set the record for the oldest player to hit 60 goals in a single season is the kind that can put you on a Freezing Cold Takes alert. Or not.
See, everybody knows that Ovechkin is gunning for the most sacred record in hockey, which is currently held by The Great One, Wayne Gretzky. The Edmonton Oilers legend is still way, way ahead with 894 goals all-time in the NHL. Gordie Howe is second with 801. Surpassing Howe is something that can already be viewed as a foregone conclusion. Ovechkin, who has 780 career NHL goals might even leapfrog Howe on the list before the 2023 NHL All-Star break. It is still going to take Alex Ovechkin a remarkable scoring pace in the coming seasons to break past Gretzky's record. He could seriously threaten that with a 60-goal campaign in what could be his last great scoring campaign in the league.
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