Who would have thought the Houston Astros would finish second in the American League race? Critical losses to teams like the Kansas City Royals and Oakland Athletics were alarming signs that caused the Astros to slide as far as the third-ranked franchise in the AL West race. Entering the final week of the regular season, the Astros were on the brink of getting eliminated, but their veterans flipped the switch when it really mattered down the stretch.
Sweeping the Arizona Diamondbacks and winning two of three against the Seattle Mariners catapulted them to the AL West crown and a playoff bye. The additional breather for veterans like Justin Verlander and Jose Altuve is critical in October, so Houston will be primed and ready to go against the upstart Minnesota Twins.
Myriad pundits had the Toronto Blue Jays eliminating the Twins, but Minnesota swept Toronto in front of their home crowd. With the ALDS battle starting on the weekend, here are a couple of predictions for the Astros heading into the postseason.
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3. Astros will out-homer the Twins
Let's start off with a bang for the Astros fan base as there is a likely scenario that their squad will out-homer the Twins in this series. Minnesota was third in homers in 2023, but all the analytics and numbers are thrown out the door when the postseason starts. With playoff legend Carlos Correa on the opposing side, the Astros still have outstanding names like Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Peña, and Alex Bregman who elevate their production in October.
For Minnesota to have any legitimate chance against the methodical and experienced Astros unit, they will need to rake a ton of homers. However, that approach may come back to haunt them because it will result in a plethora of strikeouts, especially going up against a staff led by Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez. It may seem questionable for other experts, but there is a clear opening for Houston to out-homer Minnesota because of their tremendous IQ, vast experience, and superb power.
2. Twins will average under 4 runs per game
Even with a strong lineup, the Twins will have a tough time putting forth a high-scoring output against the brilliant Astros pitching staff. The trio of Valdez, Verlander, and Cristian Javier will be superb in this series, which will mitigate the strengths of Minnesota.
The Twins' pitching has improved immensely, so squeaking out a win or two may occur, but it will be more of the low-scoring variety. If Minnesota allows Houston to build up momentum early, it will be difficult to come back not only because of their spectacular trio, but the Astros have one of the best bullpens in the majors.
1. Astros win in four
The firepower and talent of the Astros will be too much. If it was the opposite situation and Minnesota had the Wild Card bye instead of Houston, it would be at least a five-game series. Pabl0 Lopez and Sonny Gray pitched two high-leverage games already, while the Astros' starting pitching is getting all the rest they need.
Lopez or Gray will likely pitch Game 2 and Game 3, respectively, so Houston has the early upper hand in Game 1. Yes, Minnesota has excellent offensive numbers, but they just don't have the overall talent level and experience as the opponent. The Astros are the better overall team and will advance to the ALCS.
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